While the number of homes on the market in San Francisco has stated ticking up, inventory levels are currently running around 15 percent lower than at the same time last year.
That being said, the year-over-year decline in inventory levels is currently being driven by an even greater year-over-year decline in new listing activity versus an uptick in sales activity, with the pace of sales in San Francisco having actually dropped over the past two weeks despite a relatively strong December.
Expect inventory levels to jump after the Super Bowl (go Red and Gold) and then steadily climb through June.
As someone in the market right now, a jump in inventory would be great. But, what is the basis for expecting inventory levels to jump after the Super Bowl?
Seasonality in the data- spring is a busy selling season and inventory grows in anticipation. Also realtors pay attention to things like weekends if/when people will be earnestly shopping open houses vs. sitting at home watching the 49ers. There too exists, a general bearish bias in the editorial.
Cue: “OH YEAH? WE JUST PRINT THE NUMBERS, YOU DON’T HAVE TO LIKE THEM!?!?!?!?”
More to the point, we have over a decade of actual inventory, versus simply “listing,” data from which to pull. And it’s not simply a matter of “printing the numbers,” sans spin, but understanding what the numbers actually mean, in order to accurately, and unemotionally, forecast the trends.
You do many things, editor, but you do not disappoint. You say that you present data “sans spin”, so as a deletable commenter, I will just let that be what it is.
Just look at the graph. The blue bars are the Januarys of each year. Every year except 2012 inventory has shot up after January.