Having inched up 0.3 percent in May, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area – which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula – eked out a 0.2 percent gain in June.
As such, the index is now 0.2 percent above its peak in the third quarter of 2018, at which point it was up 10.7 percent on a year-over-year basis.
But the year-over-year return for the index has dropped to 0.7 percent, which is the smallest year-over-year gain since the second quarter of 2012 and down from a 10.6 percent year-over-year return at the same time last year, and that’s with a dramatic drop in mortgage rates.
At a more granular level, the index for the bottom third of the market inched up 0.4 percent in June for a year-over-year gain of 0.9 percent (versus a year-over-year gain of 11.1 percent at the same time last year); the index for the middle third of the market inched up 0.2 percent but dropped 0.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, which was the first year-over-year drop for the middle tier since the second quarter of 2012; and the index for the top third of the market eked out a 0.1 percent gain for a year-over-year gain of 1.3 percent (versus a year-over-year gain of 9.3 percent gain at the same time last year).
Having inched up 0.6 percent in June, the index for Bay Area condo values managed to eke out a year-over-year gain of 0.1 percent.
Phoenix is now leading the nation in terms of home price gains, up 5.8 percent on a year-over-year basis, followed by Las Vegas (up 5.5 percent) and Tampa (up 4.7 percent).
And at 0.7 percent, San Francisco ranked next to last in terms of year-over-year gains for the top 20 metropolitan areas in nation, above only Seattle (which was down 1.3 percent) and versus a national average of 3.1 percent.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).