Recorded home sales in San Francisco totaled just under 1,000 in the first quarter of 2019. That’s down nearly 13 percent versus the first quarter of last year, the fewest first quarter sales since a total of 833 in the first quarter of 2009, and down from over 1,800 sales in the first quarter of 2004.
At the same time, keep in mind that listed inventory levels in San Francisco were running an average of over 40 percent higher on a year-over-year basis from December of 2018 through February of this year.
What was the listed inventory in Q1 2009?
Listed inventory levels from December 2008 through February 2009 (the months that matter for Q1 sales) were roughly twice as high as this past period, three times as high as last year.
I’m waiting for sales to fall to just one house, but have that house go for a billion (maybe a couple hundred mill…might be something older w/o dual bathroom sinks). That might seem to contradict the narrative that prices have stabilized, but I think we can swing it with the peculiar advantages that Small Sample Size offers.
BANG is running a series of Front Page articles this week about housing prices – which I guess relates to this particular story only to the extent that we can infer there are so few sales only b/c no one can afford to buy (which might, again, contradict the argument that they were even higher in the past) – and while it doesn’t, of course, meet SS’ standards, it will probably be more widely read…rumors of the latter’s vast army of unique visitors notwithstanding.