While the inventory of homes for listed for sale in San Francisco recently hit a 7-year high and is now running over 30 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, the number of homes in contract has actually fallen.
And in fact, the number of pending home sales in San Francisco (510) is currently running 13 percent lower versus the same time last year. That’s despite a roughly 25 percent increase in the number of homes listed for sale over the past quarter and the aforementioned inventory levels.
If I’m doing the math right, in absolute terms that’s still only 2 months of inventory.
Calculated Risk suggests today that based on national data it takes minimum 6 months of supply to push down the Case-Shiller Index.
It would be interesting if someone could reproduce the plot in the CR article to see if the SF MSA has shown similar properties in the past.
(Seems like I can’t namelink the CR post, which is a shame).