Inventory of Homes for Sale in San Francisco Starts to ClimbJanuary 17, 2017
Having increased by a hundred over the past week, the number of single-family homes and condos currently listed for sale in San Francisco now totals 401, which is 30 percent higher versus the same time last year and the highest mid-January total since 2013.
At a more granular level, the number of single-family homes currently listed for sale in the city (145) is now running 32 percent higher versus the same time last year while the number of listed condominiums (255) is 28 percent higher, goosed by teaser listings for new construction units on the market, the vast majority of which are not included in the aforementioned counts and the inventory of which currently totals 1,000 (which is 76 percent higher versus the same time last year).
In terms of pricing and expectations, 20 percent of the active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction versus 11 percent at the same time last year. And of all the homes currently listed for sale in San Francisco, 41 percent are currently listed for under a million dollars versus 47 percent at the same time last year.
Expect listed inventory levels in San Francisco to continue to climb through June or July.
Comments from Plugged-In Readers
The key point is all the way at the bottom:
“And of all the homes currently listed for sale in San Francisco,  percent are currently listed for under a million dollars versus  percent at the same time last year.”
Is it really that relevant that the number of houses with price cuts have increased from 11% to 20% when overall listing prices are still on the rise?
All data points are valid. And they all seem to be pointing towards a slowdown, but that could be (and probably still is, for the most part) a slow down in appreciation, not an absolute decline. So the increase in proportion of listings over $1 million is not necessarily dissonant from the other points. As they say…time will tell. But “crash” fans are not seeing a lot of support.
People have been predicting that a crash is right around the corner since maybe 2011
People were predicting a crash to the housing market 4-5 years before it imploded in 2008. Turns out they were right. Unlike you.
Nope. For a prediction to have value it needs to have a time.
I can predict that high tide is coming. Without a time, it’s no value.
Keep in mind that price cuts speak to expectations and values. And while the percentage is only 9 points higher, there are over twice as many listings on the market in San Francisco for which the asking price has been reduced at least once versus the same time last year.
And while the percentage of homes listed for under a million dollars is running 6 points lower, which speaks to the mix of properties being offered, the absolute number of sub-million dollar listings in San Francisco is now 13 percent higher versus the same time last year.
My point is not that the data presented is not accurate. I’m just doubting the relevance is the points duscussed. Here is a constructive proposal to solve this:
Put the values in a table.
1) Split it out into Condos and SFH.
2) split SFH into under 1m, 1-2.5m, over 2.5m
3) show data for listing prices, inventory and price cut %.
4) most importantly, show historical values for all the above that go back 8-12quarters.
This would allow for a really great discussion around how expectations (listing prices, price reductions) have changed over time. We could also get a sense if expectations are changing on the top or the bottom of the market.
Some of us keep track of 1, it is useful for trend spotting. Data for 2 & 3 would be nice indeed!
SFH Condos total
17-Jan 145 255 401
3-Jan 95 160 255
15-Dec 190 310 500
21-Nov 250 450 700
31-Oct 345 520 865
17-Oct 350 550 900
3-Oct 353 537 890
26-Sep 350 535 885
12-Sep 309 457 766
29-Aug 250 390 640
22-Aug 272 403 675
18-Jul 300 508 808
11-Jul 291 513 804
5-Jul 256 473 729
13-Jun 298 508 806
6-Jun 300 470 770
31-May 287 434 721
9-May 281 447 728
2-May 283 432 715
18-Apr 234 382 616
11-Apr 225 368 593
4-Apr 201 356 557
21-Mar 199 340 539
7-Mar 211 300 511
1-Feb 123 241 364
4-Jan 59 122 181
1-Dec 153 269 422
9-Nov 221 403 624
5-Oct 254 407 661
14-Sep 254 362 616
10-Aug 206 224 430
13-Jul 229 259 488
8-Jun 220 280 500
Well there is a very big difference between a prediction and a statement. Many folks were saying there was a housing bubble before the crash. So they were right. They didnt say when that bublle was going to pop, but that doesnt mean they werent right and their statement was useless.
I would argue a lot of people are once again saying the housing market is over heated and need not have a date prediction on when the correction will come for the statement to be true.
A date prediction is important because if you sold SF property in 2012, when some people were predicting an imminent crash, you would have missed out on the huge gains since then.
Sure but if you didnt buy a house then bc people were saying its a bubble, then, contrary to what you were saying, it had value but not a date. If you sold bc you thought there was a real estate bubble, the statement had value. There is value in saying things are over valued. There is MORE value in saying when that correction will occur.
2018 prices will drop. trump will crush many parts of the economy this year and interest rates are rising. prices in 2018 will be lower than 2016.
i got lucky and bought in 2011 at the bottom. 2.5x appreciation is great but not going to last…
No argument. Trump is a basket of unknowns. If he causes nuclear war, all predictions are void.
Bad marketing and bad advice has lead to a climb in real estate inventories.
Interesting thread. As a newbie to this market. I’m curious as to why the increase in city population has not been cited in this discussion to mitigate the percentage of decline. Is the tech industry to the South also in decline?
The economy is stronger than pre 2008 and, in spite of the current political climate, the country is stable. In addition, if we examine the stats for world class cities – there are no single family homes under 1Million. From my perspective there is room for continued growth. Why is there fear of collapse?
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