While the number of single-family homes listed for sale in San Francisco (254) is currently running 7 percent lower than at the same time last year, the number of condos listed for sale in the city (407) is running 23 percent higher.

And overall, there are roughly 9 percent more residential properties listed for sale in San Francisco as of this morning than at the same time last year, 43 percent of which are listed for less than a million dollars (versus 45 percent last week)

In the absolute, however, the number properties listed for sale in San Francisco has slipped 4 percent over the past two weeks.  And with the pace of new listings slowing, listed inventory levels, which include less than 3 percent of new construction condos on the market in sales offices around town, have likely peaked for the year.

Listed inventory levels should continue to decline through the end of the year and then climb in the first quarter of 2016, assuming typical seasonality holds true.

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by faceword

    Wow, I am surprised that there is less SFH inventory that last year. The higher prices are not drawing out more inventory?

    Guess there might not be quite so much of slow down in price of SFHs after all.

  2. Posted by jaguar

    I think things are going to change drastically, perhaps beginning this month, this week. I think sellers are waiting for a panic before they are forced to face reality and take action.

    A significant recession is mathematical certainty.

    • Posted by MyOddCommentHandle

      Wait until that SalesForce tower is built and the rest of it.

      New doc “San Francisco 2.0” said SF might become the richest city in the world bc tech/SV Is migrating north.

      For better or worse, this is just where it’s at. When we run out of rich techies, we run out of buyers.

      • Posted by faceword

        Agreed – I do not think this upward tech-driven rise in SF housing prices is over. LinkedIn is the incoming tenant on a big new office building at Howard & 2nd Street that is almost ready for occupancy.

      • Posted by moto mayhem

        i wtched that documentary last night. It is terrible and full of misinformation. I love that it was done by a multi-millionaire daughter of a senator pleading the case for the CHANGING SF from her childhood

  3. Posted by BayviewSF

    Market is healthy in general. However, there seems to be abundant new construction condos. City may have approved too many condo buildings.

  4. Posted by BayviewSF

    With the high rent, market demands more rentals, but builders like to build condos. There is a minor mismatch between demand and supply.

    • Posted by Dave

      Excellent point!

      Rental demand is high and growing as the 23/24/25 year old millennials choose to rent and not buy. If they could buy. This age group is the biggest within the millennial generation. Rental demand should be high for the next 7 – 10 years at which point this group will start to form families and buy homes. That is when another big upturn in home prices is likely.

      SF needs apartments and maybe some of the approved condo projects will revert to rentals for awhile? Didn’t One Rincon do that at one point?

      • Posted by curmudgeon

        One Rincon North came on as rentals, but has been bought this summer with the plan to take it condo. Haven’t seen any evidence (sales office) of that yet, but it’s presumably coming soon.

  5. Posted by soccermom

    Nobody buys houses anymore, there’s too much competition.

    • Posted by Dave

      Home ownership has dropped a lot in the past decade but the population has grown. Mostly immigrants and they rent. Initially.

      The millennial generation sees home ownership in a different light than immediate previous generations.

      I just invested in a rental deal in Mountain View and a large part of the reason was that it is rental complex and not owner occupied. Within a mile of the Google headquarters with most of the existing renters being Google workers who bike to work.

      • Posted by soccermom

        You can observe a lot just by watching the young tech workers.

        • Posted by Dave

          Exactly. The signs are out there. Especially strong rental market for the next 5 plus years. Afer that housing market booms.

          Look where folks are investing. Big folks, investors.

          The investment in MV I mentioned is especially strong because it is rental AND, plan, get it entitled for more rental density. That is coming from big investment groups involved in the project which has a “short” 2 or so year timeline.

          Rental is where it is right now. But not forever of course.

          • Posted by soccermom

            It ain’t over till it’s over.

          • Posted by SFrentier

            Gotta be in it to win it.

  6. Posted by Sabbie

    Chinese capital controls are working.

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