With sales having slowed and inventory ticking up, the number of single-family homes listed for sale in San Francisco (280) is now even versus the same time last year and the number of sub-million dollar single-family homes on the market has ticked up to 120, the most we’ve seen on the market in 2015.

At the same time, the number of condos listed for sale in San Francisco (410) is currently running 15 percent higher, year-over-year, while new construction inventory is up 80 percent.

The overall inventory of properties currently listed for sale in San Francisco is 8 percent higher versus the same time last year, not including 135 multi-family listings which is 3 percent higher, year-over-year.

Comments from “Plugged-In” Readers

  1. Posted by Dave

    Not definitive, but perhaps another sign prices have peaked in SF & the inner Bay Area for this cycle? Even a two person techy family has a limit to what they can afford.

    The inner Bay Area had one of the smallest drops in prices during the downturn (10% in many areas of Mt. Davidson) and has recovered and moved to record setting levels in the past 2 years. Many homes in my area are 15% above what they had peaked at in 2007.

    What this means for other metro areas is hard to say.

    Sacramento had a 40% drop in prices in nice areas during the downturn and prices, though coming back, are not at their 2007 peak. Sacramento is relatively more affordable than ever vis a vis the Bay Area as is true of many metro areas. So I’d guess those metro areas which have seen modest recoveries in prices since 2007 will continue to do so.

  2. Posted by BayviewSF

    New construction condo inventory up 80% y-o-y is significant. Is the new condo sales slowing? Or builders has produced many more condos this year? How many new condos will be produced and available for sale in 2016 and 2017?

    [Editor’s Note: New Condo Sales Slow In San Francisco, Inventory Up YOY (as linked and tagged above).]

  3. Posted by Alex740

    Prices have risen so much in the outlining neighborhoods over the past year, which have high rates of home ownership, that owners are cashing out in larger numbers now. With the prices in the more established areas of the city pushing out professionals and families with decent incomes, these areas full of somewhat affordable single family homes are looking more attractive. There is also increasing buzz about S/E SF and these neighborhoods are visibly improving which I think is tempting more potential buyers to invest while they still can which is fueling the rising prices in these areas.

  4. Posted by eddy

    We haven’t really seen too much financial engineering like we did leading into the last run up so other than just a massive bubble bursting killing demand it should be an interesting ride out from here.

    • Posted by two beers

      Eight years of ZIRP is the definition of “too much financial engineering.”

      • Posted by dwf

        Touche! Just look around, there is plenty. e.g. Sub Prime Autoloans Combine that with VW diesel shinanigans… or should we say criminal malfeasance … and throw in some half-price barrels of oil … you know the great unwinding has only just begun.

        • Posted by san FronziScheme

          cheap oil is actually a good thing. Remember 1999 when gas was at 99c?

          VW scandal? Suddenly our gas guzzlers look clean compared with these “not-so-clean diesel” generic boxes.

  5. Posted by Dave

    Got home from work and right on cue – a postcard from a prominent West of Twin Peaks realtor (family name carries lots of history) and this person says it does “appear” SF real estate prices may be “plateauing”. But that depreciation should not exceed 5%.

    IMO this person is right on. They note rental rates should remain high.

  6. Posted by Charlie

    Prices will go down next year, but not by as much as some on this board would hope.

    • Posted by steve

      get ready for the crash. late 2014 prices, here we come

    • Posted by two beers

      I know, right? We can count on the Fed to bail out the banks and RE once again by slashing rates to zero!

      Oh, wait….

  7. Posted by Sabbie

    Funny how this coincides with increased capital controls in China.

  8. Posted by san FronziScheme

    Well, I think everything will depend on whether the Fed and the Government in general will be OK with the mild recession that might hit the country in 1 or 2 years.

    After all, the BRICs are hurting pretty bad, the Fed is ready to pull the trigger, the Eurozone is not picking up the slack and the only real good news come from the good old USofA. It’s not a question of if we will get a recession, but when.

    All of this only 6 or 7 years after the end of the last big recession. We haven’t fully healed. Student debt is hanging over our heads. Some areas are still depressed with owners under water.

    This could push the US Gov to do a 2001-2006 redux: cut short any risk of a recession by pushing for “subprime” lending, relaxing standards, allowing more exotic financing, encouraging HELOC.

    Another possible bubble scenario: frustrated millennials saddled with student debt are seeing these big numbers and will figure that speculation is a faster way to riches than their meager paychecks. If they are allowed to borrow, I can perfectly imagine banks slapping the student loan on top of a mortgage (buy a 300K house, borrow 250, add the 80K student debt, and voila, good old 110% financing), with an approving nod of the Fed who will be happy to see this hot potato become someone else’s problem. If prices increase nationally, the Naught’s favorite pastime could come back and we will party like it’s 2005. Until the next big one hits.

  9. Posted by confused renter

    If the market were slowing down, we should see a signal in bottom third neighborhoods, such as bayview and excelsior, first.

    I’ll be keeping my eyes open.

  10. Posted by jaguar

    It’s just the USUAL 7 Year PoliticalEconomic Cycle.

    Check it out, or better: do your own research. Every 7 years beginning with year 2015. 2008 The biggest ever single-day crash on Sept. 29, 2008, 2001 9-11 the longest trading pause since the Great Depression, 1994 Japan dumps U.S. Real Estate & Bond Market Crisis, 1987 The Stock Market Crash of 1987 or “Black Monday” was the largest one-day market crash in history(at the time)… This dates back to the Great Depression.

    Real Estate Bear Markets have always accompanied the recession triggered by the 7 year stock market correction. The recession should be immediate, quite severe, and take place in full swing by next year (2016).

    Personally, I use the 7 year 90 degree Saturn Cycle and I have always considered Astrology (for lack of a better word) as my secret weapon in timing the markets. I’m expecting the financial markets to fully crash between now and the end of the year, usually October or November. I don’t think however, that the recessiondepression will last many years (decades) as many are predicting. The recovery should take us to the next test of 2022.

    Real estate values will lose a lot more than 5%. Look back at 2008-2011 for ideas. Our stock market at the very least will correct 20% from the top (14,400) but it made a significant double bottom in Sept 2011 and the Dow may test it at around 11,000. It’s been a roaring bull market and the downfall should be just as dramatic.
    The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen around 40% since June and the Hang Seng Index looks like it is in a free fall right now. Noted Hong Kong Billionaires have lost unbelievable fortunes in recent months.

    It is important to try not to panic and to remember that this is just a cycle, just like the seasons of winter, spring, summer, and fall. It will be a huge buying opportunity.

    • Posted by Ohlone Californio

      but it isn’t as if the economy as a whole has been experiencing a boom cycle over the past seven years

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