Single-family home values within the San Francisco MSA ticked up 0.4 percent from November to December and are running 9.3 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. At the same time, local condominium values slipped 0.5 percent from an all-time high in November but remain 10.8 percent higher than at the same time last year.
Keep in mind that while the aggregate index for San Francisco home values has gained 68 percent since early 2009, it remains 9.6 percent below its 2006 peak.
The index for the bottom third of the market gained 0.3 percent in December and is running 12.7 percent higher than at the same time last year; the index for middle third of the market gained 0.5 percent in December (up 9.2 percent year-over-year); and the index for the top third of the market gained 0.1 percent, up 9.4 percent versus the same time last year.
According to the index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to just below May 2004 levels (29 percent below an August 2006 peak); the middle third is back to February 2005 levels (11 percent below a May 2006 peak); and values for the top third of the market are back to the all-time highs they hit in June, 4.0 percent above their August 2007 peak.
Condo values in San Francisco slipped 0.5 percent in December, but remain 10.8 percent higher on a year-over-year basis and 5.5 percent higher than at the previous cycle peak reached in October of 2005.
For the broader 10-City U.S. composite index, home values were relatively unchanged in December (up 0.07 percent). And while the composite index is running 4.3 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, it remains 17.0 percent below its June 2006 peak.
From the Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, David M. Blitzer, with respect to the big picture being painted:
The [national] housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession.
The pace of existing-home sales in the U.S. dropped to a nine-month low last month.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).