While a seasonally driven drop in San Francisco home sales from October to November is to be expected, a 20 percent drop in volume versus the year before is not.

Last month, the number of listed single-family homes and condos which closed escrow in San Francisco was 30 percent lower than in October, versus a 10 percent drop from October to November in 2013, and 21 percent lower as compared to the same time last year.

And on the supply side, while the average number of homes listed for sale in San Francisco in September and October (the months most likely to produce a November sale) was roughly 10 percent lower as compared to the same time last year, keep in mind that an above average number of listings have simply been withdrawn from the MLS without a reported sale over the past couple of months.

Not reflected in the numbers above, the sale of any new construction condos which weren’t listed on the MLS nor any “off-market” sales.  Those sales will be counted in the more complete recorded sales report for November which should be out this week.

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by Live Smart

    This is a healthy and good sign: the market is recognizing reasonably priced or good valued homes (and even rentals.) If you are marketing froth, you are taking a huge gamble when the market turns. There is a renovated home on my street which has been sitting empty. I am unimpressed with the renovation, craftsmanship and quality of the materials. Asking price is unrealistic reflective of a flipper’s dream of maximizing profit while minimizing expense. Although self-interest would have me rooting for a high sales price to create a good comp. but I rather see the home sell for what’s worth which is much less than asking.

  2. Posted by Hitman

    At least some of this can be attributed to Prop G, the crazy communist proposal by the gang of 4 comrades: Avalos, Kim, Mar & Campos.

    • Posted by Orland

      Why do I so often get the impression that a large portion of the contributors here is composed of the Santa Ana contingent of the John Birch Society?

      • Posted by Hitman

        The Hitman is a true SF native – unlike all those Carpetbagger Commies on the Board of Supes. Look it up.

        • Posted by invasive species

          Hitman makes a strong case for increasing immigration, but how do we look up Hitman’s nativity?

  3. Posted by Q

    Hitman, if the drop was caused by fear of Prop G passing, then we should see seasonally abnormal higher numbers for December and January, reflecting the pent up demand. Time will tell.

  4. Posted by Hitman

    Maybe – but there is a growing level of uncertainty about the next piece of confiscatory legislation the city will pass. People do not have any confidence in the rule of law when it comes to property rights in SF. I don’t know what the next piece of crazy anti-homeowner legislation they will try to pass but I can guarantee that they will try to do something stupid.

    • Posted by Hitman

      Well, it only took one day for the Hitman to be spot on about that crazy legislation. Run the red commies out of SF!

      • Posted by two beers

        Hitman,

        You are wise indeed.

        Can you tell us how to preserve our precious bodily fluids?

        Savage Nation, brah!

        • Posted by Hitman

          I am not wise but in have dealt with these cuckoos trying to confiscate my property for many decades. It is no wonder I leave my properties vacant. While so many of the Eviction Free idiots complain about rents… they are too stupid to realize how many people like me choose not to play their game because I don’t like their rules. While they legislate the terms of tenancies in their favor, those of us who actually own nice properties just laugh at them and decide that accepting rent is more of a burden than a benefit. Soon enough they will be commuting from Lodi to protest while my homes sit vacant.

          As for bodily fluids,

          • Posted by invasive species

            Hitman, hoarder of vacant units in SF. Alert Eric Mar.

          • Posted by San FronziScheme

            Hitman,

            You should airbnb your property (30+days). Make the tenant lobby look helplessly while you collect killer rent and there’s nothing they can do about it.

  5. Posted by Not Bashing

    I would love to see a moderation here, as I am looking to buy. But for now, I am not seeing many signs of that on a day to day basis. The one I do see is what Live Smart referred to above – remodels and flips that have been done thoughtlessly/cheaply are a bit harder to move. As they should be, great development there! Still, lots of bids and tons of interest in any high to middling quality properties. Still a willingness not to discount for properties that need work – practical (read: structural) work especially. I will be watching with great interest to see what happens when the inventory returns next year…

  6. Posted by JR "Bob" Dobbs

    A slowdown was inevitable, and it certainly looks to be here. By that I don’t mean that prices are falling, just that they are no longer skyrocketing. Given the extreme appreciation over the last 3 years in SF, flat or slightly increasing prices would bring some welcome stability, as we certainly don’t need to endure yet another bubble bursting.

  7. Posted by paul hwang

    Yes the market is seasonally slow right now.

  8. Posted by teddy

    yes, everyone is anticipating prices in 2015 to both steady and slow a bit. the peak of the craziness is over.

  9. Posted by San FronziScheme

    For a significant fall in prices you need a significant outside or local event. The US is on an expansionary curve that could last another 2 years. I feel we are in a similar pattern as 1998 where craziness in the the sector starts to become too much too fast (Uber valued at 40B???)

  10. Posted by Not Bashing

    Agreed on the “another two years” and “significant outside event” (read external shock) points, my model suggests the same. The most you can hope for – if you are looking to buy in (as I am) is a little more inventory and a little less froth.

Add a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Recent Articles