While the pace of price increases has slowed from the record setting gains in April and May, single-family home and condo values in the San Francisco MSA continued to climb in June.
According to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 2.7% from May to June 2013. Up 24.5% year-over-year, the San Francisco Index remains 20.8% below a May 2006 peak.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained 2.2% from May to June and are up 11.9% year-over-year but remain 23.4% below a June 2006 peak.
The Southwest and California have consistently led the recovery with Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco posting at least 15 months of gains. Looking at the cities, New York recorded its highest monthly return since 2002. Atlanta was up the most at +3.4% and Washington DC had the lowest return at +1.0%. In terms of annual rates of change, San Francisco lost its leadership position with Las Vegas showing the highest post-recession gain of 24.9%.
Overall, the report shows that housing prices are rising but the pace may be slowing. Thirteen out of twenty cities saw their returns weaken from May to June. As we are in the middle of a seasonal buying period, we should expect to see the most gains. With interest rates rising to almost 4.6%, home buyers may be discouraged and sharp increases may be dampened.
On a month-over-month basis, prices ticked up across all three San Francisco price tiers.
The bottom third (under $457,184 at the time of acquisition) gained 5.4% from May to June (up 37.6% YOY); the middle third gained 2.7% from May to June (up 28.2% YOY); and the top third (over $781,428 at the time of acquisition) gained 2.1% from May to June, up 18.1% year-over-year versus 17.2% in May.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to September 2002 levels (43% below an August 2006 peak); the middle third is back to June 2004 levels (21% below a May 2006 peak); and the top third is back near April 2005 levels (8% below an August 2007 peak).
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA rose 3.3% from May to June 2013 and are up 28.8% year-over-year, 8.5% below a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Continue Climbing in June [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ San Francisco Home Values Gain At Near Record Pace [SocketSite]