Speaking of buildings on Taylor Street, as we first noted five months ago, the 1,920 square foot Royal Towers unit #2003 at 1750 Taylor Street was purchased for $2,675,000 in 2002 and subsequently upgraded with a new kitchen, baths and bamboo floors.
Returned to the market and listed for $2,850,000, the sale of 1750 Taylor Street #2003 closed escrow today with a reported contract price of $2,600,000, three (3) percent under the pre-renovated sale price it recorded in 2002.
I thought renovations didn’t make it an apple? I guess they don’t count when the price goes down?
It’s important to note a few things on this “apple”. It sold for $1354/psf. This is a pretty good comp even if down from prior sale. The building trades around 1000/psf (sans 2 owners in at $2k/psf from 07/06 whos day of reckoning awaits).
The posting here excludes a 2001 sale reported at $2,495,000. It’s then flipped the following year fort the $2.675 price as reported by the editor. This is a recurring trend I’ve noticed (and pointed out) where prior historical sales of an apple are excluded and this makes it really hard to ‘plug in’ so to speak. So before everyone gets all “we’re back to 2002” pricing, we’re still above 2001. Oh, and it also sold for $1.105 in 1998. So its well over 1998 prices by 100%++. Don’t hold your breadth for 1996 prices anytime soon on this place.
But wait, what about the renovation? You’re forgetting the renovation! I’m sure someone will do the legwork here eventually and I’m sure there are permits or whatever, but the listing pics from 2001/2 that I can find sure look a like those in the current images from the most recent sale. So I’m not sure the supposed kitchen, bath, floor renovations are accurate as portrayed in the this posting and the one five months ago. The bath and kitchen use the same cabinetry and the floors look pretty similar as well.
In fairness, the most recent listing does say:
REcent upgrades include new kitchen, baths, bamboo floors, dramatic lighting, new windows and electronic shades.
But I suspect they are using the term “REcent” liberaly when applied to the kitch/bath/floors. The lights, windows, lighting seem like recent additions.
My guess is the renovation was done between 1998 and 2001. But I don’t really know and have spent too much time researching this already. Maybe someone else can fill in the gaps.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/1750-Taylor-St-94133/home/12400396
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/1750-Taylor-St-94133/unit-2003/home/40457726
http://sfproperties.com/properties/prior/1750Taylor2003/index.html
“we’re still above 2001”! Yay! I guess that’s the new realtor rallying cry.
Of course, even that very mild achievement is accurate only if one ignores the nearly 30% inflation we’ve had since 2001.
So how about “We’re sill above 2001 at least in nominal dollars but way below it in real terms!”
How about the collective here stop trying to use single data points and ignoring real trends in the market? And while we are a it, let’s not ignore all the data points when comparing “apples”.
Mortgage payments in 2002 @80%: $14,267
Mortgage payments in 2012 @80%: $ 7,453
2012 payments in 2002 dollars $ 5,852
Any questions?
One more interesting statistic – curiosity got the better of me:
Purchase price @ 2002 interest rate to hit the same $5852 payment: $1.098M. Compare with the $2.675M price it got in 2002 and you can see where we are. Wow!
(Note all mortgage payments were interest only).
I’ll wait to see if anyone contests my point about this posting and the previous posting incorrectly stating the upgrades to the kit/ba/floors were not done post the 2002 purchase price.
Tipster, your analysis on mortgage rates is fascinating and enlightening. This sort of insight, a Delorean and 88 mph would be really helpful to many people. Please let us know where interest rates will be in 2022 when you get back.
“How about the collective here stop trying to use single data points ”
“The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,522, down from $1,532 in June, and down from $1,525 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, last month’s payment was 45.6 percent below the typical payment in spring 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 59.8 percent below the current cycle’s peak in July 2007.”
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120815.aspx
so are you saying interest rates are low? shocking news.
7 years of bear talk
2006 – Prices are too high – rent vs own doesn’t make sense
2007 – Prices are still too high – Google’s fault
2008 – Prices are way too high, the current strength is an anomaly and prices are gonna fall
2009 – Prices are finally falling – we were right – still too high – it’s gonna fall much further
2010 – Price collapse was prevented by a bogus tax credit – it will resume its soon – still too high
2011 – Prices should be falling now but they don’t – still too high – rents are on fire proving people don’t want to buy
2012 – Prices are climbing – but it’s totally artificial – FB and ZNGA funny money – still too high
There’s a clear pattern there.
Will we see tipster showing up with a sign “The prices are too damn high” and run for office?
They lost a fair amount of money on a 10+ year hold. There is a 2006 permit showing 40k of work (probably actually cost more). So, with the price decline, and the selling costs, they’re out at least 250k, probably more. Maybe a lot more.
Not quite the 8% CAGR that their realtor promised them! That’s the key takeaway for me.
a little editing is needed:
2006 – Prices are way too high
2007 – Prices are seriously bubbly
2008 – Prices are trickling down finally
2009 – Whoa, prices are really falling – fast!
2010 – Still falling fast despite all the free government money
2011 – D*mn, still falling despite plummeting borrowing rates
2012 – OK, prices are finally stabilizing and even creeping up a tad thanks to ungodly low interest rates
There is a clear pattern here – called the bursting bubble.
2008 – Prices are trickling down finally
2009 – Whoa, prices are really falling – fast!
2010 – Still falling fast despite all the free government money
2011 – D*mn, still falling despite plummeting borrowing rates
Prices don’t seem like we’ve had 4 years of falling prices, including 2 years were prices were falling “fast” throughout.
I Might be wrong though!
and I know Case Shiller is for the whole of the MSA, but I’m sure I remember it showing prices up 18% or so during 2010.
My wife and I purchased RT #2003 in ’98 and remodeled it very extensively before selling it in 2001, including lighting, electric shades, new kitchen, bathrooms, etc. I can’t see any changes from our remodel other than the floors; we put in maple floors, and they were either replaced or refinished. Interestingly, I always regretted leaving the original red tile on the balcony, and it is still there. Another change is that the original clear glass has been swapped out for tinted. A mistake in my judgment, making it look like you have sunglasses on, especially at night, though double pane low-e glass would have been a good call.
Eddy,
Very true. 2010 was a up-down year though. The summer saw the start of a second dip that faded in 2011.
Anon’s editing shows that he is either number-challenged or that his old Vista box has a problem with cached documents. It still keeps pulling realities from 2010.
Fine, it’s all pretty academic. Prices fell about 40% and have recovered from that bottom by about 4% (in real terms). Exactly how fast (or slow) it took to fall that far form the 2007 highs and how fast (or slow) it’s taken to recover that tiny bit are pretty insignificant.
The subject of this thread, a pretty awesome place selling at about 20% off the price from ELEVEN YEARS AGO (in real terms), basically tells the story of the last decade.
anon, you’re throwing numbers faster than an Italian chef his overcooked spaghetti on a wall.
40%? For what? 4%? Where? SF? Where I live prices are at 2008 peak. Your glasses are probably of a special polish displaying visions of 2010.
Since no one has attempted to clarify the details of the work done on this property I’m going to assume that the editor was mistaken on both this post and the earlier post about the details of the kitchen, bath and floors. It appears these were NOT done between 2002 and 2012 as so reported.
I think we can close the book on this thread.
Eddy, I thought I did clarify what has been done to this property. The editor was mistaken. When we sold it in 2001 it was essentially the same as it is now (I didn’t notice that the tub in the master bath was replaced with a shower).
Hi Larry, I missed your update amidst all of the fun bantering. Thanks so much for clarifying and love the insight / perspective. I agree the red tile needs to go! 🙂 And congrats on the 01 sale. Hope you continue to prosper. Cheers.
” a pretty awesome place selling at about 20% off the price from ELEVEN YEARS AGO (in real terms), basically tells the story of the last decade.”
Eddy Blows a SmokeScreen
Smoke Clears
“I think we can close the book on this thread.”
“Where I live prices are at 2008 peak”
My mistake. I did not realize you had moved to Wonderland. I was talking about SF.
Dormouse for president in 2012!
anon, sure it did
I updated the prior thread so readers might not be misled. And to summarize, here is the complete and accurate sale history:
2012 $2,600,000
2002 $2,675,000
2001 $2,495,000 (extensively renovated prior)
1998 $1,105,000
As stated previously, it would be ignorant to use this data on this apple (or any individual apple) as a proxy for market performance. Losing 75k of value in nominal terms over 10 years on one specific condo in SF is not sending anyone into financial ruin. Heckfire, there might have even been some equity built up over 10 years? Cheers.
I updated the prior thread so readers might not be misled. And to summarize, above is the complete and accurate payment history.
As stated previously, it would be ignorant to use this data on this apple (or any individual apple) as a proxy for market performance.
So use Data: ” Adjusted for inflation, last month’s payment was 45.6 percent below the typical payment in spring 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. ” Cheers
Exactly what does average mortgage payments in 1989 have to do with this place?