CFAH

819 Haight Street: Kitchen
A renovated Victorian at 819 Haight Street hit the market in 2005 asking $1,395,000, it sold for $1,635,000 ($240,000 over asking). No word on what role the buyer’s agent played in advising their client on how to “win” in a competitive situation (“pay more!”).
As a plugged-in tipster notes, back on the market today and asking $1,595,000. One and one-half rather nice baths then, one and one-half rather nice baths now.
∙ Listing: 819 Haight Street (3/1.5) – $1,595,000 [MLS]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by mortgage analyst

    I am calling it right now. This will not sell for or above the asking price. Take a look at what has recently sold in Upper Haight/Cole Valley. This will go for $250K-$300K less than asking.

  2. Posted by LMRiM

    Property shark shows $350K in the first loss downpayment position.
    The “break” point then is somewhere around $1.35M, higher if there was a neg-am loan involved. So, if mortgage analyst is right about relative value/prices out there, it’ll be cutting it pretty close.

  3. Posted by Jimmy (No Longer Bitter)

    Love the sink; I bought one just like it at Lowe’s for $250.
    This place fails the LBI (Lazy Bathroom Indicator) test — The owners would have been well served by adding two full bathrooms somewhere (preferable en-suite). That really pulls in the old, rich folks buying these properties.

  4. Posted by San FronziScheme

    I say it lingers for 3 months at that price, gets stuck in the fall and winter quagmire, gets 2 consecutive decreases down to 1.35M. Makes an attempt at rental in January for 5000 that will not fly and sells for 1.2M in the spring as a short sale. A 25% haircut from the bubbly irrational 2005 action. Still much more than 1M for a house in a less than perfect location.

  5. Posted by anonn

    Being actually on Haight is definitely its own thing, tho, Mortgage Analyst. I point to the mayor’s recent Cole Valley purchase. Yes, under asking, and yes, a very lovely home. However it was still scratching at $~3M. Ten years ago the mayor’s house probably only fetched $2M.

  6. Posted by mortgage analyst

    Forget about the Mayor’s house, what it sold for 10 yrs ago and today. Instead, look at:
    1424 Page, listed 1,089,000 and 2478 sf, inferior condition and no parking
    537 Belevedere, listed and not selling at 1,199,000 and 2039 sf, inferior condition, far superior location, parking
    179 Carl, listed 1,200,00 and 2140 sf and not selling, hard to say about location comparison, parking
    1027 Cole, short sale listing at 1,695,000 and 3000 sf, similar/better(?) condition, far superior location, parking and a $100k more.
    The relative value of 819 Haight is simply not there. Curious how the Realtor got to this “fair” listing price?

  7. Posted by Jeff

    saw the house Sunday – it is very nice & well done. You do have to want to live on Haight…

  8. Posted by Chad

    ” That really pulls in the old, rich folks buying these properties”
    C’mon now Jimmy. Aren’t all the old rich folks (especially the old rich white folks) busy crashing President Obama’s Health Care Town Hall meetings and hitting refresh every 5 seconds on their 401K because the Recession and Greed has drained them of over 50% of their stash-cash ?
    You really think an extra bathroom would draw then in ? I think not.

  9. Posted by anonn

    I saw 1027 Cole. It’s pretty funky. Yeah, I’ve been following all of those too. I might be wrong but in my opinion if you’ve got something large and outstanding for sale over there you’re still going to be talking about 800 a foot or more. A year and a half ago I sold something in Ashbury Terrace that went for 850 a foot and it probably would go for more like 800 now. Nothing is going to broach what that one on 17th street fetched around that same time period, like 3.3M or something. That one took the cake and I think it’ll be a while before that can occur again.

  10. Posted by Jimmy (No Longer Bitter)

    Chad, you can’t dispute the accuracy of the Lazy Bathroom Indicator (LBI) — 100% of the declining properties listed on Socketsite fail the LBI(TM) test in that they have fewer bathrooms than bedrooms.

  11. Posted by mortgage analyst

    anonn, I am not discussing 17th street or what a cherry property in Cole Valley will sell for. Instead, I am comparing this on Haight St property with 1.5 baths that is listed for $1,595,000 to other listings and coming to the conclusion that it won’t sell for the list price. Care to go on the record with your estimate?

  12. Posted by anonn

    OK, 2260 feet, is it? I see what they’re doing price wise, at $705 a foot. That seems pretty astute IMO. I don’t know that they can’t get it. This is probably one of the better blocks to actually be on Haight street itself other than the blocks across from Buena Vista. South facing yard too? It’s also attractive. Even though I haven’t viewed it in person I’ll go out on a limb and say it sells for a nominal amount less. This 1.5M to 2M market is a tough one right now, but I think it goes for close to asking, 1.585M or so.

  13. Posted by mortgage analyst

    Ok,
    so one could buy 537 Belvedere for probably under 1,199,000, dump 200K into it and have a renovated house in Cole Valley for for about 200K less than your estimate of Haight? If Haight sells for anything around list, I would like to meet the happy buyer to discuss some “investment” opportunities.

  14. Posted by Trip

    I know this area well. Friends of mine sold their place two doors down a couple years ago for $2 million (!!) when they moved overseas. Nice timing! Unfortunately, this seller is on the wrong side of that timing!
    I do like this stretch of Haight St., but I imagine I’m in the minority and it is likely to bring lower values than other nearby locations. The late night noise is really loud after bar closing time, and there is a steady diet of puke and sh*t from the over-imbibers, druggies, and homeless, although less so than a few blocks east — amazing how just a light uphill will deter that element (somewhat). The “medical” marijuana retail down the block also brings a criminal hanger-on crowd. Easy transportation downtown or to lots of other great neighborhoods is a big plus.
    This place looks quite nice. I hate the hideous granite counters (as I’ve said) and one full bath (with no tub?) just isn’t going to cut it. There are far nicer places nearby in this price range and they are going nowhere. A 30-year-old dot-commer might go for this in 2000 with stock option lottery winnings (hey, that’s my friend who sold 815!), but few who could afford and qualify for a mortgage for this place would want this location, particularly with the other limitations.
    In this neighborhood, I kind of like 738 Hayes (big 4000 sf flip that is sitting after several reductions — now at $1.875M) but being across the street from the PJs, I doubt that will move either at this price range.
    We’ll see if they are serious about selling. If so, I’d advise them to drop it to about $1.2M or $1.3M and see if you can get a couple of trust fund bidders to go up a little from there. Even if they get that asking, I’d leap on it as a year from now it won’t fetch that. It isn’t 2005 anymore (or 2006 or 2007 or even 2008).
    [Editor’s Note: We Oohed, You Ahhed, It Sold (815 Haight Street).]

  15. Posted by chuckie

    537 Belvedere has been on the market for 267 days and the list price has come down from $1.4M to $1.2M. 819 Haight is just starting that trip…
    http://www.sfhouseprices.net/blog/2009/07/29/537-belvedere-st-san-francisco/

  16. Posted by Bing

    We moved up here from Laguna Beach last September and are still trying to figure out this market. We are one of the 3 who made an offer on 4114 20th St. We offered $1.2, but someone offered more and all cash. We toured 537 Belvedere. You’re kidding, right? Also gave a hard look at 179 Carl, but decided the train noise is just too much. Plus, you need to add a kitchen and bathroom or powder room. Toured 819 Haight and LOVED it. First kitchen to remind me of the one I left in Laguna. But, I thought it was priced well and so, over my budget. Maybe not?

  17. Posted by anonn

    You know what, I thoguht it wast 2.5 baths. I agree with Trip in that 1.5 baths is likely to effect the property’s performance. Therefore, drum roll please, I hereby revise my guesstimate to more like the high 1.4Ms or so.

  18. Posted by anonm

    I’ll take a guess on this one. My rule of thumb would be 20-25% down from peak in reasonably nice areas, which implies something like 10-15% down from 2005. So based on my “bearish” interpretation of aggregate trends I’d guess maybe $1.45 million with a little luck.
    Based on my knowledge of the area, I’d be a little surprised for a nice place in this location to go for much above $650 psf right now. That would imply something around $1.40-1.45 million.
    So my overall prediction is $1.45 million. Of course, regardless of the price it sells for, I predict that its market value will be even lower in 2010. 🙂

  19. Posted by anonm

    LOL – annon’s 3:22 post came after my last refresh, so I had no idea that he had just made virtually the same prediction as me when I posted at 3:43.
    Not sure what it means when a bear’s estimate and a bull’s estimate converge…probably the same thing as when the different CSI tier lines cross (i.e., nothing).

  20. Posted by Michael

    When a friend of mine made an offer on her place in 2005 her big name agent advised her to increase the amount she wanted to pay by $30K to make sure she got it and did not waste his time.
    She refused, made her offer any got it anyway.

  21. Posted by diemos

    “Not sure what it means when a bear’s estimate and a bull’s estimate converge”
    Bears and bulls are allowed to agree on the present while disagreeing on the future.

  22. Posted by kathleen

    Great home in great neighborhood. Smartly priced.

  23. Posted by anonm

    Bears and bulls are allowed to agree on the present while disagreeing on the future.
    Fair enough, though it’s rare to even see [agreement in] prediction on the present around here!

  24. Posted by EBGuy

    one full bath (with no tub?) just isn’t going to cut it.
    Take another look at the master (err… only full) bathroom. A nice looking spa tub in there. In fact, I think that bathroom could easily work for a family of four, even during the “morning rush hour”: one in the shower, one in the tub, one on the throne, and one washing up at the sink (with a sink to spare). On second thought, maybe I’ll pass… (BTW, post of the week last Thursday, Trip.)

  25. Posted by ken davis

    Since it’s speculation what the agent told the buyer, it’s also speculation that the buyer may have wanted the house so much that they were willing to pay whatever the price! Blame WANT, DESIRE and GREED before you start to try and single out the agent.
    Oh yeah, and Tom DeLay is my lover and he sucks a mean….

  26. Posted by mortgage analyst

    “Great home in great neighborhood. Smartly priced.” – especially if one enjoys hearing a bus grind up and down a hill.

  27. Posted by auden

    bing, I had a friend that wrote an offer at 1.2 on 4114 20th too. Obviously they didn’t get it either.
    Why don’t you wait a couple weeks, then send 819 Haight a lowball offer if you love it?

  28. Posted by Bing

    auden, That’s interesting about your friend. Our agent was told there were a “couple of other offers” that were for all cash and over our $1.2. Maybe there were lots of offers that were lower, too. I’m keeping 819 Haight on my radar. But, being new to SF, we had no idea that there was such a negative element to that area (see posting from Trip). Our agent certainly likes it. Makes you wonder about fiduciary relationships vs. motivation to make a sale.

  29. Posted by Ken

    For full disclosure (and to qualify anything that follows, as I may have some bias!), I am the listing agent/Realtor.
    Thanks for the feedback and comments.
    We have had very positive feedback about the home and the list price overall. This is a home for for a person(s) that really loves and respects the architecture and the feel of an authentic San Francisco home with a long history (Built in the 1800’s).
    For those of you who had an opinion (positive or negative) and had not seen the home first, come on by this coming Sunday 1:30-4PM and experience this historic home first hand. You may very well feel differently afterward.
    BTW … It is a full, very nicely done bathroom up (tub and sep. shower), WC on the main floor. There is a beautiful south-facing yard. Expansion plans for another BR or family room down and bathroom if needed. Built-in sound system, too.
    You all might be a bit surprised that, although you do hear some street noise, it is not even close to being a nuisance … and that is without newer windows in the front. Not just my opinion but comments back from real buyers with agents coming through to view the home.
    Best.

  30. Posted by mortgage analyst

    “Not just my opinion but comments back from real buyers with agents coming through to view the home.” Er, if they were real buyers, then you would have sold the house. They’re not buyers until they have bought.
    Time and the market will tell all of us if the list price is correct or not.

  31. Posted by anonn

    Er, if they were real buyers, then you would have sold the house. They’re not buyers until they have bought.
    They may have been in the mix for the 20th street property for all you know, or real buyers for whom this house isn’t quite right. Or any number of things. Plus this Haight street property hasn’t been on the market very long.

  32. Posted by auden

    Bing, To me, Lower Haight is unique, fun and edgy and a place I visit friends from time to time, but it has the negative aspects associated with it that Trip outlined. Try walking the neighborhood at night and see how you feel about it for yourself (the pot club is on the 600 block by the way). 819 Haight is in a much better location for a million plus property than 738 Hayes however (Trip’s pick over this one). The Hayes property is right next to a tough group of project housing.

  33. Posted by LMRiM

    I thought Ken’s post was nicely executed – better imo than most posts we see from working realtors on SS.

  34. Posted by Trip

    Bing, don’t get me wrong. I like the Lower Haight and I think this block of Haight Street is OK. Rosamunde and Toronado are two of my favorite places, and RNM is another (bit more upscale). I don’t mind — and even enjoy — the urban, fun, edgy elements auden notes. Heck, I don’t even mind the housing projects nearby or the thugs they can attract, which is why imho the place on Hayes is a far better buy. I just wanted to point out that being as immersed in the urban edginess as 819 Haight has a loud and gross side that I’m betting most people looking to shell out $1.5M for a house would not be too comfortable with (nb, however, that this is not a dangerous area in the least — safe as anywhere in the city). The streets that are parallel to or cross Haight Street in this area are better suited for living (rather than eating, drinking and picking up substances ranging from mildly to severely illegal).
    Ken — nice post. Good luck, and if I were you, I’d beat on your clients to lower that price if they really want to sell. Prove me wrong and show what a fine realtor you are!

  35. Posted by auden

    Trip, I am confused by your commentary. Are you stating that there are not projects surrounding 738 Hayes?

  36. Posted by Trip

    Yes, sorry for my lack of clarity. There are projects directly across from the place on Hayes. I’m fairly certain that is why it is not selling. All I am saying is that this fact does not bother me at all and would not deter me from buying that place — that it seems to deter others is why it is a (relative) bargain imho. The housing projects in SF just aren’t that bad anymore, particularly this one.

  37. Posted by auden

    I’m not trying to pick a fight with you Trip, but Hayes is surrounded by some of the tougher/denser populated project areas in the city. The city of San Francisco also bought some of the surrounding duplexes in the 50s and 60s and houses section 8 recipients in their as well. It sounds like there are some project type housing in and around 819 Haight by your commentary, and it would be nice to be educated on them as I’ve never seen a large presence.

  38. Posted by auden

    I’ve had friends held up at gunpoint in the Hayes Street area, and I have personally had my car windshield smashed on the block over on Linden. Its a weird mix of gentification and the Eddy St Gang in Hayes Valley in this particular stretch.

  39. Posted by curmudgeon

    My perception of Hayes is that the project was awful before the Hope VI reconstruction (mid 90’s?), was good for a number of years, but has been slipping backwards in the last couple. I don’t have much more to go on that I’m seeing people hanging at all hours, landscaping has declined, and i also notice that parking is easy (which is a bad sign-indicating it’s considered turf). The fact that SF Housing Authority manages it is of course not a good sign. (Contrast with Valencia which appears to permanently better now that it’s managed by MHDC).
    There aren’t any projects near 819 Haight. I used to live around the corner…don’t even know the projects exist in that location. Everything is block by block in San Francisco.

  40. Posted by tipster

    Trip,
    You are out. of. your. mind.
    The projects are terrible. A wealthy lawyer doesn’t see the underside of them. Move near one and you will.
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/02/11/BADA15RGDK.DTL

  41. Posted by Trip

    Auden, I was referring to the projects near the place on Hayes. There are also projects near this place on Haight. They are a few blocks away at Webster. But they’re not bad; neither are the ones near the Hayes place in my experience. We walk by both of these projects on the way to and from my kids’ school all the time, morning and night. They used to be fairly nasty until the late ’90s when the zero-tolerance policies kicked in (and the rebuilding that curmudgeon notes was also a big improvement), but not any longer. I’m sure there is gang activity that reaches down here, but that is generally farther to the north. You’re just as likely to get held up in the Marina. But again, as I noted, people looking to spend $1.5M and up aren’t generally going to want to deal with these sorts of urban elements.

  42. Posted by curmudgeon

    Tipster, that story you link to is about Plaza East…nowhere near the properties we’re talking about. I assume you are commenting on all projects, but it’s not very useful as there is significant variety between housing projects depending on who is living there and how they are managed.

  43. Posted by anonn

    The house across the street from the projects on Hayes is of course adversely effected by its location there. The projects on Haight and Webster are about four or five blocks down the street, so they’re not gonna color many people’s perception of this property. Many properties in SF are within four blocks of subsidized housing. But if you pay attention there is all sorts of negative/criminal activity occurring in those PJs. That is not to say they aren’t a vast improvement from their former central courtyard design. They are.

  44. Posted by kathleen

    This area of the lower haight, between divisadero and fillmore is golden. I do not why people are comparing it to the 700 block of Hayes Street, a different neighborhood all together.
    I live around the corner,on waller. I cannot imagine living anywhere else in the whole wide world. The neihgbhors here, over the past 20 years, have invested so much care, time and effort to make this a perfect place to live.
    CPMC campus and Suboce park create traffic calming barrier. Plus there is street car. We are out of the fog. and there is our darling Duboce park wtih the ugly fence. And it is a family neighborhood with IVF twins everywhere you look.

  45. Posted by mortgage analyst

    151 Broderick has just been lowered to 1,595,000 and has 2500 SF VS 2260 for 819 Haight, is in a superior location, overall similar, perhaps somewhat inferior condition but is overall a much better buy to 819 Haight.

  46. Posted by Trip

    Price was just reduced to $1,549,000. An awful lot of homes in this price range have been listed in the last month, and dozens and dozens more have been sitting for months. Given the high price paid in 2005, it may not be feasible for the sellers to reduce it much further (i.e. they may be stuck), but if they can, I suggest knocking the price down a lot more if they really are interested in selling.
    By the way, 738 Hayes, which I noted above, was also reduced again — now down to $1,599,000 for 4000 sf recently renovated (but right across from some projects).

  47. Posted by mortgage analyst

    Real property records show a first for $1mm and a second of $350K. It was purchased with a second of $285K so some of the second may be an unused home equity line. In any case, there is room for the seller to cut the price some more but right now the seller is looking at a loss (after 6% sales commission to the great Realtor Ken who obviously mispriced the property) of $178,940. Where is our Realtor friend Kathleen who exclaimed, “Great home in great neighborhood. Smartly priced”. Yeah, I’d to use her to list my properties… not!

  48. Posted by anonm

    I cannot imagine living anywhere else in the whole wide world.
    Fortunately everyone else can. Hence the price reduction. I stand by my “bear” forecast of prices down 20-25% from peak for nice properties and hence a predicted sales price of ~$1.45m.

  49. Posted by mortgage analyst

    Ken,
    where oh where are your “buyers” now?

  50. Posted by Julie

    What ever happened to this place?
    I noticed that a new sign was placed outside the house today. Is it back on the market?

  51. Posted by gmlight

    Oh look, one day on the market: http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/819-Haight-St-94117/home/600275
    Asking $1.535M now.

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