1270-1272 Fitzgerald Avenue
We can’t vouch for the quality of the stated “$7,000” per month rent roll nor the legality of all three units (the listing notes “with permit” but then features only two meters), but from a cap rate perspective one can’t help but be intrigued by how the proffered numbers for 1270-1272 Fitzgerald Avenue (asking $699,950) appear on paper.
It’s a bit of caution, however, by way of the listing for 1636 Palou Avenue which features three vacant units and is currently asking $599,950. From the listing: “Identical building was sold for $1,100,000 3 years ago.” No word on its rent roll at the time.
∙ Listing: 1270-1272 Fitzgerald Avenue (9/5) – $699,950 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1636 Palou Avenue (9/4) – $599,950 [MLS]

84 thoughts on “The Income Might Look Interesting But Don’t Neglect The Principal(s)”
  1. Let me throw out some numbers and perhaps some of you more experienced landlords can help me go over them.
    Let’s say I put 20% down and get a 30 year fixed at 7.5%.
    I assume a 10% vacancy rate and spend 1% of the value of the property on maintenance (7400). I will spend another 5k/yr on water, sewage, insurance, etc.
    84k/yr * .8 = 67k/yr – 5k/yr = 62k/yr income
    3775 * 12 = 45300 Mortgage payment (PI)
    8400/yr property taxes
    10k/yr income
    Which isn’t too bad on an investment of 140k, but I can do better with less risk in CA munis still.
    And this requires real work, screening tenants, collecting on overdue rent, etc. How much is property management on a place like this?

  2. Let me throw out some numbers and perhaps some of you more experienced landlords can help me go over them.
    Let’s say I put 20% down and get a 30 year fixed at 7.5%.
    NVJ, i will stop you right there. you can get much better rates than this. for my 2unit, I have a 30yr fixed for 4.875% (using the new higher limits for non-conforming loans on 2 unit buildings)

  3. You got that rate on a non-owner occupied building? Wow, commercial lending rates are much lower than I realized.

  4. A 3 unit building in Bayview Hunter’s Point brings in $7,000 a month? I’ve already wiped my eyes twice but it still says the same thing. Whhhaaaa?

  5. Without the typical comments disparaging the Bayview Hunter’s Point neighborhood, can anyone give some insight into how / why the City seems to ignore blatant violations of the building / housing / planning code in MLS listings?
    This particular agent routinely lists homes that “are set up like 3 units” with full knowledge that the zoning is RH1. The City will deny unit mergers in million dollar plus homes because they don’t want to lose a “affordable” rental unit but remain silent as “affordable” single family homes are purchased by investors, chopped up with serial permits, and returned to market essentially as boarding houses. These homes will never return to the market as single family homes. Such actions do more to destroy a neighborhood then foreclosures.
    Case in point:

  6. NoeValleyJim – property management rates are typically 8% of gross revenue. Some will also charge extra to acquire new tenants. Even the best property managers don’t entirely offload all of the work from owners though.
    Two questions for the architecturally inclined out there. This is the standard “blah” box erected hundreds of times in the city.
    First – was there actually some sort of architectural concepts being employed here ? I don’t think that this is even Bauhaus or minimalist. It just looks like cheap to me.
    Second – if there is no architectural merit in this sort of house, it seems to make a great blank canvas for some sort of facade improvement. We’ve seen these Dwellified with sleek finished wood exteriors but that is now getting a little tired. What else can be done here to add architectural interest ? I’m thinking Crazy Laidley creativity myself. (In the early 80s you could get by simply with paint : paint your address in huge clipped Helvetica numerals across the front : 1270)

  7. As a comment on rental prices… there are a lot of games right now in trying to maintain rental prices. Free month rent; low security deposits. Units not decreasing prices are not renting. Goosing the rental income is a great way to trick uneducated buyers.

  8. Regarding the loan, isn’t the 4.75 for owner occ? (I’m pretty sure). Anyone with info on non owner loans- I still think it will me <7.5, but may have to be a 5 yr fixed to be in the 5-6 range.
    I think your vacancy and maint are too high. Should be about 5% vacancy if you price the units to rent! The bldg is remodelled so maint will be lower too.
    I’m not sure about the 7k in rent though. This area is definitely not prime SF! So maybe only $6500. But yes, this thing will cashflow.
    Why I still don’t really like it:
    1. Tenant quality: if you’re lucky you’ll avoid thugs and just end up with families. But you could easily get multi-generational in there, meaning more wear and tear, high water bills and ALOT of people per unit. Good luck trying to control that. Itll bebery hard to attract professionals to that area to rent.
    2. If this is not a legal 3 unit bldg (3rd unit non confirming) you bssically have a duplex with an illegal inlaw, which is a different animal value-wise than a legit triplex.
    3. Not alot of upside in this area IMO. I don’t see this property and location going tic/condo route, nor your tenant profile changing for a long-long time (but the obligitory Asian massage parlor may open nearby…me love you long-long time). And given the current tenant quality in that ‘hood, that may not be such a bad thing!

  9. 1% in maintenance? In that hood? More like 5% minimum. A friend of mine does the slumlording thing.
    Evictions are done with 3 guys with shotguns who blow the windows out. He has to keep a loaded gun in his coat pocket for showings (some of the showings have been set ups for robberies).
    He had to put the properties in his elderly mother’s name or no judge would ever evict for nonpayment.
    The tenants take the sinks and toilets when they leave. One in ten never makes a payment after the initial payment.
    One nice couple was a front for a gang who moved in with them and the sherriff refused to evict.
    The properties were burned every ten years or so. Fire response was non existent at night until a massive police response could be assembled.
    However, in his case, the properties were inherited and property taxes were low. Other than that, there are WAY easier ways to make money.

  10. tipster-was this in SF? I have a family friend who is a slum lord in SF (Bayview, Silver, Lake View) and I have never heard stories so outrageous. Sounds like Detroit.

  11. I also haven’t heard of a lot of stories along the lines of tipsters, however I would echo the “buyer beware” meme here.
    One must screen your tenants closely, and even then it can be a catastrophe.
    common problems in this rental demographic
    -people’s incomes are unsteady, so you’re often paid late/not at all
    -it is not uncommon for people to “share” housing. So you may rent to a single mother with 1 kid… but then you may find 2-3 more people living there which means higher utilities, etc. It is not always practical to have tenant pay utilities as sometimes they just won’t pay… and having no utilities can be devastiting to an occupied house.
    -turnaround time is often longer given the state of the unit when previous tenants move out. not always because of tenant’s sabotaging the place… sometimes it’s more that they didn’t clean well for the months/years they were there… or sometimes it’s due to overcrowding.
    A duplex near my block just had to evict some tenants. He rented to a single mom with 2 kids. within a short period of time there were 11 adults and 6-7 kids living in the 3 BR apartment. they trampled the grass to dirt and killed all the plantings (not enough space for them). The unit was trashed accidentally… due to them stuffing too much stuff down the disposall, and also by too many women flushing their hygeinic products down the toilet. also dry wall broken. but the worst was smoke damage. there was considerable smoke damage from many people smoking and evidently there were a few food fires. there was also siding damage.
    clearly, these sort of stories are NOT the norm… but if you go to landlord.com or similar site you’ll see that they’re common enough that you need to make it an economic input on your spreadsheet.

  12. I have an acquaintance who specializes in slumlording in Atlanta. By now he must own a couple of thousand units. He buys the very worst properties, and then works with the police to incarcerate and evict the routine drug offenders, prostitutes and other lowlifes.
    I have to think that he does the remaining residents (who are obviously too poor to live elsewhere) a tremendous service by clearing out the scum. At least, that’s how he regards it — almost an evangelical mission. He makes money at it, too though (by boosting the rent rolls).
    Although I think he oversteps sometimes like when he evicted a guy who’d had a heart attack and was in hospital when the rent came due …

  13. Slumlording sounds like a miserable existence IMO. No thanks. I’d rather have less units and deal with yuppies, soccor moms and hipsters as clients. At least I can (mostly) sleep well at night.

  14. NoeValleyJim
    Your math is too simplistic. First off, I 7.5% is high atm, and for a commercial property fixing the rate is not your only option. I have used arms for 30 years, and done fine – currently paying 6.6 on a number of million plus notes, and 3.5 on the crelocs.
    You are forgetting many tax advantages: two obvious ones being the depreciation deduction you will get, the other being the 1031 exchange option which is allows for flexibility as the asset changes.
    Tipster, I have been in the business for many years, and i have never heard a story in San Francisco like yours. Maybe it is true, maybe it is not, but at the very least it is extraordinarily unusual. Evictions with shotguns? You will be put in jail for crap like that.
    Jimmy, I am sure your friend believes he is doing the community some good, but bragging about evictions is not doing the community a favor, providing decent housing does the community a favor.

  15. As for yuppies and soccer moms, as I recall the building where the terrible, tragic dog mauling took place some years back was in Pacific Heights.
    Poorer neighborhoods have as many decent people who pay their rent on time and are considerate neighbors as richer ones. Service needs to be provided regardless of economic levels.

  16. No not in SF. Not in Detroit. Neighborhoods were about halfway in between as bad as that hood and Detroit. I don’t want to say where exactly, for fear of outing my identity.

  17. Eoral, I think I prefer his simple logic to yours. Got troublemakers? Evict ’em, charge them with trespassing if they come back (and take their pictures and send them to a mailing list of your friends).
    Imagine living in a place that is overrun with criminals, and you’re too poor to move out. You’re trapped.
    This guy buys the property and is aggressive about removing the gangs and thugs. I’d say he’s doing the decent people in that community a huge service by giving them a place to live that is safe and affordable.
    Of course this could never happen in SF.

  18. Oh, so it wasn’t even in SF, and you found it applicable. But you can’t tell us what city because somebody might figure out who you are. Hmmm. I wonder if those conspiracy theories of yours have anything to do with the paranoia you just displayed. Regardless, it isn’t as if you’ve ever shown this website that you possess an ability to rate the relative safety of U.S. ghettos.

  19. Jimmy,
    No. Simple logic tends to be simple because it is wrong. One person’s troublemaker is another person’s advocate. That is one of the reasons we have rent control in San Francisco, landlords behaving like little dictators instead of housing professionals. For every “thug” that I hear about getting evicted, I can find a poor person/family without resources who gets preyed upon by a landlord, so do not give me any of that simple logic BS.
    San Francisco has laws that protect tenants rights because tenants were taken advantage of. Is it unfair at times, sure. If you don’t like it, head to Detroit, I will buy your building.

  20. Well, ok, you win. But its hard to argue that the evictees are ‘community advocates’ when they’re photographed in handcuffs in the back of a squad car, with drugs and weapons that were in their posession 😉
    Maybe ‘dem Southern cops are just a bunch of racists?
    Wouldn’t ever happen in SF for many reasons, as you correctly point out… lawlessness is just one more reason to never be poor in SF.

  21. So I am confused, tipster doesn’t even live in the Bay Area and yet he sets himself up as an expert on local real estate? How can that be? Did you used to live here at least?
    Hopefully you can answer that question without compromising your secret identity.

  22. I’ll stand up for Double Oh Tipster, he merely said that his friend that uses shotguns to evict people lives somewhere between the Bay Area and Detroit – which I would assume is Lagos, Nigeria (go west from here and it becomes a city “between” here and Detroit).

  23. It seems to me like you are avoiding the question. Do you live in San Francisco? The Bay Area?
    Yes or no answers only please.

  24. Please do not provoke Tipster, since I still have a bet with him, dollars to donuts, as you all know, that no single-family house will close in prime PacHts for less than $1.3 by December 31, 2010, when everyone on socketsite is invited to our house for the donuts and coffee, at 11 am. We are all looking forward to meeting him in person, as he delivers the donuts. Only the best donuts, of course.
    No sign so far that he is even close.
    [Editor’s Note: We can’t vouch for “tipster’s” taste in donuts, but we will vouch for his being a local. And with that, back to the topic at hand…]

  25. Tipster post was indeed over the top (and most likely fictitious) but his general point is still valid. Think carefully before entering the fray as a landloard. Having been in the game for the past nine years you end up having lots of “what was I thinking” moments.

  26. uh, i have a dumb question. where is all these rich tenants’ furniture in the pictures?
    maybe the tenants are actually cockroaches that don’t need furniture?
    you gotta be kidding. no one’s gonna investigate this agent or her alleged rent roll? the mls says “rented” not “proforma”. someone please call the our favorite professional organization to complain.
    [Editor’s Note: You might want to double check the time stamp on said photos (June 8, 2008) before picking up that phone. That being said, double check eddy’s comment as well.]

  27. Can’t vouch for the accuracy – I wasn’t there, if any of it was made up, it wasn’t made up by me. I’ve known the owner since I was a young boy – I doubt he lied.
    It was just a VERY rough area and he knew what was necessary to survive in that area. He used to say that having a gun didn’t give him an advantage in that area – it just made him even, and gave him a fighting chance.
    Blowing the windows out with shotguns was how they got rid of the gang. They shot through the windows, up into the ceiling. I was just as surprised that they did that, but he explained that it was that or abandon the house, and my friend can be pretty rough when it comes to something like that. He was a street fighter and that’s just what had to be done.
    The gang ignored everything but that. Eviction notices, etc were just laughed at – and they apparently knew the Sheriff would never actually evict. Many months were spent trying to get them out of there. After my friend and his employees shot out the windows, the gang was gone the next day. Along with most of the house, apparently. The decided if they couldn’t stay there, they were going to take most of it with them.
    My point wasn’t that you should expect any of this, but only that 1% for maintenance was probably too low.
    The detour of people asking where I live was pretty much over the top. Completely inappropriate for a blog. Maybe my friend lied about all of this, but the stories he occasionally told me just made him seem like an idiot to keep at it, so I doubt he was making it up. After listening to this guy all those years, that line of work wasn’t something that held any allure for me.

  28. Conifer – 1907 Lyon Street closed for $1.23M on Mar 27. But that was about 200 feet south of your Clay Street “prime” Pac Heights boundary. Your bet looks pretty safe (for now) – 2203 Broderick and 2586 Clay are the cheapest current listings at just under $2M.

  29. yes editor you are right, i missed the photo date – my bad. and yes i saw eddy’s post and totally agree with it. had to believe that an investor would fall for these inflated rents. some thoughts for the prosective buyer:
    1) as mentioned check the legality of number of units. the permits on record appear to all be for a 2 unit building and, in fact, the permit to convert from a 1 to 2 unit building appears expired.
    2) the neighbors have had numerous complaints about the construction and previous fire in the building. maybe worth talking to them during your due diligence about what went on there.
    3) check out craigslist ads for bayview apartments. i only found 2 that were more expensive than 2 of these units and they’re in more modern in better looking buildings.
    4) when were those leases signed? probably closer to the june photo session when rents were a lot higher. no way imo that you’ll be renewing them for the same rate when they come due.

  30. Eoral- I agree that poor hoods are mostly decent folks. But in RC SF’ville, you have little control over your tenants actions. In the poor hoods you stand a good chance of tenants bringing in other roomates, making a little nursery, etc. If I were to slumlord it, I’d choose a city with more LL rights.
    As for yuppies and soccor moms, in general they are easier to deal with if you have high quality units and choose tenants wisely. That has been my experience.

  31. We have family friends who are own cheap buildings all over Lakeview, BayView, Silver, Daly City (one of my dad’s buddies has never had a job other than the family business)
    I have never heard stories like tipsters in SF but have heard of lots of deadbeats, people growing marijuana in the apartments (they steal the electricity) and stuff like that. They try to be careful of who they rent to. Its not like this is Detroit or Chicago. Even the bad areas you can get decent tenants with jobs. If they are immigrants and move in a few extra people you look the other way because they always pay cash on time. Stuff like that.
    No guns needed

  32. Tipster – you are a loser. Zero credibility. Might as well change your handle… In fact – I think it’s me that needs to change blogs…
    [Editor’s Note: It’s with your second point that we’ll agree (and help you out).]

  33. ^^^can’t sell his D10 property.
    Conifer, I’ve got a year and 9 months to get 200 ft closer. I think you should concede. 🙂
    If I do win, the $100 goes to a women’s shelter or runaway shelter of my choosing, not me. And if you win, half or more of the doughnuts go to a women’s shelter or runaway shelter of your choosing. Deal?

  34. REpornaddict where can one get a 4.875% increased conforming right now? I use Wells and they have not ramped the program up yet so I am thinking of moving on. Is that with points I assume?

  35. in today’s news:
    “The vacany rate for the top 79 US markets jumped to an average 7.2%, a full percentage point increase over the past 2 quarters and the highest level since the first quarter of 2004. Rents fell sharpest in markets that saw heavy job losses in the financial services sector, posting declines of more than 2% in New York, Long Island, NY, San Franciso, and San Jose”.
    More reason to question the sustainability of those rediculous rent numbers.
    oh by the way i got mugged walking down this street on mapjack yesterday.

  36. Rents fell sharpest in markets that saw heavy job losses in the financial services sector, posting declines of more than 2% in New York, Long Island, NY, San Franciso, and San Jose
    this has been anticipated for some time. it was obvious as soon as one realized we were going into recesssion. Rents are linked directly to income. You can’t refinance to pay your rent. as income goes down, so must rents.
    also, there is increased rental supply around as condos became rental units.
    decreased income of populace plus increased units for rent equals lower rents.
    there was a brief time when certain posters claimed rents would hold (or rise) but it’s been a while since I’ve heard that sort of claim.
    the rent drops have been hidden to some extent by free months of rent and other perks… just like the downturn in housing has been masked by free HOA’s and other perks.
    [Editor’s Note: Not just certain posters but certain industry analysts (with whom we disagreed): Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Rental Outlook (And Quick Rebuttal).]

  37. Editor- don’t worry, I’m sure their next report will correct this, and mention that it’s a good time to buy apartment bldgs because the GRM’s are lower! They should have realized that we were at an inflection point when they put the last report out. But I’m glad SS made note of that. I guess I read all industry reports with a grain of salt and auto-account for biases, but not everyone can ferret that out. So good call!
    Resp- you gotta watch out for those digital thugs. It’s no fun getting jacked on mapjack!

  38. Conifer, I’ve got a year and 9 months to get 200 ft closer. I think you should concede. 🙂
    If I do win, the $100 goes to a women’s shelter or runaway shelter of my choosing, not me. And if you win, half or more of the doughnuts go to a women’s shelter or runaway shelter of your choosing. Deal?
    Posted by: tipster at April 7, 2009 9:22 PM
    Sorry I did not see this sooner.
    Cannot change the bet, because I think a lot of socketsite people will come to our house for free donuts on 12/31/10, and I do not want to disappoint them. However, if there are any left over, I will happily donate them to a shelter or any other facility run by Episcopal Charities.

  39. Conifer, I’m sorry, can you point out where I agreed to all of your conditions? The bet I proposed was PH SFR <$1.3M. You then added a bunch of conditions to what I proposed and then claimed we had a bet. That doesn’t qualify as a bet.
    BTW, I already won the bet I proposed: PH SFR <$1.3M. But I had no takers. Your bet is a new proposal which hasn’t been accepted.
    And 100 people, all needing doughnuts isn’t going to happen. Either it’s done for charity (100% on my side, 50% on yours) or I will only accept the bet for my original proposal, which has occurred, so it wouldn’t be smart to take such a bet.

  40. You did explicitly agree to all my terms. I will search for your post. I am sure other socketsiters will also remember this.
    Please do not try to back out of your bet now.
    200 feet is a very long way at the border of PacHts.

  41. HERE ARE COPIES OF THE ORIGINALS POSTS, proof that Tipster accepted my terms.
    @Conifer: “I doubt that we will be seeing a SFH for sale at $1.3 in western PacHts ever again.”
    I’ll bet you dollars to doughnuts that we’ll see it before 2010 is done.
    Okay, tipster, it is a bet, $100 against 100 donuts. If I win, we will share the 100 donuts with other members of the list. To win the $100, you have to find a single family house (no fires or acts of God) that closed for $1.3m or less (delivered vacant free of tenants) in western Pac Hts, defined as north of Clay, south of Green, west of Fillmore, east of Presidio. If you do not find one, you have to deliver 100 donuts to my house, where all other members of the list will celebrate on New Year’s Eve day, Dec 31, 2010, at 11 am.
    Posted by: Conifer at February 18, 2009 2:56 PM
    Conifer, It’s a bet.
    Michael, don’t forget about the move up buyers taking their equity from people who bought the buyer’s former home with nothing down, and using that equity as the down payment on the move up home. Those nothing down buyers are gone and so the move up buyers don’t have nearly the equity, if they can sell their homes at all.
    And that problem is getting worse as housing prices continue to sink.
    Posted by: tipster at February 18, 2009 4:15 PM

  42. Conifer,
    It seems like you have offer, acceptance and consideration (wager). I’d say you have an authenticated bet on your hands. Not a fan of donuts but would love to see Tipster in his slinky maid’s outfit serving the guests.

  43. Tipster, will you please confirm that you accepted the bet, as reiterated above, and will keep your part of the wager without later modification?

  44. If it’s fresh Krispy Kreme donuts, I’ll show up. Maybe if KKD drops back to a buck a share, you could bring 100 shares instead of donuts. Amazing that a couple weeks ago you could buy a share of Krispy Kreme and Citibank for about two bucks. Two great American companies.

  45. I suggest dynamo doughnuts on lower 24th st in the mish. Might as well make it a gourmet experience- maple bacon doughnuts anyone?

  46. My mistake. I didn’t recall accepting, but there it is. A deal is a deal.
    The maid’s outfit wasn’t part of the deal. It wouldn’t match my earrings anyway.
    The $100 will go to charity if I win. You can have the doughnuts if you win. Already picked the charity:

  47. Thank you Tipster for reaffirming the bet. If I win, the donuts will be available to the socketsiters during the party, and any left over will be donated to a charity. By the end of 2010, I expect there will be enough people to eat all of them.
    We will now watch the market for prime PacHts houses with thoughts of delicious donuts dancing in our heads.
    My wife has agreed with my offer to provide the coffee.

  48. Conifer,
    You cannot donate leftover fresh food to charity or even give it away to the homeless. I’ve tried. Even homeless people are weary about accepting something that may have been tampered with.
    At the very least, in the unlikely event that you win, let’s try to get a count before hand and donate an equivalent amount of money to a housing-related charity for the remainder. If the count is more than 30, I’ll be very surprised. Either way, I pay the same amount, but wasting money is so 2008.
    And if you refuse, well, there’s always THIS:
    1 can biscuits
    Cut holes in biscuits with hole cutter. Drop in hot deep grease until golden.
    1 c. powdered sugar
    2 tbsp. milk
    1/4 tsp. vanilla

  49. I am not worried, Tipster. There will be plenty of people at this celebration of the survival of PacHts residential real estate prices. I bet there is not a single donut left over. Most people will eat more than one donut, since they will have skipped breakfast.
    Remember, everybody on this list, posting or watching, to put on your calendar: December 31, 2010, at 11 a.m., for donuts and coffee.

  50. Don’t get too cocky Conifer! Does 2605 Sacramento fit the bill? Listed for $1,175,000. But I can’t see anything about it. Anyway, Pac Heights is seeing about 1 SFR sale a month and there are about 30 listings. Good test to see how able sellers are to hold on with very few buyers out there.
    (btw, I made tipster’s doughnut recipe in an 8th grade home-ec class — midwestern cooking at its finest. I got chewed out by the teacher for dumping the oil after we used it rather than saving it. True story).

  51. I think if Conifer wins we can turn the donut party into a fundraiser. I am sure I wouldn’t be the only one willing to attend, eat donuts, and donate some money to charity. Also to be fair if Tipster wins I think we should still have a get together to recognize the settling of this bet and again make it a fundraiser.

  52. As this is primo SF that’s being debated, certain provisions will need to be made.
    First, the donuts will have to be “artisan”: organic and made from whole wheat flower, cooked in oil free of transfats, and powdered with unprocessed raw sugar, farmed sustainably. I would also expect milk from happy cows and vanilla from some company that donates 7% of profits to left-handed pygmies in the Amazon who suffer from amblyopia.
    For the diabetics, you’ll need a sugar-free alternative. Soy glaze for the vegans. Gluten-free would be good, too, in case anyone has celiac disease.
    Lastly, I would expect a wine pairing. I recommend a light, white muscat that has been chilled for an hour before opening, to at least 18 degrees Celsius, and then served in appropriate glasses. Stemless may be the way to go if this is to be held outdoors.
    This, of course, is if tipster loses the bet. Which I don’t think he will. But just saying.

  53. Conifer, that 2605 Sacramento propery might just trip you up. It offers no parking, a teensy 25 X 50 foot lot, and only if the lower “den” + “bath” amount to 276 feet (unlikely) does it become as low as 1000 a foot. But you’d lose. It was purchased for 1.05M in 2006. The kitchen was “updated,” so think a new appliance or two. It’d be pretty ironic if you lost on what is basically an apples to apples comparison which illustrates a higher 2009 sale price than 2006.

  54. Anonn, Conifer excluded Sacramento. North of Clay. See the post above at 3:18 yesterday.
    I’ve got 20 months. I should have no trouble getting an under 1.3M sale.

  55. The bet was pretty clear as to the delineation of “western Pac Hts, defined as north of Clay, south of Green, west of Fillmore, east of Presidio.” (See Posted by: Conifer at April 8, 2009 3:18 PM above).
    2605 Sacramento looks to be outside of the boundaries by a block. So, Conifer looks safe. For now 😉

  56. Oh, OK. MY BAD. I should have double checked the rules/ another poster’s street orientation who shall remain nameless/ before I wrote anything about 2605 Sacramento. (It is an interesting little possible apple, tho.)

  57. white muscat that has been chilled for an hour before opening, to at least 18 degrees Celsius, and then served in appropriate glasses. Stemless may be the way to go if this is to be held outdoors.
    I’ll stop you right there, legacy dude.
    18 Celcius is not even close to be considered as chilled. That’s 64 degrees, and if this thing is held outdoors late December then you’d probably better off leaving the bottle outside anyway…
    I chill my Muscat along with my juices, fwiw. Frontignan would be my first choice, Beaumes-de-Venise comes second.

  58. Whoops, didn’t realize this was limited to Real(tm) Pac Heights. Makes it tougher for tipster, but time is on his side. And Legacy Dude has the right idea, only no way the Atkins-fanatics of Pac Heights are going to eat any donut.

  59. He can make some delicious “low-carb” donuts for the orthorexic attendees.
    * 1/2 cup whey protein powder
    * 1/4 tsp nutmeg
    * 2 tsp baking powder
    * 1/8 tsp salt
    * 2 TB heavy cream
    * 1 egg
    * 2 TB water
    * 2 TB Splenda
    * Oil (for frying)
    For Topping:
    * 3 packets Splenda
    * Pinch cinnamon
    1. Mix dry ingredients together. Whisk egg with other wet ingredients, add to dry ingredients, and mix to combine well.
    2. Heat 1 1/2 inches of oil in skillet to 360 F (if batter puffs up when it’s dropped in, it’s ready)
    3. Drop tablespoon-sized amounts of batter into the oil. Turn/remove when browned on both sides. Rest on paper towels and sprinkle w/ Splenda & cinnamon
    4. Toss donuts in the trash because they taste like crap and go buy some real donuts like a normal human being.

  60. There are LOTS of fun recipes for really bad doughnuts.
    I found one recipe with the following comments:
    “I can’t believe I actually made this befor looking at the reviews. This was the worse recipe I’ve ever made,this was to greasy and tasted like a flat oily cake. Don’t bother with this one!!”
    Or how about some DELICIOUS ex-lax-laced chocolate doughnuts for all the Realtors out there. mmmmmmmmmm….. Eat up everyone!
    This could be the opportunity of a LIFETIME for someone like me!

  61. WTF. Do we all really want to meet each other? (coddling our psychoses anonymously online is so much fun:) But i suppose we could have name tags with just our silly little screen names.
    PAM-LiM, in case you’re wondering, is poor-ass-millionaire-living-in-the-mish.

  62. Or how about some DELICIOUS ex-lax-laced chocolate doughnuts for all the Realtors out there. mmmmmmmmmm….. Eat up everyone!
    Wow, paranoid, delusional and now genuinely creepy.
    Count me out, 45 Y.O. I got better things to do than get food poisoning while talking to weirdos.

  63. Anonn- I didn’t notice that was targeted at realtors.
    C’mon now tipster, that was hitting below the belt (sort to speak) and not too cool. If you loose I think you should hold a realtor donation party…ramen4realtors.

  64. Have no fear. The source of the doughnuts, and their unadulterated quality will be verafiable. I’m not really a sore loser.
    Especially since I’m not going to lose.

  65. Oh, a nice 2/1, not on crack-ho lane, no prkg, $2200-2500 depending on specific location, size and amenities. Some condo-turned-rentals new construction are still trying to get north of $3000 (I think it’s slow going) and 2/1 sh!t-boxes can be had for as little ad $1800 per mo.

  66. this is a nice little wager
    too bad LMRIM can’t establish a secondary market for this wager – you know, so those of us who are uninvolved but interested observers could make massive derivative bets and then write bet default swaps to hedge our risks (without corresponding collateral of course). if any counterparty was unable to meet their obligations, I’m sure our benevolent editor would be happy to provide the necessary backdoor capital to make everyone whole. wouldn’t that be swell. oh I forgot the part where the editor would take forced financial contributions to make himself whole. for authenticity purposes of course.
    now, if I had to lay odds, I’m going to have to say 5:6 on conifer, largely because the (smartly) negotiated geographical restrictions will decrease the number of sales and thus will protect him against that pesky rational marginal buyer and seller.
    not to open a can of worms, but due to geographical restrictions include the street itself, the side of the street towards the interior of the rectangle, or do they exclude the street (my reading is the last of these options, which is bad for tipster of course – if not I might raise my odds to 9:10!).
    **I’m not making any bets here, I only do that on various crooked equity markets.**

  67. ugh, no preview function 🙂
    should say: ‘but do the geographical restrictions include the street itself…)
    sorry for the typo

  68. Two NODs in real Pacific Heights for $1.2million, but they look like they are probably condos or coops. One SFH NOD on Vallejo for $2.9 million. Hmmm… donuts…

  69. You lose the dollars to doughnuts bet conifer.
    The clay street property sold for 1.275.
    I’ll set up a contact at the Larkin Street Youth Services Center you can contact to arrange a $100 donation. The contact will let me know when he receives the money but won’t disclose your identity. The tax donation is yours. The $50 net would be about what 100 doughnuts would have cost so that makes it an even bet.
    Best possible outcome. Housing related charity wins. They give housing to runaway teens.

  70. Wasn’t the bet limited to north of Clay? This property is on the south side of Clay. Or was it inclusive of both sides of Clay and everything north of that?

  71. Read above: both sides of the named streets were included. First, conifer kept adding more and more conditions. He explained the clay designation as being because homes south of clay were really western addition homes, which I understood and agreed to but Clay is real PH on anyone’s map.

  72. What is the obsession with dropping words CAP RATE, especially on property LT 5 units?
    They can be as helpful as looking at the calorie count on a food label without knowing portion size. Go read your donut labels…
    The next person who uses CAP RATE without explaining how varied accounting practices can change it will display their ignorance for all to see. Running down Market Street nekkid!
    Akin to people who use price per square foot on different types of property and bedroom count, thinking it is all the same…

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