Our original post on 695 Grand View Avenue #101 sparked a good discussion with respect to real estate valuation and the frequently misrepresented misunderstood tax benefits of a mortgage.
At the time this condo was listed at a suggested short sale price of $489,000 (purchased for $552,000 in January of 2007). This morning that suggestion was reduced to $399,000.
∙ Listing: 695 Grand View Avenue #101 (1/1) – $399,000 [MLS]
∙ Noe Valley Apples to Apples With A View: 695 Grand View Ave #101 [SocketSite]
∙ Yesterday’s Comment Of The Day: An All Too Common Misconception [SocketSite]
I threw out a quick “intrinsic value” estimate of $250K +/- 10% in the old thread on this property.
I’m guessing that someone will catch this knife around here (because of the large price drop, remodeling, view, and the magic of “noe” which only now seems to be fading). Still, not bad I guess. Assuming it sells here, it’s about halfway dollar-wise from its ostensible peak value ($550K) to fair value (and down 28% from last sale, apples to apples). About what you’d expect at this early stage in the bubble’s unwind.
LMRiM,
I am pretty close to your 200s guesstimate. I would touch it as a rental only in the 100s just to be sure I’d be cash-flow positive. This unit should be a rental in the first place, by the way, not a specuvestor stepping stone.
1/1s must have a really hard time selling nowadays as the buy-and-suck-it-up-if-the-market-tanks theory doesn’t fly for 1/1s. Nobody wants to start a family with neg-equity in a tiny condo.
By the way, I have former homies from NV that rent a unit about twice bigger for close to 2K 2 blocks away on GV. Much nicer view.
Thinking again about these lower asking: we NEED places to sell at these lower prices or closeby so that we have a sense of where the market stands today. When a place is for sale at a wish price for months on and the listing drops off the charts, this might be a sign the market is soft, but not a PROOF, because there’s no tangible datapoint resulting from it. Sure it might be a falling knife, but we need someone to catch it to see how fast the knife is falling.
Any takers? It’s so cheeeap.
I would touch it as a rental only in the 100s just to be sure I’d be cash-flow positive.
Do us a favor and check in when that occurs. Until then …
Do us a favor and check in when that occurs. Until then …
Typical “go away” rant. A Realtor complaining at the scavengers hovering around the moribund SF RE market. Bears didn’t kill the market, too much speculation did. No blaming the messengers will change the message.
This is still high but it will probably sell near this price, maybe for 25k less or so. It’s still pricey for what it is at $682 a square foot (it’s only 585 square feet from the assessor). But the view and the Noe “branding” should help move it (if this was 1 block west on the other side of Portola/Market this would be Twin Peaks).
One question is… what value do you attach to a panoramic city view in this part of town (or in general)?
By my figures, this is still $682/sqft even at the $399k price. You can still do better in this area. How much is a view like this one worth? $100/sqft? $200?
How much is a view like this one worth?
At least 28% less than it did last year 🙂
From a fair value point of view, probably not too much. It’s a 1/1, and it almost abuts Portola. Let’s get real here. There are lots of places with nice views all over SF. $250K fair value estimate already incorporates plenty of premium for the “specialness” of SF (as do the rents, of course).
Yes it is close to Upper Market, but also not too far from Diamond Heights. I would still call it Noeish though. You can walk to 24th street shopping 4-5 blocks away if your knees can take the slope on that last block on the way down. I know a few old timers in the area who will drive to the DH shopping center for cheaper and more car-friendly grocery shopping.
I predict it *doesn’t* sell at this price. What we’ve seen is that these short sale “prices” can be wishful thinking, as the owner is just trying to get some bids in, any bids, to take to the lender. Ideally a super low price will start a mini bidding war, and they can make the argument to the lender that the top bid is the fair market value. It’s an auction in all but name.
But if the bids are too low for the lender they will reject (unfortunately not before wasting several months of the potential buyers time). Given how steep the price drop is here, and how few bids are going in, I think the most likely outcome here is going to be foreclosure.
Missionite hit the nail on the head with this one I think. If there is little to no interest at 399k then foreclosure looks inevitable I’m sure.
150 DOM wrote:
> I would touch it as a rental only in the
> 100s just to be sure I’d be cash-flow positive.
I don’t know why anyone would want to own a rental condo in San Francisco with rent control and all the other tenant protections when your life would be a lot easier owing a rental in Marin, San Mateo County or the East Bay…
Note that condos are exempt from rent control so you can always raise the rent to market conditions (although they are still subject to some eviction protection measures).
don’t know why anyone would want to own a rental condo in San Francisco with rent control and all the other tenant protections when your life would be a lot easier owing a rental in Marin, San Mateo County or the East Bay…
Trip is correct, as a condo this should be exempt from Rent Control (except if it was Ellised but the listing does not say that therefore we will assume it was not).
If it’s goes down to $250K, I’ll buy for my mother. The mortgage payment is about what I spend in babysitting a month…
This is a damn good price. If this price point holds, we are back to 2002.
it sold for $389k in 2005… ridiculous that someone paid nearly $200k more 2 years later when the froth was off in most of the rest of the city.
IMO this “would” sell at it’s 2005 value if it weren’t a short sale… but i agree with missionite… it has 2 loans, and i highly doubt the overrun loss mit dept’s of each can agree with each other… so it will become an REO.
and at the risk of inviting ridicule… this isn’t “real Noe”… not when you can’t take a leisurely stroll to 24th vs. a trek.
the market is contracting inward to only the most desirable locations… hence the mantra location, location, location, and buyers are skipping right past areas where you don’t have ultra-convenience to shopping and commuting… so i preduct a $350k REO sale in 6+ months from now
LOL. Here we go with intimations that the seller “overpaid”. (Just kidding, sfrob, I know you didn’t say that specifically.)
I’ll bet anything that the place was completely redone after the 2005 sale. New kitchen, remodeled baths, new birch floors in main living area, new tile in kitchen and bath, etc.
I’m not saying the remodel was “worth” the extra $200K. But time and time again I have been amazed at how easy it was to lure a sucker with that tunkey condo smell.
Hopefully, it was a no money down situation, and the owner has been enjoying some free rent for a while. According to the assessor’s office, no taxes were paid after 12/07, so that would have lowered the cst as well of living there. probably not a bad trade. A ding to the credit report, but a free place to live for maybe a year or so.
All the units in the building are 585 sq feet (according to prop shark), and 102 sold July 07 for $457K and 301 for $575K (!!) back in December 05.
Permit for a kitchen and bath remodel issued 1/11/2006, one year prior to the 12/28/2006 resale; estimated cost on permit was $12.5k.
Why waste time or even bother with short sales? The lenders are difficult to deal with, and the negotions are a long, unnecessarily dranw-out process. Unless it’s a to-die-for property that you just have to have, wait until it goes REO. It’s then almost always cheaper than the short-sale price, and the bank is more obedient.
Can the poster who looked up the sq. feet for this place please explain how to do that? I noticed that the sq. feet was not mentioned on the MLS.
Is there a website for the assessor’s office?
Thanks.
Property Shark
http://gispubweb.sfgov.org/website/sfparcel/index.htm
BTW, I did find the above website and see the interesting tax records, but I can’t find any sq. footage numbers associated with the properties.
Thanks for the Property Shark pointer.
Does it come with the telescope required to get the views in the MLS listing?
Don’t let’s everybody lick their chops prematurely. This sold for $435 k. What’s that, about $700 + psf?
[Editor’s Note: A Noe Valley Border Apple Closes Escrow: 695 Grand View Ave #101.]