From a reader’s comment on our topic of the Palms (555 4th Street) in July:
So now there are a fair number of 2/2’s in Soma for the 600’s. Wake me up when we hit the 500’s.
Last week 555 4th Street #401 closed escrow with a reported contract price of $599,900 (that’s “high $500’s” in sales speak). A 938 square foot two-bedroom/bath condo with parking at the Palms, unit #401 was purchased in October of 2006 for $779,000, returned to the market a year later seeking $850,000, and was asking $674,900 when it closed [see UPDATE below].
That’s an apples to apples drop in value of 23% over the past two and one-quarter years, or average annual depreciation of 11%. Are we awake?
UPDATE: Additional color from a plugged-in reader:
FYI, this unit was indeed an REO. Did anyone see it? I did. The guy that was foreclosed on freaked out, ripped out all the kitchen appliances and sold them on craigslist. Nice Bosch appliances, pick ’em up cheap! At $599,900 the unit was actually a pretty good deal, however if the buyer had waited it out a bit I’m sure it would have come down some more. The price had actually been reduced to $599,900, so it sold at asking.
The line from the listing: “Need minor cosmetic works.” (Misplaced “s” theirs not ours.)
∙ The Palms (555 4th St.): Secondary Market Slowdown And Short Sale [SocketSite]
∙ The Palms Finds More Inventory And A Resale Hits The Market [SocketSite]
“The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.”
Wake me up when this happens in “real SF” instead of these outlying condo filled burbs.
fluj was right, there are a lot of “pouncing buyers”.
He just didn’t say how much they would pay!
Wow. If this is a “real” sale (i.e., not a foreclosure, short sale, etc.), the poor schlub who got suckered into buying this in 2006 just spent around $30K/mo to live in a sub-1000 square foot apartment. At least he was able to say, “I own” for while 🙂
“outlying burbs”? I am no fan of this building but Palms is 0.9 miles away from Union Square. How more central do you need to get? Four Seasons on Market?
You couldn’t pay me 30k a month to live in this building… 599,900 is still about 299,901 too much.
Bbbbut, what about the “pride of ownership”?
Anyone hear the latesr NAR radio ad to coax people into buying now? Both comical and sad at the same time.
Sorry, guys, math error on my part (should have left the calculation to my 5-year old).
They only spent around $12K per month to live there. That seems like good value 🙂
I don’t know the circumstances of this sale, but assuming it was just a straight sale, then kudos to the seller for cutting his losses. Yes, he took a bath on the place, but the recent buyer is going to do worse. $640/sf is ridiculous for this place, and I wouldn’t be surprised if comps go for far less (30%+) a year from now. This area is soon to be foreclosure central.
The NEW buyer can aspire to lose $30K per month!
this building has relatively many more listings than its peers in the area, compared to some of the other highrises in soma. what could be the reason for it? and some of the listings have been there forever, and a 1/1 unit is asking some 639K. even the most naive buyer has gotta know that is way too expensive?!
One month ago, my friends — a married couple — left their rental ~3 blocks away, for a SFU 1600 sqft Bernal house for 589k. It does need another 50k in work; but why exactly live in a condo over an SFU which is within a 10 minute drive of Mission Bay?
Does anyone have a study of what most employees in Mission Bay biotech will be earning, assuming 20% down?
Regarding apples-to-apples in Bernal, after getting to know their next door neighbors living in near replicas (sq ft + renovation costs):
Left: sold for 750k 9 months ago.
Right: sold for 280k 9 years ago.
…
“Does anyone have a study of what most employees in Mission Bay biotech will be earning?”
Average of 90-100K/yr. Half of them will be laid off in the enxt 6 months. A majority of the biotechs in mission bay are cash strapped and have less than 1yr of cash to burn through. of course, pfizer may SFexpand there and gobble these up for cheap.
I work in the industry and the bay area is about to be a stronghold for big pharma. i think at least a 3rd of the biotechs in the bay area will either be swallowed up or dissolved within the next year. Either way, a lot of the jobs will be lost. I know biotech recruiter who are now turning down clients. Unheard of in the past
Where exactly is “real SF”? SF is really not that big. I am confused.
Maybe we need a poll?
condoshopper, what could be the reason for it? Because that area is boring as hell. There’s nothing there. Lots of homeless people. The streets are basically empty at night. It’s a work district and nothing more. Also why you’d also not want to live in the Finance District.
I also think the buyer overpaid. This sucker is destined for $400k.
anon, Real SF is two different places, to the Bulls it is anywhere prices haven’t fallen yet, to the Bears it is anywhere prices have fallen. Right now it appears the Bears Real SF is bigger then the Bulls Real SF. Kind of like a football game and the Bears are driving downfield hoping to score their touchdown with 50-80% off peack prices in all of SF while the Bulls fight desperately to hold them to a field goal of 20% off peak in D7. Meanwhile there is a lot of smack talk and insults flying around the field.
The ongoing discussion on price deflation seems to me to need a little more structure. Some parts of the SF housing market are clearly cratering, others merely subsiding. I’ve long expected that the worst crater would be in the small-to-medium no-kids-yuppie-oriented SOMA loft/condo market, for which an enormous flood of inventory was released over the last couple of years — and that seems to be the case.
On the other hand, family-sized houses in the center and north of the City seem to be holding their value better. For example, in NOPA, where I live, prices for that sort of house are, from what I can tell, only off about 10 percent from their peak eighteen months ago.
The conversations about Real SF on this site always remind me of The Jerk – pick any prize . . . pick any prize on this shelf . . . pick any price on this shelf between the kewpie doll and the pencil sharpener.
Oh come on, people, the ‘outlying burbs’ quip was obv. joking.
I do think it would be neat to have a dynamic google map of the territories of the competing Real SF’s. It could be updated like the Case-Schiller.
lol – Rillion, you win best post of the day (and it’s not even 10am yet). Classic.
Spencer,
As a current Pfizer employee, you are correct. We are setting up our Biotech HQ in Mission Bay, and we are looking to acquire small, innovative biotech companies with promising early-stage compounds. We are currently re-organizing our company to be more stream-lined (read: less middle-mgmt) and more entrepreneurial (read: separate business units run like separate companies), and one of our largest expected growth engines over the next 20 years (yes, we look long-term, and not qtr to qtr) will be biotech. Since we do not have many biotech products in the pipeline, we will look to buy these “cash-strapped” biotech firms, because eventhough our stock is down, we are not “cash-strapped.”
One thing to keep in mind: I know everyone loves Obama in SF, and I am thankful for a change in US Leadership, but I hope Obama will protect patent rights in the US and overseas and provide more incentives for R&D. R&D costs are skyrocketing, and it is taking longer for our products to make it to Walgreens on a limited patent life. If Obama does not incentivisize R&D by protecting patent life and possibly extending patents because the FDA is requiring more safety and efficacy trials in larger patient populations, then you will see a gradual, but significant shift from SF, San Diego, and Boston(other biotech hubs) to developing nations, such as China. I really hope Obama reduces taxes on companies and citizens, and makes America more competitive in this global economy.
“For example, in NOPA, where I live, prices for that sort of house are, from what I can tell, only off about 10 percent from their peak eighteen months ago.”
NOPA is a restaurant. It’s hard for me to believe that SFRs in WESTERN ADDITION are only of 10% from peak. Do you have any data to back up that claim.?
In a previous life, I was offerred a job with Pfizer in Groton (at the time I was working for Alejandro Zaffaroni). I wish more of the bailout would go to companies like Pfizer and Merck. These are two great companies, that attract the smartest people in the world and have the cash to bankroll the 1 of 50 new drug entities that make it to commercializaiton.
This is exactly where the bailout money should go.
OFf topic, but re:
“FDA is requiring more safety and efficacy trials in larger patient populations, then you will see a gradual, but significant shift from SF, San Diego, and Boston(other biotech hubs) to developing nations, such as China. I really hope Obama reduces taxes on companies and citizens, and makes America more competitive in this global economy. ”
Lilly has already shifted all of their early stage clinical trial work to India and am positive you guys are next
Not sure if I woke up yet. What worries me is now there are quite a few 2 br’s in SOMA in the 500’s. 400’s by summer seem a foregone conclusion.
But where is the bottom?
If I had to guess…it depends on two things, rent parity and deflation.
a) Rent parity: 2br rents in SOMA are now around 2800 – this suggests a rent parity at 5% of about $520k, at 4%* rent parity of about 620k.
b) Deflation: it appears to just be started. The magnitude of the GD1.0 was around 30% over 3 years on prices. Big assumption: rents will deflate on the same order of magnitude of general prices during the GD1.0. This will be due to continued job losses and wealth and leverage destruction.
This suggests a bottom of around $364k – $434k – depending on where interest rates are in a year or so.
* If the Fed’s attempts of targeting interest rates succeed we should easily see 4% interest rates by the middle of next year. They’ve done similar programs with war bonds during previous downturns. However, I don’t think they are trying as hard as they want us to think – why? Because the garbage assets on their balance sheets can’t afford to pay more than 0%. These assets must be disposed of before the Fed gets serious about growth again. (I wonder who the garbage collector will be? 🙂 )
Have you ever seen a Palm Tree on fire? It’s not pretty. Neither is this. Time to jump ship at the Palms I guess. Who would have thought when people were scooping up units before it was even open in 05/06 at 800, 900, 1k/psf…
FYI, this unit was indeed an REO. Did anyone see it? I did. The guy that was foreclosed on freaked out, ripped out all the kitchen appliances and sold them on craigslist. Nice Bosch appliances, pick ’em up cheap! At $599,900 the unit was actually a pretty good deal, however if the buyer had waited it out a bit I’m sure it would have come down some more. The price had actually been reduced to $599,900, so it sold at asking.
“For example, in NOPA, where I live, prices for that sort of house are, from what I can tell, only off about 10 percent from their peak eighteen months ago.”
Sure it did. You must have recently moved over there in the last eighteen months. I used to have an an apartment there and I cant recall anyone calling it “NOPA”. Maybe all the wannabee hipster/yuppie/coolguys call it that now?
As for the Palms, even though its Central SOMA the location is horrific. As it’s been discussed here in the past. I’m not surprised at the collapse of this building.
@ MarinaRenter-
I fear you will be disappointed. I can tell you from the front lines what happens to patents in a socialized medicine system as I live in one (Italy). The patented products cost about 7 Euro and the off patent ones (like say 20 asprin) 15 Euro! Sure it’s great when I get a new product for peanuts, but I know who’s getting the shaft on my behalf.
The world has no idea what it takes to develop medicines in terms of cost, etc as you describe. Instead they seek to plunder the fruits of your labor telling you you have a moral obligation etc to share.
I can’t believe that people constantly “hope” when it comes to Obama…he was even elected on it. “Hope” is for people who play the lottery and so forth, and I fear you will be as disillusioned. Start taking Mandarin lessons.
“real” sf according to paco:
d4 5 6 7 and 8; only pristine, well located properties in those districts; only if they’re still appreciating.
Or as fluj summed up more elegantly:
It’s all very micro, bro.
By the way, where are fluj and paco?
MarinaRenter – I already thought a large number of biotechs/pharma were outsourcing their R&D to China?
Banking on a government granted short-term monopoly (a.k.a. patents) only to argue that government shouldn’t be involved with public health; priceless…
Yes the largest purchaser of drugs in any country should pay retail, economy of scales be damned.
/snark
“NOPA is a restaurant. It’s hard for me to believe that SFRs in WESTERN ADDITION are only of 10% from peak. Do you have any data to back up that claim.?”
Look at the recent sales in that area and that sounds about right – not saying it still holds – but it sounds right. This Sunday, I walked through a 4 BR 4200 SF victorian overlooking Alamo Square Park in need of significant work (200-300K) and they’re asking $2.4M for it. Nice view of the park and all, but I’d be surprised to see it got for $2M or more…
Meanwhile I have a friend considering selling and we couldn’t figure out where that neighborhood is – and it was a function of both the lack of recent sales and what few recent sales there were being maybe 10% off from peak if that – which is where that estimate came from. The current listings did not match up for a comp since none had parking.
Nearby, there was a 1400 SF condo on Mc Allister with 1 parking spot for $820K, which I gather could pull in ~4K in rent. Figure it goes for $750K or so and 20% would make it slightly cash-positive if only one didn’t fear the disappearance of one’s principle, which keeps me from touching it, and of course, rent control, which is a dealbreaker for me, period.
So some of the stuff about stubborn sellers sounds just about right. Anyway, no cake in the oven here, I’ve long since given up buying in SF, I’m just reporting what I saw.
OT but have to say, outsourcing will continue its march as long as there is money to be saved. Since September, Indian Rupee is 20% cheaper… more pressure to outsource.
The Palms is great. This particular unit not the pick of the litter, but obviously the financial situation of the SELLER is the issue (as it is with 99% of all the socketsite re-sale postings). aptly named phatty and scurvy – from what I can decipher – don’t own anywhere and continuously say crap about a building that not only do I think have never been to (except perhaps a courtyard unit (per a phatty comment months back) and/or don’t really seem to be able to place it on a map, per other comments. There are no more homeless near ThePalms than anywhere else in SF. I see one at the starbucks on the corner and perhaps when Giants game nights whre one tries to “sell” parking. Otherwise, homeless are on 5th, 6th or at least 2-3 blocks away when in front of whole foods or caltrain station. Location is perfect for us, walk to work, walk to groceries, great restaurants, Union Square, etc. Our lobby and services are excellent, finess center ideal. And if we want to drive to say, Target, it’s just 4 blocks to 280 to Colma. We aren’t flippers and plan to keep our place forever.
Not sure you can lump the entire SOMA into the declines. Quality buildings like the Brannan are probably still holding value. Any recent movement there?
As for the biotech discussion…Look for Pfizer to buy the Generics manufacturers to cover the shift in patents. That’s one of the reasons TEVA Pharmaceuticals has only lost 5% since October instead of the 30-50% drubbing of the rest of the market.
I’m not sure why the Brannan would be immune; dated interior, small workout room, tons of inventory in the area… There’s nothing luxurious with any of these South Beach condos.
219 Brannan St #16K has a wishing price of $1.55M; sitting for 218 days with one price reduction of $50k. Purchased in 2000 for $900k.
239 Brannan St #6A has a wishing price of $1.2M; sitting for 140 days, price reduction of $130k; Purchased in 2002 for $765k.
Buy High Sell Low: “Nearby, there was a 1400 SF condo on Mc Allister with 1 parking spot for $820K, which I gather could pull in ~4K in rent. Figure it goes for $750K or so and 20% would make it slightly cash-positive if only one didn’t fear the disappearance of one’s principle, which keeps me from touching it, and of course, rent control, which is a dealbreaker for me, period.”
I thought Condo’s were exempt from rent control?!?
I’m not sure what the “official” SOMA area covers, but I have seen places over by Mission and 6th advertised as SOMA. I see a lot of places near me described as SOMA as well, but I think of this area (by Townsend and second) as “South Beach”. Certainly not much point comparing South Beach with Skid Row…
REO sales don’t count. This is more like an lemon than an apple.
We have spent most of the December shopping for a new condo to rent in SoMa (and I specifically was looking to rent from an individual investor vs. large apartment communities like Avalon.)
Brennan is in fact holding its value better than others, at least rent-wise. I could have had a 2-bedroom with parking at either Beacon or Bridgeview at $3K or Portside at about $2.9. A couple of Brennan units were advertised at about $4K and I was able to talk the owners down only to about $3.5K which was too high.
And yes, we did sign a lease and my loft living is in fact heavily subsidized by my landlord whose mortgage is higher than my rent.
NOPA doesn’t exist as a neighborhood? Please… Sure, the name is trendy, but the nabes on one side of alamo square are very different from the other.
District 6f: “North panhandle”
Trying to lump everything that was once, literally, a western addition, into a single neighborhood today is silly. Districts 6b,d,and f are very different in property style and income levels.
“REO sales don’t count.”
LOL. If it wasn’t for REO sales, the market would be pretty much frozen solid. 50+% of sales are REOs… you’d better hope that they count!
The Brannan is in a much nicer location than the Palms. Not even close to describe South Beach to 4th and Bryant or anywhere else in SOMA.
Love The Palms. the brannan is on top of Safeway, across from train station. To each his own, but I like Palms location, etc. better.
I guess I’m filling in for fluj and paco until they return… but I’m a “realist” not an out and out bull… this unit was hideous… with the washer/dryer ripped out there was an aweful bleach smell, and the BR’s were tiny, the view non existent. $599k was a gross overpay… I bet the bank would have acccepted $500k if they stuck to their guns, and this buyer could have bought a far superior unit for about $650k in the same building (and probably $600k in 6 months)
The Palms has more to drop if what I heard was right… that many buyers had 2 free years of HOA’s and resetting 3 year ARM’s with nearly 100% down. And rents are nose diving as tons of sellers are opting to rent instead of sell. SOMA is in for a world of hurt that the SS bears have been predicting… especially the fringe buildings and areas.
As for the Palms location… it’s borderline “real” (please, lets change this to “desirable”) since it’s inside 4th… go west of 4th and get shot… go east of 4th and… well I still wouldn’t live in most of SOMA, but east is better, and on 4th South of Bryant is when it starts to become acceptable.
And I can’t let Big Pharma go… where is all the drug bashing here? Like the women who swallowed the fly… take one drug for something that a healthy diet and exercise would have prevented in the first place… followed by another drug (the spider) to deal with the first drug’s side effects (the fly) and on and on “until she died”. A Ponzi scheme killing your health… go eat a freaken apple. Meanwhile yes, I’ll buy Pfizer stock since 99% of the sheeple are obese and don’t know why
“Love The Palms. the brannan is on top of Safeway, across from train station. To each his own, but I like Palms location, etc. better.”
OK, I think you meant Beacon and not Brannan on top of Safeway. if so, your realtor did you a disfavor and only showed you the Palms before you bought it. The Brannan is one of the top buildings in San Francisco and located in South Beach. There’s currently a 3 bedroom floorplan that was just listed for over $1.6M.
The SOMA may be tanking but earlier this week a new listing at 200 Brannan came up and it’s not on active contingent for $1.55M. It’s right across the street from the Brannan and it’s a loft style condo. Shocking, huh? Well, there’s also a 1 bedroom at 88 Townsend on contingent for $660k.
Remember folks, location matters.
[Removed by Editor]
[Editor’s Note: While the biotech discussion above was too far along to parse it from the rest of the discussion, we will redirect a reader’s no comment comment about Google. And now back to the Palms.]
“I guess I’m filling in for fluj and paco until they return…”
Not really, sfrob. Your comments actually make sense and seem to be based on rational observations rather than categorically dismissing any viewpoint that differs from your own, or beating your chest about being in the right place at the right time.
Anyway, I’ll go against the grain here and defend the Palms: it’s not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. Surely it’s not Millenium, but it’s a very livable building in an average (read: decent) Soma location.
Yes, values here are dropping. But they’re dropping everywhere. Boil it all down, and most Soma condos are just interchangable boxes in the sky. You live on the inside, and the floorplans/finishes at the Palms aren’t any worse than the Beacon, 88 King, 246 2nd, 199 New Montgomery, or any other non-marquee building. Just regular homes for regular folks. And from the looks of it, soon to be at prices that regular folks can afford. This is a good thing.
Regarding location, I’d rather live here than anywhere west of 4th. I even think this location beats ORH, although clearly the views aren’t comparable.
Editors: I realize the biotech discussion is not exactly about the Palms, but it does influence pricing of SOMA condos. The condos are located very near Mission Bay, which is supposed to become the new Biotech hub of SF and possibly the Bay Area.
I have not checked back on the site for awhile, since I was busy at work, but I think that I was asked a few quetions.
Yes, Lilly has already moved operations to India and GSK has moved some operations to China. We are currently building relationships in China, and I would not doubt it that we move some operations to China or India.
I am hopeful for Obama, because you need to have hope in your life and remain positive and optimistic. However, I am a realist and have no faith in government. Think about this: If you spend someone else’s money, do you spend it as wisely as your own? The answer is no, and that is the reason why there is so much waste in government and why it keeps expanding. I think we need another American Revolution. (history note: The American Revolution began, because we were sick of getting taxed to death by the English. Does that sound familiar?). I would be much more comfortable with Laughing Millionaire or Satchel as President. We need someone to run this coutry like a business by trimming the fat, incentivising companies to invest in new products and their people, and incentivising people to work for a living. Seems like most people in government would not last very long in the private sector. The new treasury secretary would have been fired immediately, if he worked for a private company.
SFrob,
haha. I am looking forward to the next 20 years, when you may actually realize the benefit of pharmaceuticals. We do not push our treatments on patients. The drugs are just treatment options, when preventative care fails. Pfizer preaches a healthy lifestyle and we are incentivised to be healthy (subsidized gym membership, etc.). We are some of the biggest believers in preventative care, but when that fails, what do you do? When you are born with a disease or acquire one later in life, what do you do? My close-friend, in her 30s, is dying of breast cancer. She is a triathlete, marathoner, organice food eater, and extremely positive, stress-free person. What did she do to deserve a death sentence? I could go on, but I have a thought for you. I work in Infectious Diseases, and right now, most companies are pulling out of anti-biotic research, because there are no financial incentives (ie anti-biotics tend to make very little money for a co.) However, bugs do not take time away. They are actually getting smarter and deadlier. Ever here of MRSA? Well, now it is not just in the ICUs of hospitals. It is out in the community, and very few agents can treat it. Once the bug becomes resistant to those agents, what happens? People die. Sometimes I think that people only realize the value of innovative treatments, when they save their family or friend’s life, or when there are no more options (like in my friend’s case), and your close friend/family member is put on hospice. Man, I sure wish there were some more treatments for breast cancer right now. Maybe you have lived a very cush life, but there are many healthy people, whom come down with nasty illnesses at no fault of their own.
grrr: I’ve been to the Palms. Wasn’t impressed by anything. I’ve worked or lived in a three block radius of the Palms for 6 years. I know the area pretty darn well. Oh yeah, South of Market Mental Services = 2 blocks away. Shady freeway underpass = 1.5 blocks away. Side streets with homeless “homes” and shit every other footstep = in the back. Desolate streets after 6PM = everywhere. Yeah, feel that.
The biotech discussion is not relevant. Most of the workers there have to make their homes in the East Bay or maybe the Peninsula. The same will probably hold if there is some transition such as nanotech taking over research spaces with stacks, which isn’t terribly unlikely.
Many people living South of Market along 4th either work downtown or somewhere in the metro area not far. There are actually quite a few couples that live in lofts or condos that appear to be for singles. The area is quite livable and has transit options that open a range of local employment opportunities.
To the extent there is grittiness it may be welcome because it makes the area uncomfortable for those who have to put energy into perfecting others they may encounter. Stroller people have invaded the Castro, so quite a few who like to party or be different have fled that gentrification to get away from increasingly refined sensibilities. An area where people are glad you aren’t a raving lunatic beggar can be in some ways more comfortable than an place where your vehicle may appear insufficiently posh and thus in need of an upgrade.
I live near (not at) the Palms. I like the neighborhood, but I’m no fan of that building. I gotta say, though, it’s a perfect location for Bay Area commuters: I walk to work downtown; my wife walks to Caltrain and rides to the Peninsula. She could conceivably end up working either Mission Bay or to Berkeley, either of which would still be easy (non-car) commutes. There’s not many places you could live that would accommodate commutes to Downtown, the Peninsula, and the East Bay. This is worth hundreds of dollars a month to us just in commuting / parking costs, FWIW.
I still wouldn’t pay what they’re asking at the Palms. There are buildings in the area that present better value (and I’m sure it’s only going to get better).
Correction. I said earlier that “REO sales don’t count. This is more like a lemon than an apple.”
After reading a number of these comments, I think this is more like a sour grape than an apple.
“An area where people are glad you aren’t a raving lunatic beggar can be in some ways more comfortable than an place where your vehicle may appear insufficiently posh and thus in need of an upgrade.”
And I vote for *this* as comment of the day! :->