List prices haven’t fallen to reader laura’s $800 per square foot target at The Summit, but the asking price for 4121 Cesar Chavez #6 has dropped from $1,949,000 ($1,029/sqft) to $1,649,000 ($871/sqft) over the past three months.
The list price for 4121 Cesar Chavez #3 has also been reduced (from $1,499,000 to $1,379,000). And while we don’t know if any of the six condos have closed escrow, and if so at what prices, at least three of the Noe Valley units remain listed and available.
∙ Listing: 4121 Cesar Chavez St #6 (3/2.5) – $1,649,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 4121 Cesar Chavez St #3 (2/2.5) – $1,379,000 [MLS]
∙ Coming Soon: The Six Unit Summit In Noe Valley (4121 Cesar Chavez) [SocketSite]
Here’s an agent comment from the original thread (last comment) that says that the other three sold back in July:
“I toured the upper two units (5 and 6) today (3 of the units have sold already). A lot of foot traffic. I think “spectacular” is in order. I’ve seen a lot of condos and SFH’s in Noe over the years, including high-end condos that sold at $1.5 million and more. I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THESE WILL FETCH ASKING [emphasis added]. The wrap-around 270 degree views of unit 5 are truly remarkable. I THINK THEY’LL NOT HAVE TROUBLE FINDING A BUYER AT OR ABOVE LISTING [emphasis added]. Yes, the psf price is higher than the Noe average for SFH’s, but these condos justify $1000 psf pricing.”
Well, all I can say is that I hope those three buyers (assuming that’s true and it wasn’t just realtor bs) used 100% financing! Three months and you’re underwater. Don’t forget to subtract another 6-7% just to get out if you find that your situation has changed and you need to move. Where do I sign up?
what is this (sic) “Ceasarstone” stuff that’s showing up as a countertop surface? The name makes it sound like the second coming of Corian, or something equally downmarket. Bleah!
more of the finished wood treatment of the window bays
gotta see how all this stuff around town holds up after 10 years
“what is this (sic) “Ceasarstone” stuff that’s showing up as a countertop surface? The name makes it sound like the second coming of Corian, or something equally downmarket.”
That’s just about spot on. I’ve got a friend who had it in her kitchen (came with the place). She found out that like Corian, it doesn’t withstand heat very well and loses it’s polish if you use/clean your kitchen counters regularly. It looks better than Corian (until it wears down) but still looked kinda cheap to me. She just spent a tidy sum having it removed and replacing it with a more durable material since she likes to cook a lot.
My favorite realtorism seen in a listing:
“kitchen equiped with Korean countertops”
“kitchen equiped with Korean countertops”
I like it! Sounds kind of exotic!
Only 2 have sold. The lower-right one isn’t on the market (#2 I think). #3 was in contract, but is back on the market now.
To put into perspective how much this neighborhood has changed, in 1991, my administrative assistant owned a home a block away from this project without stretching her finances. Although I always like Noe Valley, I would have never dreamed that it would command prices similar to the most expensive parts of California.
To put how expensive this is compared to the rest of the country….
My parents are selling their home , downsizing, and buying a 2br condo in downtown Chicago , where they are both originally from. It is the new Ritz Carlton Tower, on one of the best blocks of the city, and is about the exact same price as unit #6.
http://www.theresidenceschicago.com/
Noe Valley is now up there in the price category with some of the most expensive neighborhoods in the country (outside of NYC). Wilshire Blvd. condos in Beverly Hills sell at these prices as well.
Will Noe Valley one day have the same dead energy of Pacific Heights because expensive housing drove all the interesting people away?
Is appears that San Francisco may be experiencing the same change in neighborhood values as other expensive cities, such a NY and Paris. There was an article that said that Tribeca, in NYC, is the most expensive neighborhood, higher than the Upper East Side. In some previously modest areas of Paris, such as the Marais (3 and 4 arrondissements), prices are higher than in the traditional best neighborhoods of the 6 and 7 arrondissements. If the property is good enough, some SF neighborhoods (Noe) attract per square foot prices equal or better than Russian Hill or Pacific/Presidio Heights. This is a major change in valuation, and appears to exist in other cities too, including London and Barcelona. There is still some question whether it would withstand a serious recession or depression.
Not one tree or shrub? And what is going on with the sidewalk?
@anonandproudofit
Will it happen? It already has. Noe is one of the dullest neighborhoods in the city. Just perfect for the dull, vanilla people who have come to inhabit it.
I cannot fathom anyone paying this kind of money to live in a neighborhood that objects to things like the Google Shuttle or improved public transit. Yuck.
pica1986,
What did they put in?
Compared to other prices in the stated income world of real estate, where money is cheap and freely available, it IS pretty attractive. I’m surprised it hasn’t sold. If Google stock wasn’t dropping like a rock, it probably would have sold by now.
But when the no doc loans finally disappear in the coming weeks or months, a place like #6, marketed to a two income couple with 350K in income, will only be able to fetch 1.225M.
If you really feel the need to buy it now at 1.65, be my guest, but really, why bother? When stated income disappears, it’s going to be a whole new ball game.
anybody who thinks Noe Valley will ever be the “Tribeca of SF” is smoking crack. The problem with so many SF neighborhoods with “potential” is that they’re so jammed full of “ticky-tacky,” dog-ugly housing that absent a 1906-scale earthquake it’s going to be nearly impossible to get critical mass of the type of pleasant, attractive streetscapes that make a neighborhood desireable and livable. Tragically, somewhere along the way, people have equated ugly housing with “affordable”–typical subliminal association that the financially underendowed should visually manifest their misfortune by living in demonstrably lesser abodes.
In any case, as several commenters above have said, look at the environment of this development. Classic rule of real estate investing–for maximum appreciation, don’t buy the fanciest place in the neighborhood. Let’s get some recorded sale prices on these units before we start claiming them as typical Noe comps.
“What did they put in?”
They wound up putting in Soapstone counter tops and she loves them. It’s not as ‘glitzy’ as some products, but it looks really cool with the design of their kitchen. The real plus is that it’s very easy to maintain and most importantly can withstand high heat, scratches are easily buffed out and staining is not a problem. She’s a former chef (like me) and when she cooks she likes the flexibility of being able to use all the counter space in the kitchen(i.e.hot pans on the counter). It’s not a look for everyone, but for her functionality trumped form.
“But when the no doc loans finally disappear in the coming weeks or months”
already long gone?
“already long gone?”
Soon to be back, now that Fannie and Freddie no longer have to pretend to be profit making enterprises. Now they can go back to what they were designed to be when they were first implemented in 1938. Conduits for government cash to prop up the housing market. They’ll be making loans that are guaranteed to lose money that no sane, profit-seeking, private party would ever make.
My guess is that we’ll see the return of 100% financing, 30-year fixed, full doc mortgages, but with greatly reduced underwriting requirements for income and appraisal.
I think this project suffered from three different problems, all combined to few sales
1) The market is slower now, which IMO is a fact. even my usually optimistic agent is admitting that. At the high end I don’t think it’s lack of money, but rather general feeling that things will be cheaper next year
2) Location isn’t very good, it’s seems closer in aerial distance, but that hill is really steep
3) construction quality – it’s not poor, but there are issues, starting with the tiny bdrm, through the ridiculous metal stairs
4) Over pricing, way too expenside (per foot) for such a large development.
As for (1) it’s not as bad (Yet??) as The Satchel’s of the world like to paint it. 943 church bottom unit sold and the top is going to sell soon. However these don’t suffer from 2,3 or 4.
Diemos,
That could happen, but isn’t going to happen anytime soon. FM announced the end of no docs to try to head off the takeover. Even that wasn’t strict enough to avoid it. The government is doing this so that investors will continue to loan them money without bankrupting the country. The fact that they are turning the operation over to the regulators, who are way more conservative than current management, says they aren’t going to let them run even as freely as they have been.
Both Obama and McCain are opposed to the GSEs in their current form. I see this as Bush’s attempt to ensure the solution gets implemented before the dems take over.
The current management is doing a fine job of running amok. Every day they get to go to las vegas and bet with other people’s money, pinning all losses on them and keeping all winnings. They have every incentive to make risky bets subject only to what the regulators will allow. If anyone wanted that to continue,they wouldn’ be forcing those guys out.
Not to say it can’t change, but for now, it’s unlikely anyone is in the mood to make that change. The elimination of no doc tells me they were trying to placate the government and it wasn’t enough.
In any event, the congress just reduced the jumbo conforming limits. They consciously decided to hang high cost areas out to dry. That’s all of SF.
We are on our own, and the losses on no doc have gotten too high to allow such loans to be resold, so those are on their way out. They have been declining such that really they are limited to the bay area and other high income areas, but even that appears to be going out the way subprime did. Probably will never go away fully, but will be so onerous and expen$ive that it will be a tiny niche. Like it was in 1999. When houses cost much less.
“Noe is one of the dullest neighborhoods in the city”.
Indeed it is. 24th Street has the least interesting collection of shops and restaurants in the city. Noe may be convenient to South Bay commutes, but it is not the part of town I am going to spend my Saturday night in. It is a bedroom community that just happens to be in San Francisco.
Tipster,
Perhaps, but let me offer an alternative interpretation of the GSE’s behavior in the recent past. You propose that management has been trying to placate the regulators by promising to be good and not do the crazy loans anymore.
I suggest that they have instead been threatening to stop doing the crazy loans, knowing full well that that would implode the financial system. Holding the financial system hostage as it were to get what they want. I assume that management couldn’t care less what happens to these companies as long as they get their golden handshake.
I still think that these companies will used as a primary conduit to reflate the banking system.
“I think this project suffered from three different problems, all combined to few sales”
As if this is a wrap? They sold two already at wish-price. Now the others are out at win-price. Another isn’t even on the market.
Ceasarstone is what we redid our counters in. It is really expensive, about the same as soapstone and a bit more than marble.
I would have rather have had marble, but there is a chance that we will keep this as a rental and buy something bigger and marble is kind of fragile.
I don’t think it is as durable as soapstone. It is sold as being heat resistant, but I have not tried putting a hot pan on it or anything, nor would I. Soapstone is better for that kind of abuse: undergraduate chemistry labs use counter tops made of soapstone, it is really that durable, but it only really comes in one color: a kind of greenish off-black. You can get Ceasarstone in any many different colors.
We have had it for about six months, but it looks like new with regular use in a house with a wine drinker (me) and a toddler in the house.
What a difference 2 years make! Back in June, 2006, I was one of only few commenters that bravely said that SF prices will go down for the next 4 years. Now it seems like everyone is on the same page. Better late than never.
Noe Jim, why not granite in that case? Or high-end ceramic? Or a cool cement treatment? I don’t understand why anyone would buy an expensive artificial surface with inferior performance compared to more natural alternatives. I literally do not understand the decision process that leads ANYONE to Caeserstone, Corian, or any of that tacky junk.
“What a difference 2 years make! Back in June, 2006, I was one of only few commenters that bravely said that SF prices will go down for the next 4 years. Now it seems like everyone is on the same page. Better late than never.”
but these are still the highest noe condos ever?
My wife ultimately made the decision, as I said, I would have picked marble. It actually looks a fair bit like marble in the color and texture and it wears better than granite. Consumer Reports rated it as its top overall counter surface.
Cement and ceramic are also artificial surfaces and I think both of them look much worse. I don’t think you know what Caeserstone really is. It is also known as “engineered quartz” and is harder and more durable than anything out there right now. The only competition in that category is soapstone, which is extremely chemical and burn resistant, but is prone to scratching.
Granite would have been okay (it is the second highest rated countertop by CR) but I think it is kind of ubiquitous and boring.
Back in June, 2006, I was one of only few commenters that bravely said that SF prices will go down for the next 4 years
It remains to be seen if your prediction was correct. Home prices are still a bit higher than they were in June 2006. Probably better to be a bit early than a bit late in this case though, if you are trying to time the market.
“What a difference 2 years make!”
The bears on this board don’t get shouted down as tinfoil hat idiots anymore but prices in the “RealSF” haven’t gone down and there’s no sign of general capitulation on the board.
^^^I certainly never thought the folks who expected price declines were “tinfoil hat idiots”, but I had doubts that we would be entering a depression by now – which I believe you were squawking about a couple years ago, diemos?
“which I believe you were squawking about a couple years ago, diemos?”
Banks going bust, unemployment rising, companies going bankrupt, major financial institutions being taken over by the government, asset prices declining.
Yup, “entering a depression” sounds just about right to me to describe the current situation.
Just because you and I still have our jobs does not mean that all is well with the Republic. It’s good to remember that 70% of the population kept their jobs during the Great Depression and for them the GD was mainly comprised of reading a series of stories in the paper about other peoples troubles.
Perhaps you have noticed an upsurge recently of stories in the papers about other peoples troubles? I’m sure the mortgage brokers who used to be pulling in 200K/year and are currently waitling tables for minimum wage might have a different perspective about the state of the economy.
“I literally do not understand the decision process that leads ANYONE to Caeserstone, Corian, or any of that tacky junk.”
While i’m not a big fan of those manufactured surfaces, I wouldn’t go so far as to call Caesarstone tacky junk. It actually looked really nice before she treated it like she would treat counter space in a commercial kitchen.
As for the color/scratching of soapstone- because it is soft it scratches easily, but because it is soft, the scratches buff out easily. I personally like how it wears (scratches & all) because it gives it more character, but that’s just me. Also, Jim is sort of right about the color, my friend’s countertops are very black (with some minor white & grey veining) but she wipes it down with mineral oil every 2 weeks which keeps the color more rich. The biggest downside for soapstone that I have seen is the color choices (or lack there of), but if I owned I would put it in a heartbeat because they can handle stains, high heat, etc. I would probably ruin a Caesarstone countertop in about 6 months!
Corian is plastic made of acrylic polymer and alumina trihydrate. Caesarstone is an aggregate composed mostly of quartz. Congealed oil and compressed sand have very different properties. Corian performance is more like laminate than stone. Caesarstone has performance that some say exceeds most granite, but all granite varies and no granite is available in pure and consistant white that shows the smallest variation from use or damage.
re: countertop materials
My wife and I seriously considered soapstone from M. Teixeira here in SF, http://www.soapstones.com. They have some really lovely rock: gorgeous veining, rich greens–a far cry from your high school chem lab’s countertop.
But we opted instead for a manufactured quartz (Silestone, in “Blanco Maple”–a somewhat less expensive competitor to Caeserstone). Our decision was driven by aesthetics (the quartz-flecked white of “blanco maple” goes fabulously with our walnut surround, brushed aluminum trim, and white-enameled cabinets); by price (the silestone was nearly 50% less than the soapstone we like); and reputed durability. Maybe we were misled about durability, but we’ve had no problems so far (3 months of hard use), and we were told that the surface can be repolished.
We looked at them, too, but you either oil your soapstone, in which case it is a very dark blackish green (perhaps with veining) or you don’t oil it and it shows stains pretty easily. If you spill oil on the surface, for example, you have a dark spot forever.
Which is fine for a “industrial” look I guess, but that is not what we were aiming for.
Regarding counter surfaces, what about carrera marble- in many parts of Europe, they are used for kitchen countertops as well as sink basins. Home owners THERE there like the scratches and staining and see the “wear” as desirable.
But for those of us HERE in the US, where stains are not as well regarded, we have HONED carrera marble, and I’m told this is far more stain resistant.
IS THIS TRUE??
@ CONIFER
“If the property is good enough, some SF neighborhoods (Noe) attract per square foot prices equal or better than Russian Hill or Pacific/Presidio Heights.”
I agree. I am a builder of spec homes and Noe/Eureka Valley is where I do my business. My job is to hire talented Architects, persistent permit expeditors, gifted carpenters and tile setters and guide them all to success.
Our success will be measured by the extent to which I drive that price per square foot number skyward. I must coordinate many people to produce an extraordinary home.
Would love to [hear] blogger feedback regarding these thoughts.
“Our success will be measured by the extent to which I drive that price per square foot number skyward. I must coordinate many people to produce an extraordinary home.”
Huh. And here I always thought success for a business was measured as the difference between revenue and cost. Or as economists like to say, profit.
There’s a reason that some car companies produced testarosas and some produce the focus. Because different people have different needs.
I’m with diemos on that. I don’t feel like I need to drive the number skyward on my jobs, I like to work off a profit number based on the lower end of existing comps. and try to beat my budget. If I drive the number higher, then my next purchase costs me more. I think that I am viewed as a cheerleader on here but I’m not, stagnant values are the ideal for me; with run-down fixers commanding there actual worth and not there “expansion potential”
They sold two already at wish-price. Now the others are out at win-price.
LOL. I feel like I am reading the Realtor Cheer-leading Chronicle RE section. This kind of talk is so Florida 2005.
That building is just way too busy.
I for one am surprised these didn’t sell (and that they took such heavy price cuts). The views are incredible, and the construction seems pretty nice for this price point.
Maybe the market has changed more than the agents are letting on?
“What a difference 2 years make! Back in June, 2006, I was one of only few commenters that bravely said that SF prices will go down for the next 4 years. Now it seems like everyone is on the same page. Better late than never.”
There were quite a few of us who saw this bubble as early as 2001 and refused to buy. we are now sitting at 2005 prices in SF and quickly headed to 2004…2003…2002….2001. My predicition is that Q2 01 and Q2 10 will be at the same price level
@spencer — wow! You think this in nominal dollars?
I think the “real SF” is more like at 2006 tho, which is consistent with my patented google price indicator (laugh all you want — it’s as good as anything else you folks are coming up with).
@diemos&sparky,
I think you are misunderstanding SF Builder, there is a difference between an agent trying to boost psf prices based on perception .vs. a builder opting for finishes/amenities/views etc.. to attract higher psf.
As someone who has been watching developers in 94114,94115 & 94131 there was a huge difference in the quality of construction just in the past 5 years. Not all the run up in psf is due to land or desirability.
Sparky are you building the same homes you built in 2003?
“@spencer — wow! You think this in nominal dollars?”
yes.
Someone,
Yes, I am building the same as I built in 2003; if not cheaper. That is based on material availability and the internet, not on quality. Although I do see a lot of $3M+ places with cheap finishes and Ikea cabinets, so I don’t think everyone is moving up in finishes at all.
related: I just did a search for my neighborhood for rentals on zilpy. As it turns out there are several Pac heigts rental 2bdr apts under $3K and several 1 bdrs at around $2K. these 2bdrs are average $1M + to own and the 1bdrs are average around $800K.
in other words, it costs 3x to own. this is unsustainable
Zilpy TrueRent estimate and neighborhood facts. The Rental estimate is based on similar properties on the market.US California San Francisco County San Francisco 94115 Buchanan St Buchanan St
Top 50 Most Relevant Properties
Comparables for xxxx Buchanan St
Address Rent Bdr Ba Sqft
Washington St & Buchanan St $2,995 2 2 –
2323 Laguna St $2,900 2 2 –
2200 Sacramento St $2,700 2 2 1100
Jackson St & Webster St $3,500 2 2 1100
2307 Sacramento St $1,250 2 1 850
2121 Laguna St $3,150 2 2 – 5/8/2008 Apartment/Condo Stove, Fresh Paint, Garage
2201 Sacramento St $3,000 2 2 – 4/20/2008 Apartment/Condo
Laguna St At Sacramento St $3,150 2 – – 4/19/2008 Apartment/Condo Garage
Sacramento St At Buchanan St $4,250 2 2 1450 4/11/2008 Apartment/Condo Gas Included, Garage, Swimming Pool
2380 Washington St $2,850 2 – – 3/24/2008 Apartment/Condo Stove, Fridge
2425 Buchanan Street $1,900 1 1 – 8/29/2008 Apartment/Condo Stove, Fridge
2266 California St $990 2 – 990 7/11/2008 – Basement
Jackson St At Buchanan St $1,950 1 1 – 6/3/2008 Apartment/Condo
2461 Washington St $1,500 1 1 – 5/8/2008 Apartment/Condo
2350 Washington St $2,100 1 1 – 6/14/2008 Apartment/Condo
Clay St At Buchanan St $1,375 Studio – – 6/28/2008 Apartment/Condo
2230 Steiner St $2,275 1 – – 6/27/2008 Apartment/Condo Basement, Backyard
Sacramento St At Laguna St $2,045 1 1 1560 6/27/2008 Apartment/Condo Stove, Fridge, Air Conditioner, Swimming Pool
“They sold two already at wish-price. Now the others are out at win-price.”
Would love to know who the realtors are that advised their clients to pay the developer’s “wish-price” aka the buyer’s “lose-price”.
Is there any way to find out?
Spencer wrote:
There were quite a few of us who saw this bubble as early as 2001 and refused to buy. we are now sitting at 2005 prices in SF and quickly headed to 2004…2003…2002….2001. My predicition is that Q2 01 and Q2 10 will be at the same price level
I agree with you 100%. I just found out from someone who works for Fannie Mae that they were and are still being instructed to hold foreclosed properties and problem loans from being sold at a discount. They don’t want to depress the house prices any further. I would be skeptical of the next housing numbers report.
I believe this kind of illegal activity (only the government can get away with this kind of crap) will come back to haunt them. It’s like an avalanche waiting to come down.
“I believe this kind of illegal activity (only the government can get away with this kind of crap) will come back to haunt them. It’s like an avalanche waiting to come down.”
John, I agree with you 100%, except for one thing. It’s not just the government that gets away with this. Commercial banks are also holding back inventory, and they are slowing the intitution of foreclosure proceedings.
The investment banks are even more crooked, especially with their Level 3 assets.
I believe this kind of illegal activity (only the government can get away with this kind of crap) will come back to haunt them
How can this possibly be illegal?
@diemos&sparky
Some people try to increase profit margin by saving money and watching the budget, but I do it by spending lots of money and trusting it will come back to me – this approach is working for me so far! I can’t imagine having any fun by focusing on the lower end of existing comps – I prefer to blaze a new trail! But we need many approaches to this business, so carry on!
No one knows what the two units sold for as they haven’t closed yet.
“How can this possibly be illegal?”
Under the 1934 Securities Exchange Act, listed companies on an exchange have all sorts of reporting requirements. They’re complex, but the basic overarching theme of the regulatory scheme is that public companies need to disclose material information, either through their regular filings (annual and quarterly reprts) or in special filings for interim periods (or, in the case of the GSEs, when you are not reporting regularly).
There is a coordinate “anti-fraud” scheme under the 1934 Act that also comes into play (cannot fail to state a material fact in the context of securities trading – including insider transactions) and disclosure requirements under the 1933 Securities Act in connection with new securities offerings to the public (didn’t Fannie just issue $7+ billion in preferred? though I’m not sure that it was “public” for purposes of the Act).
The 1933 and 1934 Acts IMO are some of the very few worthwhile accomplishments in the regulatory world done under FDR. Now, if only companies had to comply…..
“but I do it by spending lots of money and trusting it will come back to me – this approach is working for me so far!”
I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that you haven’t been doing this for more than 10 years and have not been through a real downturn. Your strategy works great when an inflating bubble is lifting all boats but you may not find it works as well on the downside.
diemos,
I’m guessing the above is a total fabrication; by someone who has now decided to move on from agent bashing to builder bashing.
I think diemos has asked a good question, and SF Builder should answer it honestly. SF Builder, how long have you been in business?