As a plugged-in tipster notes, 215 Moulton “in the heart of Cow Hollow” appears to have been bought back by the bank with a loan balance of $1,893,000 this past July.
And while the contract price for its previous sale in November of 2007 doesn’t appear to be public, we will note a 2008 tax assessed value of $1,800,000 for this District 7 single-family contemporary townhouse.
Listed in April prior to foreclosure for $1,895,000, reduced to $1,795,000 in July, and currently asking $1,750,000.
∙ Listing: 215 Moulton (3/3.5) – $1,750,000 [215moulton.com] [MLS]
my take is that its a very bad time to need to sell a very expensive condo on an alley. its also a very bad time to need to sell anything anywhere.
Paco – you hit the bulls eye. Those selling NEED to sell. I’m suprised the bank took it bank, and priced it the way it did….
I can’t disagree with paco here. But 2009 will be even worse, and 2010 worse still. People need to start thinking in terms of a 10 year horizon IMO.
With jumbo 30 yr fixed at 9.2% (Wells Fargo), how are they going to sell this thing?
It’s barely in “Cow Hollow”- more like “Lombard Corridor”
Satchelfan,
You are blowing the interest rate out of proportion: the payments are MUCH less than you would imply, as my now tongue in cheek analysis will show. This is because the maximum LTV on a jumbo is about 30%. So it’s like the equivalent payment of 6% on a nothing down loan.
Let’s take an example:
$2M loan @ nothing down 6%: You pay about $10K/mo.
$2M loan @ 30% down 9.2%: you pay about $10.5K/mo.
The only difference is the very teensey fact that now you have to put down $600,000.00 where before you put down $0.00. But if you ignore that, and forget about the foregone interest, you’re really not paying that much more than you did before. See, it’s just that the bank now earns more money on $2M than it did before, but no one actually pays any more.
The magic of finance!!
Historically, isn’t 9.2% not all that bad?
People will always be able to sell properties in the very desirable areas of San Francisco. Folks, from here or abroad, will always have money to buy regardless of our country’s economic situation. Unfortunately, for the seller of this, I believe, townhouse/adjoining house, it is on Moulton, an alley, that shares traffic with the back exit of Mel’s, the “triangle” crowd that need the use of a restroom three nights a week and are too lazy, or bums who can’t lug their stuff up the hill. Got to love motion sensor lights. The positive, aside from the Miami Vice white 80’s type railings, is that it is not on landfill – south of Lombard – by one block. They have a chance at $1.5, but very stale.
TooHigh – Some people will always have money, but they won’t always be willing to overpay for properties. That blanket statement lacks any analysis or reference to facts and says nothing about the state or direction of the market. This property had all the problems you identify at its last sale/refi, didn’t it?
couple thoughts:
– Paco, this is a SFH, not a condo – not too many SFH’s in district 7 at this price. But I agree the price has gotta come down. I saw this home at least a couple of months ago when it was first listed. Why is it taking the agent/bank so long to figure out the only strategy is to cut price.
– Rocco – Moulton is kind of a cute street that people looking in cow hollow seem to like. The house is on the opposide side of Moulton from Lombard so noise is not bad. IMO two big issues with the house are a kitchen that’s not up to par and the fact that it’s spread out on 4 levels – too many stairs.
– tipster – I think you meant max LTV of 70%. Also not sure I’d agree that a 600K down is a “teensy” difference between now and the “good old days”. I know you’re being sarcastic but needing that huge nut up front is enough to price many people out. Not to open up a can of worms on ss but there is an opportunity cost to that being tied up too – Wells is still paying 3% interest on CDs.
DCH,
You are right for the most part, look at my comments again. Some people will have always money as we agree on, but this place – that has been on the market forever, is priced to high and is not desirable, either now, last year when it was for sale, or when it was built – which, again, we agree on. My analysis, as you have requested above – strange, is simple – if a house or a condo is in a great area of SF or any other “desirable” city (NYC, Paris, etc.) it will sell for asking or above. By the way, there are plenty of buyers who will overpay, a guy just paid $4.6 for a unit one floor above me – same view. It is worth $2.9 maximum – big difference and that person was willing to pay it. This particular property is worth $1.5 at best.
You guys are way over-estimating the rich foreign buyers propping up SF real estate prices. With the recent crash in the World Wide stock Markets, I’m sure foreigners are feeling even poorer than US Stock investors because they’ve taken an even bigger beating.
Here’s a sampling:
Shanghai Index 52 wk high 6100, now 2200. -64%
Hong Kong 52 wk high 32000, now 19000. -40%
Taiwan 52 wek hight 9800, now 6100 -38%
UK FTSE 52 wk high 6800, now 4900. -28%
DCH,
Look at my comments again and sorry for not pleasing you – kidding. Some people will have always money as we agree on, but this place – that has been on the market forever, is priced to high and is not desirable, either now, last year when it was for sale, or when it was built – it’s the same, which, again, we agree on. My blanket analysis, as you suggested – strange, is obviously simple – if a house or a condo is in a great area of SF or any other “desirable” city (NYC, Paris, etc.) it will sell for asking or above. By the way, there are more than plenty of buyers who will overpay for high-end properties. One example, guy just paid $4.6 for a unit one floor above me – same view. It is worth $2.9 maximum – big difference and that person was willing to pay for it, was on the market for a week. This particular property above is worth $1.5 at best. I’m from SF originally and have never seen a downturn at any time in Dist 7,8., aside from on Moulton or the still for sale firestation house.
You may see districts 7 and 8 fall yet.
The bailout at this point appears to be going down in flames.
http://tw.youtube.com/watch?v=mbD62gNi9WE
However, never underestimate the power of money in this country. The bankers have lots of it.
The betting odds are that a bailout will pass. 80% at InTrade – jsut read on Money.com.
Anyone have any comments on what they think will happen with no bailout? Is it all doom? What kind of unemployment are we talking about and how the hell did we get here? Was it all greed? I thought these people were smart. They never thought real estate would come down again? I always hear Satchel talk about the fundamentals were never sound, so who pushed these bad loans through and why did so many people buy them up?
“You may see districts 7 and 8 fall yet.”
Guaranteed at this point, bailout or no bailout. the game is ending, and soon the USG and Fed will face the question whether to sacrifice the leveraged homeowners or sacrifice the USD. Notice how the Fed is not resorting to “printing”? I mean, wouldn’t it be easier for just the treasury to do a “special auction” of $250B of treasuries once a quarter and just have the Fed print the money and advance the treasuries to its member banks? It certainly would cause less stir – average people wouldn’t even notice it (until the inflation hit them, of course, but they’d never connect the two, just like SF residents don’t connect the price of their houses with the Fed’s credit inflation policies that have now ended).
“never underestimate the power of money in this country. The bankers have lots of it.”
That’s right. They have all the money, and the “people” have all the leveraged assets (but no money). Wouldn’t it be better to deflate those assets now, so that that money can buy EVEN MORE? Why in the world would anyone expect the banksters to sacrifice their golden goose?
saw this place about a month ago. very disjointed layout, lots of stairs and somewhat in poor quality (mainly cosmetic) compared to the pics.
it is a SFH, but I’m not sure I would call Moulton next to Filmore “cute” as you have to deal with the sound of the bar across the alley.
anon,
“Anyone have any comments on what they think will happen with no bailout?”
It would be MUCH better if the bailout fails, and the system blows up. IMO we would be in for a very difficult 12-24 months. Unemployment would rise to likely 15%, and stocks would fall another 20% and housing another 30%. By end 2010 it would be all over, we would be on a much more sustainable growth path, and in 20 years no one will talk about it. How many people talk about the Depression of 1920-21 these days?
If the bailout passes, we will get another Great Depression, I can almost guarantee it. People think there is a deus ex machina, or that somehow, “government” can make it all better. It won’t. It will make it much worse. I posted it on another thread, but if you are interested in what’s gone wrong (and you seem to be), I would again recommend Rothbard’s “America’s Great Depression”, written in 1963 and available free on the web in pdf. In the 5th edition, the pages following page 209 are the most relevant for where we are.
The policy prescription that would work here, would be: (1) lower taxes; (2) removal of disincentives for savings, therefore, higher interest rates, no tax on bank deposits, no capital gains taxes, etc.; (3) no attempt to protect falling incomes for “average” Americans; and (4) less government spending (all gov spending is consumption, and we need savings). Let the asset prices go where they want – nothing can stop it anyway. The chances of the USG adopting such a policy are zero, so hello deep deep downturn.
Pretty much everywhere in SF is burned toast right now. Our most wealthy residents have certainly been hammered by the market downturn. Let me do a little sleuthing for some data or anecdotes. I’ve always felt the luxury market here is tied to portfolio performance as opposed to easy access to loans. If rich people aren’t making any money, they aren’t going house shopping. High-end realtors are starting to price very, very conservatively and unsold homes are seeing 10% reductions in list prices. This will probably be the absolute worst fall in recent memory for SF real estate, even in Pacific Heights. If you don’t have to sell, pull it off the market.
I saw one of these townhouses on Moulton a few years ago and at the time both my agent and the seller’s gave the location a thumbs up – close to everything but insulated from the noise and traffic of the busier streets.
I agree that there will always be demand for good houses in good locations but that doesn’t mean that prices won’t fall for even the best of the best.
The front of this place smells like the garbage from the back of Mels. The bathrooms are weak: white tile counters if I remember.
Kind of off topic, but where’s the range vent/hood? I don’t see one of those downdraft kinds unless I am missing something.
no kthnxybe, actually thank you for getting back to the topic. as i mentioned earlier this kitchen is lacking.
ur right – there is no vent, and from the floorplans looks like there’s no easy way to add one over the current stove location. the counterspace and cabinet space is lacking. the appliances are run-of-the-mill. the broker is advertising a “4 burner gas stove” and “wood cabinets” – as opposed to what??? the cabinets look like they’re from IKEA. you have to bend over for both ovens. the backsplash is shabby. the low windows prevent you from easily expanding the counter space. from what i remember the stove was improperly fitted into the countertop.
sorry for the rants, but anyone who’s turned on HGTV for more than 5 minutes knows that kitchens sell houses and this one is very sub par.
I bid $1.5 mil 6 months ago, and told the selling agent, despite all her experience her asking was too high. The seller relocated to the east coast, and the company bought them out at their cost, as part of their relocation package fyi.
Is there a website for bullish real estate agents to comment on the state of the market in neighborhoods like Cow Hollow, Pac Heights, etc? I can’t find one.
“my take is that its a very bad time to need to sell a very expensive condo on an alley. its also a very bad time to need to sell anything anywhere.”
Good seats too?
ok chunkie…,
what do you want me to say? real estate only goes up?
good seats, bad seats, seats that require mortgages- for all of these its not a good time to sell. but it may be a good time to buy if you can take advantage of the situation.
not too hard to understand.
Ha ha… I know it’s a buyer’s market 🙂
“Historically, isn’t 9.2% not all that bad?”
Historically (90’s), 8% was the tipping point – below that was considered good, and above that was considered kinda high. Typically jumbo rates have been only a slight premium to conforming loans and that’s where we’re seeing the biggest difference now. Here’s a history of conforming mortgage rates compiled by the Federal Housing Finance Board to give you an idea where rates have generally ranged.
http://www.erate.com/mortgage_rates_history.htm
Is there a website for bullish real estate agents to comment on the state of the market in neighborhoods like Cow Hollow, Pac Heights, etc? I can’t find one.
Try this one: http://sfarmls.rapmls.com/
“the state of the market in neighborhoods like Cow Hollow, Pac Heights,etc,?”
It could be called “www.theREALsf.com”, but the readership would be very small, since it seems the REAL S.F. is getting smaller and smaller. Noe used to be a part of this exclusive group, but maybe we are going back to the days of nothing exists south of California Street?
“Try this one: http://sfarmls.rapmls.com/“
Quote of the [short] week.
This one is back @ $1.535
Wow, I’m shocked with how honest that listing is about the Golden Gate Bridge view. It’s not a standing on a ladder, craning one’s neck 63 degrees to the left, and reaching as far as you can picture, but rather a natural one.
Strange sale history:
Aug 04, 1999 Sold (Public Records) $1,195,000
Nov 06, 2007 Sold (MLS) $1,800,000
Jul 03, 2008 Sold (Public Records) $1,893,000
Nov 14, 2008 Sold (MLS) $1,725,000
Nov 14, 2008 Sold (Public Records) $1,725,000
$1.862M is $1.8M inflation-adjusted to 2009. That’s an 18% real drop and a 15% nominal drop.
Interestingly, $1.195M inflation-adjusted to 2009 is $1.539M, so we’re back at a 1999 price.
This thread is a nice blast from the past. It is funny to see how far off the gloom and doomers were.
NVJ, you’re being facetious, right? The calls on this thread were pretty much spot on.
If the bailout passes, we will get another Great Depression, I can almost guarantee it
If you think we are in the middle of a Great Depression, you have a poor understanding of economic history.
The stock market shot up in the middle of the last great depression. Everyone thought the trouble had passed then, too. The great hing about government actions is that the benefits are frequently realized before the costs.
We’re in the sweet spot right now: the party is on and the bills haven’t yet come due. But they will. Will something else intervene to save the day? We can only hope.
If the bailout passes, we will get another Great Depression, I can almost guarantee it
Oh, that’s what you’re talking about? A single line from Satchel? I thought you were talking about the actual subject of the thread. Even as to Satchel’s one-liner, your proclamations are a little premature, at best.
Back on the market for $1.599MM
Geez, what is this, the property from hell?!
It was SOLD, three weeks ago for 1.54. So the prior owner held it for one year at a cost of about $30,000 per month.
Now the person who bought it three weeks ago is going to try to sell it for $59K more than they bought it for, but pay the realtors $80,000 in commission, and with transfer taxes and mortgage origination fees for ANOTHER $30,000 per month loss?