Our number for closed units at Infinity as of four weeks ago: 208 (57%). From the Chronicle today: 225 (61%). Roughly 85% in contract or closed.
Our number for closed units at One Rincon Hill as of three weeks ago: 176 (47%). From the Chronicle today: 192 (51%). Roughly 92% in contract or closed.
S.F. condominium sales strong in recent months [SFGate]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by Craig

    Pretty amazing to me, really.

  2. Posted by cooper

    Infinity has been at roughly 80% “in contract or closed” since like forever….the sales office refuses to lower those prices so those units are not moving.
    At this point, all the infinity could be closed though since the first building is done.
    As for ORH, I think the last scheduled close is first week in September and the upper floors are still being done.
    ORH has a lot of the upper floors not even done yet so this number looks slightly better for them in my book.
    that’s my read on the #s anyway.
    Very interesting.

  3. Posted by ex SF-er

    Am I reading this correctly?
    Does this mean that 51% of the ORH units have closed, and another 41% are in contract but yet to close, and 9% are still on the market?
    and that 61% of I units have closed, another 24% are in contract but not yet closed, and 15% still on market?
    I’m surprised there are so many units still not in contract or closed…
    And do those “not in contract and not closed” numbers include the ‘treetop’ units or whatever they’re called?
    [Editor’s Note: Yes (although that would be an 8 not 9 for ORH).]

  4. Posted by Trip

    From the Chron article:
    “Sales of new homes in San Francisco – which almost exclusively means condos since little else is built here – rose 18.7 percent from June 2007 to June 2008, according to research firm DataQuick Information Systems. The median price, however, fell 32.5 percent during that time to $399,000.”
    That median price simply can’t be right, can it? Anyone have any explanation, or is it just characteristically sloppy reporting?

  5. Posted by curmudgeon

    I thought the same thing Trip…where are the sub-400K new condos being unloaded?

  6. Posted by Satchel

    That $399K number sounds wrong.
    But perhaps a bulk sale or two to groups for apartment (rental) conversion? We’re not talking about huge numbers of sales here, and a bulk sale of 100 or 200 would really skew it all.

  7. Posted by SocketSite

    That median price simply can’t be right, can it? Anyone have any explanation, or is it just characteristically sloppy reporting?
    We have a hypothesis (can you say Below Market Rate?), and if we’re correct, not only is that median number even more meaningless than usual, but using the associated 18.7 percent year-over-year increase in recorded sales as evidence of a “strong” market is as well (meaningless that is).

  8. Posted by r

    The closing figures for both buildings are a good thing. It is nearly impossible to close units at a fatser rate than those mentioned. Most buildings have a single dedicated service elevator for each core, and cannot handle more than one or two moevins per day.
    It would be more interestig to know the details on the units not in contract. If the units are studios, small one bedrooms, or 2/1 (I think Infinity had a couple), then you can make an assumption that the market is effeciently allocating money towards the most deisreable units. (i.e. If Infinity is out of 2/2’s, but I can purchase one nearby at an attractive pricepoint, then I will forgoe an Infinity purchase). If the remaining units are skewed towards 2/2’s and 3 bedroom units, then, well, not good…

  9. Posted by SFBrian

    I would also be interested in seeing figures on what percent of the units in the Infinity and One Rincon Hill are being rented out and how long, on the average, the rental listings remain on Craigslist before the owner finally succeeds in renting them.

  10. Posted by anono

    I think a ton of units at 888 7th (Infinity’s BMR units?) just started officially closing, which would drive down the median and drive up the sales numbers.

  11. Posted by gmh

    Well, if a bunch of ORH and Infinity units closed, that would explain why fluj and others are saying that D9 July sales look solid in terms of numbers and (presumably) median price, even as prices on some apples-to-apples D9 units appear to falling considerably. Now can we all just get along? 🙂

  12. Posted by view lover

    well so much for these buildings having trouble. with 9% to go on a building that is not even finished is pretty amazing. Same with Infinity.

  13. Posted by cooper

    You guys are crazy if you think those #s are good.
    Both buildings have been at 10% -20% left to close for year now.
    Guess what—if a contract falls out, or they have trouble closing the sales office marks that as still in contract.
    Infinity could have closed ALL those units–all of em. But they can’t cuz they buyers can’t close ont heir contracts. Thats why the 2nd building isn’t being sold–its cuz they can’t close the first building.

  14. Posted by toni

    “with 9% to go on a building that is not even finished is pretty amazing.”
    Not so amazing considering ORH has been 90% sold for two years and at one point was 95%+ sold.

  15. Posted by REpornaddict

    Yup that sounds very odd – will be interested to know what caused that spike – and the associated plummet in June prices.
    As an aside, though, presumably these lower prices were refelcted in Junes dataquick median price data?
    If so, then little surprise that showed a 12% YOY drop – but that would be meaningless too.

  16. Posted by r

    Cooper:
    There is a big difference between sales and closings. I think you are confusing the two. Sales are nice, but closings are gold.
    Just like with individual homeowners, a developers financing method will dtermine his ability to hold units. Typical condo tower underwrtiting in 2004-2006 usually involved a loan that maxed out around 65% cost. Banks underwrite conodo towers to a senior debt basis that will support rental units. The loan usually calls for net proceeds acceleration on the front end until the loan is driven down to a certain point (usually sub 50%). This means that if a profitable project has early closing success, then a lot of the rik is removed by the first round of closings.
    The big wild card is where the financing for the equity component came from. If an institutional investor provided the equity, they typical;ly have a preffered return, plus profit sharing. This preffered return can errode a developers return quickly if closings stall. When this happens, the equity investor begins to call the shots, and the devloper becomes a fee puppet who cooperates in exchange for certain consideration.
    If a developer self finances their equity component, their holding power is greatly increased, as the only cost of empty units, is the opportunity cost of the trapped capital.

  17. Posted by phatty

    I think Cooper may be right. When I almost purchased a place at the Infinity back in Nov (when they were still 80% sold…), I was asking for the last closing date possible. The date they were going to give me would have been a month ago… so why hasn’t 24% closed?
    I’ve got to think that they’re in some trouble – that second tower is looking pretty close to being done, yet they aren’t selling still? I bet they take their sweet time finishing it so it doesn’t compete with tower I (which needs to drop its prices more…) and in hopes of a market turn-around (which is still not in the foreseeable future).

  18. Posted by tom

    I was looking at the infinity last weekend and my sales person took me aside and said she expected to get me 10% off. That was on top of the prices that are already 8% lower than re last time I looked. Not good.
    I’m not bashing here either, my son has a unit there.

  19. Posted by San FronziScheme

    The usual translation of sales talk: if a car salesman tells you he can get you 10% off, it probably means you can get 15%…

  20. Posted by Lance

    That $399K figure posted from the Chronicle has to be wrong. Even if you extrapolate the LY number using the 33% drop, that would mean a price last year of $525K – which also isn’t right. I think Trip hit it right on the head – “characteristically bad reporting”.

  21. Posted by phatty

    Tom, mind me asking what unit/floor plan you were looking at (or what they had available)? I’m wondering if the one I almost went for is still there – it was a low floor corner 2 bedroom on the NW side of the tower.

  22. Posted by weatherman

    I wonder whether some buyers in ORH and Infinity are having trouble with financing at 10% or even 20% down given the tight credit markets and uncertain appraisals for these units. If so, some of the sales may have slowed or contracts fallen out of escrow. This could be affecting the sales percentages.

  23. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Partially reposting from a different thread … amending some of the numbers based on the 85% and 92% under contract figures.
    “More than 225 condos have closed escrow in the 365-unit first phase, the cloverleaf-shaped glass tower at Folsom and Spear streets, said Carl Shannon, managing director for developer Tishman Speyer. More than half of the remaining condos are in contract.”
    So, for the Infinity, if 15% are NOT under contract, that comes out to 55 condos of inventory. That also assumes that none of the existing contracts fall out, which is far from a given in the current credit environment. Those ‘falling out’ go straight into the inventory pool, with no ‘second chance’.
    “Buyers at One Rincon Hill, the 64-story building that soars above the western approach to the Bay Bridge, have completed the sale of 192 units in its 376-unit first phase, said Garrett Chan, vice president of sales with Pacific Marketing Associates Inc., which markets that building.
    Nearly all the rest are in contract, and they’ve been closing at a rate of around 40 units per month, project spokesman Spencer Moore said.”
    With 8% of inventory NOT under contract, that’s 30 units. Accordingly, Infinity has almost TWICE the remaining inventory [55 vs 30] as ORH. Remember, that’s all before that 360 unit white elephant [aka Tower II] has sold a single unit. No telling how much pricing pressure the looming second tower will have on those remaining 55 units. Econ 101 tell us it will probably be significant.
    As with the Infinity, some of the ORH units under contract may fall out of contract in the current tight credit environment. Typically those are what one sees on Craigslist – buyers who can’t close [usually can’t obtain financing] and a looking to assign their contracts. These have been really bad P.R. for ORH, but they have served a practical purpose. Where contracts are assigned to parties that ARE able to close, it does mean less contract fallout and consequently less inventory. No such ‘second chance’ at the Infinity, because the Infinity does not permit contract assignments.
    Accordingly, while the Craigslist ‘assignment’ market has made ORH look like it’s in trouble [the bad P.R. situation] it has ultimately placed ORH in a STRONGER position than the Infinity, with about half as much inventory remaining [55 vs 30] as assignments that do close continue to reduce available inventory.
    So the lack of a Craigslist market for the Infinity may make it seem like all is well, but [as the numbers reveal] this can be deceptive. Units go back into inventory far more ‘quietly’, but the inventory perhaps builds at a greater rate than if assignments were permitted.

  24. Posted by ex SF-er

    I agree with ORH buyer on this.
    the already-built infinity tower will be bad for future infintity tower-1 pricing.
    I feel that infinity is doing a gamble to not just open up bidding for building #2. might as well get as many people in there as possible as early as possible. They likely think the RE downturn will be quick (a year or so) and that it will be better next year. That is a gamble. it could be worse.
    that said, If infinity falls too much in price it would of course affect ORH prices too, since in many ways they are substitutions for one another.

  25. Posted by tipster

    I would suspect that those people who are having trouble financing are initially going to just push the closing date back to try to hold on to their deposits and assign the contracts.
    So you will see some of the inventory that is coming back to both developments still listed in the “under contract” numbers, when, in reality, they have no real chance of ever closing in a credit market that gets ever tighter.
    The inventory that each development will likely end up stuck with will be somewhere around 15-25%. Which is why they are now so eager to discount: they know how many people have pushed their closing dates back because they can’t get financing.
    Just the change in credit terms has likely locked out of the market entirely at least 20% of the people who could have qualified 18 months ago, and another 5% at least will just walk away when they realize they won’t even be able to get a fraction of their deposit back by assigning on craigslist.

  26. Posted by smarty

    Recent ORH buyer, do you think if, for example, Buyer Joe was suppose to close on his Infinity condo in March but couldn’t get the financing; would the Infinity grab his 3% on the spot and slap his unit back in the market pool, thus lowering that 80% # we’ve been hearing for over a year now. Or would they simply ‘extend’ his closing date for him in case he can fund in the future, and quietly shop around his ‘unlisted’ unit?
    Infinity has been closing units since Jan. And they can close 40 a month. It’s Aug, and 225 have closed. Now I ain’t to keen on mathematics – anyone got a calculator for that one?

  27. Posted by sf

    1rh is only 60% completed which means the first tower is already 90% full. This is amazing!!!

  28. Posted by Louis

    there is a HUGE diffrence between contract and closed — forget about under contract.
    it looks to me like the infinity has really passed and pulled way ahead of ORH in terms of tangible results.
    i think their location advantage will outweigh the upper floor views of ORH.
    the other issue is that ORH closed in phases bottom up and they may have a tough time with their high floor – high price buyers getting jumbo mortgages which are through the roof now on rates and terms.
    those were supposed to be the best buyers and most closable sales but it might not work out that way.
    i dont have any interest in either building and dont follow this is much as some people on this page. but that the way it looks here.

  29. Posted by anon

    I’m surprised that, in this market, both places seem to doing pretty well.
    And all this sturm und drang about Infinity tower 2 is kind of laughable. Anytime there’s more inventory it may effect prices of existing units (that’s one reason why NIMBYs around here don’t like new housing to be built). The same will be true of ORH 2 if it gets built, and the Californian, Turnberry, etc, etc. It’s called a market place.

  30. Posted by unearthly

    There are still lots of units available at the Infinity, some are prime, some are not. Based on my conversation with the sales office, they will deal with anything available. Seemed like lot’s of stuff is on the verge of falling out of contract; they are ready to take those back and deal.
    I checked out a 3-Bed/2-Bath/Terrace unit in one of the non-tower buildings. It was listed at $1.4M and soft quoted at $1.3M; you could bargain it down further.
    IMO the Infinity will deal more than ORH because of Tower 2. I was told Tower 2 would go on sale in September with a move-in set for late 2009, early 2010. I don’t think they’ll release Tower 2 until 85% of Tower 1 has closed. I decided to lease at the Infinity and wait for Tower 2. I also looked at leasing at the Brannan and the Watermark but not ORH due to it’s location.

  31. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Ex-SFer,
    You bring up a good point – if Infinity prices fall far enough, they may well have an impact on ORH pricing. However, given how overpriced they were [IMO] to start with, they have pretty far to fall. A couple of examples from an earlier thread –
    #20B in tower I sold closed on 3/9/08 at $1.77m or $1345 per sq. ft. Nice water views here.
    That would be over 300 per sq. ft MORE than either 2202 or 2602 which sold at around $1000 per sq. ft.
    #17H in Tower I sold for $1.39m on 3/2/08 or $1053 per sq. ft. This faces west, overlooking Main and Folsom, will eventually look right at Tishman III & IV across the street, and the ‘temporary’ Greyhound bus station fairly soon.
    That’s still more than either 2202 and 2602 where even cynics would admit the views are sensational.
    Personally I was never impressed with the Infinity units. Their white kitchens looked like they belonged in my dentist’s office and anything with impressive views [I am unquestionably a view whore] were upto 50% more than what I could find at ORH. I never understood why they didn’t allow a different color option for their kitchens – those alone were a huge negative for us. Admittedly part of the disparity is that ORH has pretty great views even from the lower floors, while unobstructed views at Infinity I start at 15-20, as one has that pesky Hills Plaza in the way.
    Accordingly, these units do have quite far to fall before they become interchangable with ORH, at least on an absolute price basis. Be interesting to see what happens.

  32. Posted by Cooper

    Actually I think that Infinity is still priced quite a bit above ORH.
    I’ve seen prices for top floors getting close to 1000 per square foot now in ORH and but in infinity the sales office is still holding firm at like 1200 to 1300 per square foot which is a pretty steep premium just to have a slightly nicer floor plan and a nicer neighborhood (and less view as ORH points out).

  33. Posted by 94114

    “Personally I was never impressed with the Infinity units”.
    Really? Recent ORH buyer, I didn’t know that.

  34. Posted by cooper

    Wait a second, ORH Home buyer was not impressed with the Infinity? Wow -that’s so weird.

  35. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    “And all this sturm und drang about Infinity tower 2 is kind of laughable.”
    Anon,
    Did you pay attention in your Econ 101 class? When supply explodes from 55 units to 415 [55+360] or supply increases almost 8 FOLD, how far down the demand curve do you think it will intersect? Saying it’s a non issue is laughable.
    When built, Turnberry, Californian and ORH II will unquestionably have an impact – I agree. However, developers of all of the above will try to time that moment when they feel the market will be more receptive to these new levels of inventory.

  36. Posted by anon

    Yes, supply and demand. When new supply comes onto the market, it could effect existing prices. I’m saying that the same argument can be made about ANY new building (OMG–with the Millennium/SFBlu/ORH2/Infinity2 coming onto the market the entire market will tank!).
    I for one, think the more housing the better. Obviously, it’s going to have an impact. And as I stated before, the Infinity tower 2 units are going to have the more, better views, so they’ll be asking a premium. These big developers do their homework. I doubt their going to dump the tower 2 units in a fire sales. That’s possible, of course, but I find that extremely unlikely.
    I’ll also go out on a limb and say that after the first year there will be alot of infinity units coming onto the market.
    People not expecting to compete with a number of similar units when they buy or sell a condo shouldn’t be buying in these large developments. Competition is a given.

  37. Posted by unearthly

    The ‘white kitchen’ is Studio Becker and the quality is actually quite good. I had Poliform in my last house and I would say that the stuff in the Infinity is just a notch below. I’ll have to check out a unit at One Rincon to see was the fuss is about.

  38. Posted by buyer

    I bought a no view two bedroom at the Infinity for about $750 per square foot. What is the premium of views? How screwed am I?

  39. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Unearthly,
    I have no qualms about the quality of the kitchens at the Infinity – Studio Becker is great stuff, and by no means cheap. My issue has been with the off-white color which looks antiseptic to me. Given that preferences do differ, I found it surprizing that no other color/style options were available. The same was true with the bathrooms – very much a take it or leave it attitude. Be interesting to see if they change their tune for Tower II.
    Cooper & 94114 – I guess you learn something new about my likes and dislikes every day 🙂
    Smarty – As I understand it, if a buyer fails to close by the closing date, he essentially defaults on his obligation and loses his deposit. Not sure if either Infinity or ORH are ‘extending’ closing dates to help people out. However, if you are planning on financing with 5% down and all banks say you now need 20%, a few more months probably won’t be of much use. However, if you are [say] liquidating your business and will have the money within [say] two weeks, I would imagine both might be willing to work with you.
    Interesting that the Infinity started closing in January. We were among some of the earlier closings at ORH in mid-February. The fact that ORH started closing units a month later than the Infinity may explain the 192 vs. 225 closings ‘lag’.

  40. Posted by bernielomax

    You can’t fight losing your deposit for so many reasons. Don’t just walk away.

  41. Posted by um

    um, I would rather the sales team handle defaults than letting people spam craigslist.
    posting all these units on craigslist has an impact on perceived value. not good for the folks at ORH. I do feel bad for the folks who bought low level units at ORH. they will be the last to flip even considering the lower price psf.

  42. Posted by s beach

    “um, I would rather the sales team handle defaults than letting people spam craigslist.
    posting all these units on craigslist has an impact on perceived value. not good for the folks at ORH”
    Yeah, again perception is big in real estate and unfortunately, One Rincon’s reputation is SHOT and their perception is so vastly negative. Craigslist has given them a pretty big black eye and I’ve gotten spammed several times by realtors representing desperate contracts holder trying to sell. There’s many more One Rincon sellers than what’s seen on CL. Many are quietly shopping their units that aren’t on the MLS or CL. My agent alone hears whispers of a dozen or so owners that’s quietly trying to offload their units.
    I don’t care too much about Infinity, but I give Webcor kudos for keeping their site clean and liveable. Walk around Infinity’s block and it’s surprising how neat everything is. All the common areas are complete and they’ve blocked off the 2nd tower’s construction.
    One Rincon’s Bovis? Well, that’s another story. Is it me or is Bovis incapable of handing a large project? They can’t even finish the freaking common grounds. How hard can that be?? At the very least, Bovis is not inserting much confidence to prospective buyers with the war zone like mess they created on the site. 5 months after move in, the place still looks like a wasteland. And is it true they are incapable of putting in a simple pool??

  43. Posted by recentinfinitybuyer

    Just for clarity, there were no closings at the Infinity in January. There were 29 closings in February (I was one of these) and there were about 20 closings in March. March was slightly slower as the building was working out the kinks/issues with the initial move ins. I believe the 35-40 range is what has occurred since then. So if I do my math, we should be at about 200-220 clsoings.

  44. Posted by suckeredbyinfinity

    I closed on my infinity unit a few months ago based on statistics that the sales office gave me saying we were 90% sold or in contract. Nothing could be further from the truth as most of the units that are in contract are people that can’t close or don’t want to close 20% under water.
    My realtor told me that even if I wanted to sell my unit I’d be 20-30% below what I bought it for which would wipe out the 15% equity we had in our unit.
    Don’t trust anything the infinity sales office tells you. My life savings is gone and we will likely lose our home before this is all done.

  45. Posted by fluj

    “My life savings is gone and we will likely lose our home before this is all done.”
    Why would you lose your home?

  46. Posted by jessep

    “My life savings is gone and we will likely lose our home before this is all done.”
    Whoa…Infinity looked really nice when I visited but I didn’t end up buying there.

  47. Posted by killbotkondo

    Hey “suckeredbyinfinity”, I’ve got a new phrase for ya: PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. I guarantee you’ll be a happier person when you can embrace what it means.

  48. Posted by jessep

    “Don’t trust anything the infinity sales office tells you. My life savings is gone and we will likely lose our home before this is all done.”
    I found Infinity’s prices to be way too high to be reasonable although I liked the building very much. This is surprising to me. It’s such a gorgeous building I would have thought surely most people paid cash to live there.

  49. Posted by s beach

    suckeredbyinfinity,
    I’m sorry to hear that. Personally, I believe some units at both One Rincon AND Infinity are 15-25% underwater the day the units closed. Curious what model you have and approx floor and $$ you paid for it?

  50. Posted by missionbayres

    As much as I like Infinity, I’m not surprise that many think it’s overvalued. Frankly, all three towers are probably overvalued given the state of the economy and the lack of demand.
    15-25% underwater? I wouldn’t go that far, but if I was a OneRincon or Infinity owner, I wouldn’t sell in the next 2-3 years unless I was willing to take a lost…

  51. Posted by um

    Um, don’t feel too bad suckedbyinfinity. I know of many people who went to ORH’s opening party and got drunk and put a deposit down. Now they are stuck in a position of trying to rid themselves of an unit in a half finished building. The only problem is that nobody wants their unit. They tried to post on craigslist and even lowered their price and still no takers. By chance one 2 unit low floor unit was bought off craigslist but it’ll be hard to find more fools who will buy them.
    Suckedbyinfinity sounds like a shill from Recent ORH…

  52. Posted by unearthly

    IMO the infinity is priced too high given that some of the views aren’t the greatest (Transbay/Parking Lot) and that some are affected by the second tower.
    As an example a non-tower unit with 1284 sqft has a stated price of $1.4M, or $1090/sqft. The soft quote was $1.3M or $1012/sqft. The view from inside the unit is marginal city lights but it does have a terrace from which you can see partial bay views. At $800/sqft I would think about purchasing it but that means a price reduction of 25%.
    Another tower unit with city views (20-27) closed at $1117/sqft. Will another buyer pay that much for the same unit today? Would a resale at $900/sqft be unreasonable (20% haircut)?

  53. Posted by Recent ORH Buyer

    “Suckedbyinfinity sounds like a shill from Recent ORH…”
    Um, thanks for thinking of me, but no.
    And while I fully admit being in the tank for ORH, there are plenty of other slanted adgenda’s here [that claim to be unbiased] in favor of their respective developments. At least on my end, you have full disclosure from my online handle.

  54. Posted by diemos

    “there are plenty of other slanted adgenda’s here [that claim to be unbiased] in favor of their respective developments.”
    It’s amazing to me just how much people’s ego and their social status is tied up in where they live. From the chicago vs sf thread to the orh vs infinity thread it all boils down to:
    “Ha! I have more social status than you!”
    “No you don’t!”
    “Yes I do!”
    “No you don’t. I’ve got views/better transit system/better weather/fewer homeless than that crappy place that YOU picked.”
    “You just point out supposed problems with my place because you’re jealous of my social status!”
    etc.
    How can we ever expect people to make rational, self-interested economic decisions on the biggest investment of their life when real estate is so tied up in irrational issues of social status.

  55. Posted by NoeValleyJim

    I think the Chicago vs. SF thing is more about Quality of Life instead of social status. But I see what you mean.

  56. Posted by cooper

    What’s the deal with the secret special pricing by infinity. I think the strategy they must use is–if they sense you are close to giving an offer but are concerned about price then they discount.
    Otherwise it’s hard to explain why its soo much more than ORH.
    Oh and to Recent ORH buyer- I honestly don’t think it makes sense for you to be so anti infinity unless you are an agent there or something. the truth is-the better one does, the better the other will do. If one tanks, that will adversely immpact the other project.
    you really should be rooting for both.
    right now infinity has more to lose tho since it has a larger building that is ready for move in in January and they have not finsihed selling the one they have.
    It’s gonna be interesting to watch.

  57. Posted by happyiknfinitybuyer

    I closed on my infinity unit a few months ago based on statistics that the sales office gave me saying we were 90% sold or in contract. Nothing could be further from the truth as most of the units that are in contract are people that can’t close or don’t want to close 20% under water.
    My realtor told me that even if I wanted to sell my unit I’d be 20-30% below what I bought it for which would wipe out the 15% equity we had in our unit.
    Don’t trust anything the infinity sales office tells you. My life savings is gone and we will likely lose our home before this is all done.
    Sounds like an unlucky flipper. Coming from a ‘quality’ Southern California development which pales in comparison to the quality of the Infinity and seeing what 1mill buys in Noe,for example, I’m quite happy with my Infinity purchase. While folks are waiting for a 20% sales office price reduction which may never happen, I’m enjoying my 1million $ view (maybe its only 800k now) but I’m not so young to wait.

  58. Posted by tina

    I have no doubt Infinity will do better than One Rincon Hill. Both projects I think will do well, but the Infinity has the more unique and special quality.
    I did not buy a unit at the Infinity but that freeway near One Rincon will be an eyesore forever.

  59. Posted by theloanphd

    Both of these properties will suffer declines in value. The fundamentals that drove prices to the $1000 – $1300psf range have completely reversed.
    Leverage GONE – It now takes a minimum of 25% down for any financing of loans above $729,750.
    Rates HIGHER – Attractive ARM or option ARM rates/payments are gone. Loans below $729,750 are not cheap either, as current 30 year fixed no point rates are approx 6.625% today and will be higher by Oct. 1 with changes announced by Fannie/Freddie.
    Speculator demand GONE – It now costs a minimum of 1.5 points for all non-owner property with many lenders charging additional fees for condos. Add to that the large carrying costs for these units as full P&I payments are required, rising unpredictable HOA fees, taxes and it is easy to see why investors will be squeezed out at these prices.
    Inventory will increase at both developments simply because buyers CANNOT close in the current credit environment. New buyers are waiting for price reductions/concessions and many of those are unaware of the current credit environment.
    And both properties have huge looming inventory. How is Infinity going to sell another building in this environment without lowering prices? I’d also be willing to bet that 2RH won’t be built for sometime, regardless of the statements coming from the developer.
    The fundamentals have changed and it isn’t temporary.

  60. Posted by s beach

    “Oh and to Recent ORH buyer- I honestly don’t think it makes sense for you to be so anti infinity unless you are an agent there or something. the truth is-the better one does, the better the other will do. If one tanks, that will adversely immpact the other project.”
    Yeah, it puzzles me why Recent ORH buyer and other Rincon buyers like to bash Infinity. You guys should be rooting for them. Appreciating prices at Infinity = appreciating prices at One Rincon. The “my d*&&# is larger than your’s” mentality does nothing but harm the biggest investment of you life. Talk about high school behavior!

  61. Posted by Somashopper

    “More than 225 condos have closed escrow in the 365-unit first phase …, said Carl Shannon, managing director for developer Tishman Speyer. More than half of the remaining condos are in contract. ..
    The sales team is closing about 50 units per month on average, a record in the city, according to Mark, who markets the building.”
    Anyone figure out that if Infintiy had closed an average 50 units per month since Feb, they’d be at 350 by now?

  62. Posted by anon

    Any update on the ORH second tower that was supposed to be built? What happens if they never build it? Will the HOA fees for tower one soar unless they cut back amenities?

  63. Posted by SkyGuy

    Anon asks, What happens if they never build [the second tower at ORH]? Will the HOA fees for tower one soar unless they cut back amenities?
    This question comes up every month or so. The towers are separate entities. There’s no reason to suppose that the HOA fees will change at all; it’s not as if Tower Two would have been subsidizing the costs from Tower One. Frankly, I don’t understand the people who comment that buyers in Tower One are somehow being shortchanged by the delay or absence of Tower Two. That was never part of the package.
    –SkyGuy (closing soon, finally – yay!)

  64. Posted by jessep

    “What happens if they never build [the second tower at ORH]? Will the HOA fees for tower one soar unless they cut back amenities?”
    I think all these ORH owners need to chill, take a breadth, maybe grab some beer at the 76 station across the street. Relax, and enjoy your multi-million dollar freeway views.

  65. Posted by Anonymous

    So has anyone actually walked away from ORH or Infinity? Did they lose their entire 3-5% deposit?

  66. Posted by SkyGuy

    Anonymous @ 8:07 asks, So has anyone actually walked away from ORH or Infinity? Yes.
    Did they lose their entire 3-5% deposit? Yes. I believe the limit is 3%.

  67. Posted by Trip

    Re deposits, either side can challenge the 3% limit (buyer wants no forfeiture, seller wants more), but it gets complicated and expensive to do so. I’m curious as to how these walk-aways are ending up. Is ORH/Infinity/etc. trying to take more than 3%, or has any buyer successfully fought and gotten the entire deposit back? Or are both sides calling it even at 3%?

  68. Posted by anon

    Frankly, I don’t understand the people who comment that buyers in Tower One are somehow being shortchanged by the delay or absence of Tower Two. That was never part of the package.
    Really? All the renderings on http://www.onerinconhill.com/ show two towers.

  69. Posted by SkyGuy

    Anon comments, All the renderings on http://www.onerinconhill.com/ show two towers.
    Certainly. What I meant when I said that Tower Two was not part of the package was that the contracts for units in Tower One do not require that Tower Two be built. Indeed, they are explicit about saying “If Tower Two is built, …” There are lots of details about sharing the parking garage, for instance. But financially and legally, these are separate buildings. Personally, I hope the second tower is built, because I think the pair will look nice, and now I may have to wait a while until that happens, but it wasn’t a critical factor in my decision to buy in the first tower.

  70. Posted by anoncensorious

    Put me down for Tower 2 not beginning until 2010.

  71. Posted by ex SF-er

    I agree with SkyGuy. I’ve read the contract (long ago) and it made no promise of Tower 2.
    That said, I do think that Tower 1 purchasers will be “shortchanged” if Tower 2 and the other nearby towers aren’t built. Not legally of course, but practically.
    A lot of the buyers are wooed by the potential future of the neighborhood, with multiple towers all around that will add the required density to make RH a standalone vibrant self-enclosed neighborhood. (a mini vancouver if you will)
    without ORH2 and some of the other towers I feel that the draw to Rincon Hill will be diminished.
    and I agree with whoever said that all Rincon Hillers and neighbors should try to band together… because if one/several projects fail then the entire neighborhood suffers. Isn’t it Jamie who is the RH neighborhood leader??? Hopefully he can bind ORH buyer and ORH lady and Infinity Buyer etc…
    I’m all for all the towers doing well, LOTS of them. SoMa and RH have the capability to add lots of housing units, sorely needed IMO.

  72. Posted by TypeA

    how does one get public information on the sale prices of each unit? I don’t see them published in Zillow or the like.

  73. Posted by anon

    “Certainly. What I meant when I said that Tower Two was not part of the package was that the contracts for units in Tower One do not require that Tower Two be built. Indeed, they are explicit about saying “If Tower Two is built, …” There are lots of details about sharing the parking garage, for instance. But financially and legally, these are separate buildings. Personally, I hope the second tower is built, because I think the pair will look nice, and now I may have to wait a while until that happens, but it wasn’t a critical factor in my decision to buy in the first tower.”
    The second tower surely looked like part of development to me. The second tower completes the development. Of course, the developer would not bind himself to building the second tower in the contracts for obvious reasons but I do not think anyone thought that only one tower was going to be built.

  74. Posted by anon

    “There’s no reason to suppose that the HOA fees will change at all; it’s not as if Tower Two would have been subsidizing the costs from Tower One. Frankly, I don’t understand the people who comment that buyers in Tower One are somehow being shortchanged by the delay or absence of Tower Two. That was never part of the package.”
    I would not be so sure. The garage and some of the common areas such as the pool and driveway are shared by the two towers. If tower two is not built, tower one will have to pay 100% of the costs to maintain these areas.

  75. Posted by anongapus

    “Re deposits, either side can challenge the 3% limit (buyer wants no forfeiture, seller wants more), but it gets complicated and expensive to do so. I’m curious as to how these walk-aways are ending up. Is ORH/Infinity/etc. trying to take more than 3%, or has any buyer successfully fought and gotten the entire deposit back? Or are both sides calling it even at 3%?”
    I walked away from my ORH contract due mainly to the poor quality of construction. The quality surely was not up to par with what a luxury building should be. It rivaled the quality of a 70s era apartment building with cheap upgrades. E.g. The moldings were not even sanded smooth and the balcony floor was finished with sand stuck in paint.
    And yes, they are trying to keep considerably more than 3% and it can be very expensive to fight it. The sales office has been quite nasty and they told me they intend to keep all of my deposit.

  76. Posted by happyiknfinitybuyer

    “My realtor told me that even if I wanted to sell my unit I’d be 20-30% below what I bought it for which would wipe out the 15% equity we had in our unit.”
    I don’t understand why this guy didn’t just give up his 3%. He didn’t consult his realtor until after he closed?
    If ORH and Infinity are so far underwater, wouldn’t it be better to forfeit the 3% deposit than put the unit up for rent?

  77. Posted by anon

    I don’t understand why this guy didn’t just give up his 3%. He didn’t consult his realtor until after he closed?
    suckeredbyinfinity is obviously a troll.

  78. Posted by happyattheinfinity

    Not sure you all care given everyone is caught up in hashing out: The competition of Infinity/ORH, sales numbers, drawbacks of the RE & Fin markets relative to purchasing in todays market, and in slinging caddy comments back & forth but if your interested in reading something positive for a change:
    We put a hold on an Infinity unit over a year ago, closed in July and could not be happier! Were we, have we been and are we worried about everything “bear” related – how could you not be after reading Socketsite, Curbed, CNN, Bloom, WSJ and tuning into Cooper daily… but having moved in recently my worries have subsided… this place really has been above par from day one, the service, the care and diligence of the team working here, we get follow up calls on everything (post move in so its not just a sales tactic) to make sure every little thing has been up to our expectations, the construction and detail work are top notch, and although I do agree the cabs are so minimal looking they only work for those that like that look it really is a small piece of what you buy here. Anyhow… this place feels good, good vibe, everyone we run into is nice, and the neighborhood is awesome, the air is fresh, your close enough to the fin district that you feel “city” but far enough away to feel like your in your own little residential hood, we see everything from suits to strollers given our close prox to the embarc, public transportation is close, driving – you dont run into freeway congestion although access to it is a sinch, Webcor has kept the place tidy and ongoing construction is not at all imposing, plus the weather is perfect in this locale! We plan on being here for some time, we bought a “home” not an investment although if it ends up being one great; so obviously we have a different perspective of what we qual as a good time to buy or not.. We locked in a rate just before the storm, and the only catch we ran into was the increase in down requred just before closing..
    but we were happy to still press forward.. (to this extent I will rec that buyers diligently check in with lenders / keep them on thier toes and if they say all is running smooth keep your nose in the middle of what is unfolding to avoid last minute snags) Also regarding closing… we see tons of lights on in the building, blinds up, also I keep asking about a few other units we are interested in (perhaps as a 2nd investment prop) that unfortunately are in contract, to see if they are being released and they are not. I have a hunch if the sales team were worried about these units falling through given these particular units went into contract almost a year ago thus should be scheduled to close soon – they would be letting on to the next interested buyer that something may be opening up.. again they are not.
    Hash on my friends.. I am going to finish sipping the glass of Veuve champagne I just poured, from the basket of treats left by the Infinity team on my counter at move in..

  79. Posted by Dude

    Who drinks champagne at 2PM on a Monday?

  80. Posted by Dan

    Dude, obviously you don’t live the Infinity dream!

  81. Posted by happyattheinfinity

    Dude – someone who decides to take a few days off after thier final shipment of furniture/etc. arrives, to stage and un-pack. Someone who plans ahead to take a few days off work knowing they would be very tired, would need a break, and would want to make a toast to future good times, good health and happiness in thier new home.

  82. Posted by ex SF-er

    well I’ll certainly be the first to say it:
    congrats on your new home. I raise my water glass in toast to you! (I unfortunately shouldn’t have champagne at work!)
    out of curiosity: how high did you have to go for your downpayment? My friends just closed and they had to go to 15% down (originally they thought they’d only need 5% down). so it was a short term crisis as they tried to get the cash.

  83. Posted by nickfinity

    I recently moved into the infinity and share the sentiments of happyattheinfinity. From the time of the deposit until the move-in, things were handled in a professional manner. I’m thrilled to live here and still feel like it’s a dream.
    For me, it’s about location first, then the view. It’s so exciting for me to live a mere block from the water and only a 5 minute walk to the ferry building, Embarcadero BART (and MUNI) station, lots of great restaurants, a grocery store…..
    I also like ORH and hope it does well since we’re all in this together. Not sure why so many get caught up in this fabricated competition.
    That dude you see with the big smile on his face running along the embarcadero may be me.

  84. Posted by happyattheinfinity

    Thank you & Congrats to your friends.
    We are an atypical, not good to use for a comp; small biz self employed so qual is a lot more stringent even in a decent economy. From what I have been hearing typ down these days is 15-20%; we landed around the high end of the spectrum.

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