A plugged-in tipster forwards a slightly enginerdy read (and we mean that in a good way) with respect to the performance-based seismic design (PSD) of Infinity and One Rincon Hill. Three little nuggets that caught our attention specific to One Rincon:
1. The temporary certificate of occupancy (TCO) for the first 20 floors was received on January 4, the TCO for the next seven is expected within the next couple of weeks;
2. The building will sway from east to west as the “wind whips around the building from south to north [and] creates a cross wind effect;” And,
3. Condo owners have been forewarned that construction is set to begin late next month [February] on the second tower.
And yes, nugget number three would seem to suggest no January groundbreaking for the “two and only” tower two (despite all the advertising).
∙ San Francisco’s 590-ft Skyscraper Lifts Seismic Design’s Stature [ENR]
∙ One Rincon Hill: An Official Update And A Few Confirmed Facts [SocketSite]
Yup. January becomes late Feb. Then in Feb it becomes late March. Then in march it becomes late April. And finally at some point they announce that they can’t get a construction loan and the second tower is cancelled.
diemos,
there is no way the second tower will be cancelled, nobody is going to give up >450ft of entitlements in SF. The tower may be delayed, or ownership may change, but it will get built.
Nah. They’ll wait to see how many flippers walk away from tower 1, how much they’ll have to discount to unload them (my guess: way more than 3%), and then will make a determination of what the schedule will be.
That’s a wildly profitable project. They bought a piece of land in a bad location for a song and then just glitzed it up with the “tallest tower west of the Mississippi” and got people to pay top dollar. They’ll come up with another angle to sell off tower two – they are very good at manipulating the public and I have every confidence in their ability to do it again.
They’ll probably just slow the construction schedule way down to match the demand. If they spend 3 years building it, they’ll probably do very well again.
I don’t get across the Bay Bridge much anymore, but I was struck the other day when I crossed it (first time in months) just how ugly the building is – and just how much it “unbalances” the San Francisco skyline. The bridge approach ramp is scary close too! But I’m guessing that the highway is going to be moved a bit as the bridge is reconfigured. Is that right?
Leaving aside the horrible location and the general fugliness of the building, something that I’ve wondered about as I watched it go up was how much it’s going to sway in the wind (let alone earthquakes). The building is slender, and exposed. I get vertigo just imagining the movement on the top floors during a heavy wind.
It has a pretty nifty system in place to dampen sway from the wind — a 50,000 gallon water tank that counteracts any sway by shifting water in the opposite direction. I believe certain skyscrapers in NY have similar systems in place. See:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/29/BA6CU35IM.DTL
Satchel, unfortunately you are mistaken. One Rincon Hill does not “unbalance” the skyline. When the second tower is done, and when the other towers on Rincon Hill are done, the skyline will look quite nice with another peak of highrises on the other side of SOMA.
People need to calm down and remember that ORH is only the FIRST highrise to be built. They will be, sooner or later, many more.
And yes, the freeway is going to be moved away from ORH.
No way the second tower won’t be built. Even if sales projections were weak the developer would be insane not to follow a Beacon-like strategy and rent the units for the first two years (especially considering where rents are now and where they are going – up)….and then evict everyone and sell the units when the market has rebounded.
Tipster, you evidently haven’t been “plugged in” to the ORH wait list on returned units. There’s no “waiting” to see who will walk away — those who can’t close escrow are already in process of either cancelling their reservations, or finding an alternative method through realtors and craigslist. They’ve slowly been handling it. And I must point out that the price that ORH is charging for cancelled units that go back on the market is not 3% less, but I’d guess about 10% higher — and they don’t appear to have difficulty selling them.
To Damion–I know you are much more plugged in to the rest of us but I am not sure where you are getting data that says they have had no difficulity selling units at 10% above. in fact they have sold exactly zero units and I heard from a sales person there they guess something like 25-30% of the units will come back on the market for sale. The # will probably be much higher later in the year when the higher floors come on line since those are more likely to have their financing fall through.
No flame, Micahael, but how is Satchel incorrect by stating his opinion that ORH does wrinkle the skyline?
Upon coming to the city on Saturday, my gf and I said the SAME exact thing.
That’s not to say it WILL EVENTUALLY even out, but as it stands currently, its a sore thumb. It stands off the side like an ugly step child in a family portrait.
Once the new skyline is eventually completed, no one will be the wiser but till then I feel his feelings are pretty accurate.
I wonder if you can feel the sway?
All the highrises sway… that’s no big deal.
but perceptible sway is different.
as example: You can feel the sway at the top of the CN tower. I don’t like it. I wouldn’t want to live up there.
it’s also the reason why most buildings don’t go above 1400ft (in terms of human occupancy) because people can’t tolerate it well.
I’m assuming that the ORH sway will be imperceptible to the residents.
I’ll tell you when I’m in it. (I have a few friends who bought in there, on higher floors)
I guess it would really depend on what you originally paid for the unit. I don’t have any inside info but from my personal notes I can tell you that prices are much higher than June 12 2006 (1st day they were selling).
Also some data from my clients that are buying there:
5405 Very Happy to Close (6/12/06 reserved)
5406 very Happy to Close (6/12/06 reserved)
5402 Very Happy to close (6/12/06 reserved)
5102 Very happy to close (6/12/06 reserved)
5002 very Happy to close (6/12/06 reserved)
4908 thinking about getting a partner
4901 Wants a unit higher and bigger
3901 Very happy to close (6/14/06 reserved)
3808 Very happy to close (6/12/06 reserved)
3801 very Happy to close (6/12/06 reserved)
3702 Very Excited to Close (6/12/06 reserved)
2604 very Happy to close
2404 considering getting a renter
2103 Circumstances have changed and did not wish to go forward, and I found a partner to immediately come in. (6/13/06 reserved)
1403 Closing Feb! Excited!
1204 Closing Deb! Excited, but a little stressed out.
If you paid $3k / ft , it may not close. If you paid $1000 / ft on a high level, it probably will.
That being said a few other people (who I did not initially represent) have contcted me who have reserved units at ORH looking for “partners”.
It’s capricious to make generalized statements about the entire building. It makes more sense to look at things case by case.
As far as the building being ugly and a bad location; Although I understand and sympathize with your paradigm, that rant has become slightly acerbic, boring and all of your arguments less compelling each time you use them.
Every building has its pluses and minuses, and the “ugly & desolate” arguments entirely miss the point of purchasing at One Rincon Hill: many units will have incredible views, that have very low probability of being obstructed in the future, at a very competitive price.
1204 Closing Feb (Sorry for the typo)
“Satchel, unfortunately you are mistaken. One Rincon Hill does not “unbalance” the skyline. When the second tower is done, and when the other towers on Rincon Hill are done, the skyline will look quite nice with another peak of highrises on the other side of SOMA.”
I would agree with Satchel as well. The building is a terrible eyesore to the whole SF skyline. That’s my opinion and seems most folks feel the same.
Also, has anyone notice construction on the Turnberry tower next to the gas station has been halted for several months now? Now the 2nd Rincon tower delayed till who knows how long? And the towers on Fremont St are in limbo.
It doesn’t take a genius to see One Rincon could be by it’s lonesome self for a long, long time…
“I’ll tell you when I’m in it. (I have a few friends who bought in there, on higher floors)”
If the active stabilization works then the maximum movement should be at the center (plucked string vibration mode) so we should see what the people on the middle floors think as well.
J, the second tower will begin construction shortly, so the skyline will continue to fill in.
Also, I go by ORH every week day and the demolotion and site prep activity for the tower across the street (375 Fremont) is going full speed ahead. And 45 Lansing is ready to go. So potentially that is a total of 3 additional towers that begin in 2008.
I will have to agree that the building looks ugly from outside.
However, you buy a home to live IN, not to stay in front of the building and stare at it all day.
Yes, the look is part of the decision. However, more importantly is how you feel inside.
American auto makers make the same mistake – Chrysler has made great looking cars for the last decade – with poor plastic interiors, and they wonder why people buy the boring Hondas and Toyotas.
I have no problem with any of these high rises. If people want to live there – great. I’m fascinated with the technology and I’m sure that buildings will be very safe in the event of an earthquake or windstorm that doesn’t exceed their design parameters.
Personally, I don’t want to live 50 stories above the ground. The technology is cool – but would you want 210 tons of water above head? That’s the weight of 100 cars. What if something went wrong with the damping mechanism and instead of damping the sway it reinforced it? I guess I’m just not a high rise guy.
I love Paul’s Key. All are marked:
“Very Happy to Close”
“Very Excited to Close”
“Closing February. Excited”.
As opposed to “Oh god, I have 5% of my money in this thing I hope the market improves enough so I can somehow get financing to fund it”. Exicting!!
If anyone is interested in transferring the following, I might be interested.
2806
3106
5106
5406
Shoot an email to jsbaustin@gmail.com. John.
Just curious, Cooper – what makes you think these people don’t have the means to ultimately finance their purchases? Why would Paul hide something or lie?
Right and I understand that it will continue to fill in. But as of right now, when I walk to work or drive in to the city it looks extremely out of place.
I turn around in my chair and I can see the Millennium going up and 555 Mission, as well, and for me personally until a building is finished its not an attractive sight.
Most of the contracts are financed, not cash buyers.
Cash buyers can close if they want to. Jumbo lines are a lot tougher to get these days if at all. Most all loans in ORH are jumbo lines.
“Jumbo lines are a lot tougher to get these days if at all.”
Not true. They have great rates on jumbos and if you have good credit they are just as easy to get as a conventional.
“Satchel, unfortunately you are mistaken. One Rincon Hill does not “unbalance” the skyline. When the second tower is done, and when the other towers on Rincon Hill are done, the skyline will look quite nice with another peak of highrises on the other side of SOMA.
People need to calm down and remember that ORH is only the FIRST highrise to be built. They will be, sooner or later, many more.
And yes, the freeway is going to be moved away from ORH.”
Michael,
While I agree completely with your statements, I would point out that trying to convince people like Satchel that they are mistaken about anything re: ORH is about as futile and urinating in the wind and expecting not to be hit. The people like Satchel who get on this sight and throw out completely gratuitous bashing comments (aside from the “the building is ugly” comment, which I can respect as an opinion only) just show up to stir the pot, and they usually succeed in getting someone’s goat (case in point above).
Evaluating the quality of the ORH project can only be done in the abstract right now, that is, are the units themselves (the finishings, the construction, etc), the common areas, and the HOA services of a high quality? That’s it right now.
Anything else is irrelevant RIGHT NOW because there are just too many unfinished moving pieces to ultimately know whether it will be a desirable place to live or not: the seismic retrofit project and related construction, the other residential developments planned for the area, the overall development of Transbay area (including the Folsom corridor).
This is a conversation that will have to be revisited in 2014 when most of the projects either underway or expected to be underway are expected to be completed.
The catch-22 of course is that by the time we know whether or not the 425 1st Street will or will not be a highly sought after residential address, it would likely be too expensive to purchase for most people (even compared to how expensive they are now) or, alternatively, it just wouldn’t matter because it would turn out to be another version of Bridgeview or the Metropolitan.
I guess whatever happens will depend on whether the other developers in the area steps up to the plate and finish their products. It’s true it’s too early to judge 1st and Harrison, in reality it’ll be 5 years + before we can make any assessment.
I am exciting at Infinity’s block though. Looks like the 2nd tower is about top off next month and the sidewalks and common areas look much better than I expected.
missionbayres. you don;t speak for most folks. you speak for a handful of driveling little debbie downer punks that chime into this blog and are affiliated with the infinity — just like you.
There’s no doubt that the developments on Rincon are in question right now. I’ve thought of buying in the 2nd tower (but not anymore) and have been waiting for some positive news that the 2nd tower will be built on time or the Turnberry tower is back on schedule, but nada. I’ve seen Turnberry’s work in Vegas and know they’re smart folks and do good work. If they are in fact halting construction, that’s bad news indeed. Whatever happens now I’ll put my money on Infinity. At least there’s no questions about their buildings.
ORH evokes lots of strong opinions, but they are OPINIONS, not facts–people aren’t going to be convinced one way or the other. If some people want to live right next to a freeway, that’s their choice. It’s not somewhere I’d want to live, and so by location alone I’d judge the project a failure.
“Whatever happens now I’ll put my money on Infinity. At least there’s no questions about their buildings.”
No questions aside from the fact that I’m wondering why anyone would find the units themselves appealing. I looked at both ORH and Infinity before buying and it was pretty much a no brainer based on the quality of the units themselves (finishings, layout, etc). To me, that was the great equalizer (I concede location to Infinity) between the two because I actually plan to live INSIDE my unit. It seems to me that most of the Infinity backers simply bash ORH based on location alone, and then tout the location of the Infinity (which they should), but in a way that makes it sound like they are going to live out in front of the building on the street rather than inside the building.
The units at the Infinity are horrid, plain and simple.
The units at the Infinity are horrid, plain and simple.
I also looked at both. Not sure why someone would think the layouts or the finishes are better at ORH. They actually seem pretty comparable to me. It’s all about location…
If I had to spend a million dollars for comparable units, location and establishment of the neighborhood always wins out. And I’m not picking on Rincon, just a generalization.
Also, the interior can always be upgraded easily. Unfortunately a buyer has little control over a poor location and I’ve never seen anyone *upgrade* a location 🙂
Sorry if I offended you grrrr, but unlike you, I won’t personally attack you with weird name calling (am I too young to know what a debbie downer is? hehe…)
Like many people stated time and time again, it’s just OPINION. No need to get personal. And it’s funny you mention Infinity, because I DIDN’T in my post. Do you work for One Rincon? 😉
I do know people that went into contract at Infinity so I’ve been to the sales office a few times and have seen the building. I’ve also been to Rincon a half dozen times and seen both of them constructed over the past 2 years. No offense to Rincon, but while they seem to be falling behind on their schedule, Infinity is actually ahead of schedule on their 2nd tower and they are almost robotic in their construction and in meeting deadlines so there’s a comfort in knowing they work that way.
If anyone is interested in transferring the following, I might be interested.
2806
3106
5106
5406
Shoot an email to jsbaustin@gmail.com. John.
Smart Man!….You are interested in the best floorplan in the building. I am 2806 and I cannot wait to move in!