Inventory of Active listed single family homes, condos, and TICs declined in San Francisco last week (down 2.9% since 10/16/06). The decrease marks the first such decline since Labor Day, and appears to be the result of both an uptick in new contracts (and withdrawn listings) combined with fewer new replacement listings (~156).
At the same time, both the number (418) and relative percentage (27.9%) of Active listings that have been “reduced” in San Francisco continued to rise.
∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 10/16/06 [SocketSite]
I’ll go out on a limb and make a prediction: inventory will continue to fall or be flat in 2006, as stale listings get pulled before the holidays, hoping to relist in spring 2007 (and get 2005 prices). But inventory will surge next year with lots of new condos hitting market. Plus, ’07 and ’08 will be big ARM adjustment years, prompting many to sell places they can’t afford under conventional terms. Just my prediction.
I totally agree. I’ve been watching the listings in my neighborhood. I’ve seen several homes withdrawn and relisted even within the last 6 months.
I’m starting to believe that SF isn’t going to get killed broadly. Inventory may rise; and condo’s might take a continued beating, but single family homes, and house like condo’s may just stagnate.
SF won’t fall hard unless GOOGle and other bubbly bay area stocks also take a big dive which would freeze up the VC system again.
Dude, I see where you’re going with the 07/08 year being a high refi year. Having worked in financial planning from ’02-’06, I noticed that most people refi’d last in around 04/05. Those people who took at 5/1 arm at that time would be due in 09/10.
My guess is that most people did the same as my clients did. On top of that, many people were aware of the potential rate hike and decided to do a 10/1 (flat yield curve made this attractive and still does) arm at that time so we may not see a refi problem til 14/15.
Regarding SaveYourMoney’s comment on VC inflows hurting the housing market, I think that may only be true in the SV area. Last time we had a really bad VC era was in around ’02ish, when the housing market started taking off in SF……just my opinions