1. From a local broker: “…out of the 13 units that I have represented buyers for at One Rincon Hill 12 are in contract with one that hasn’t signed yet (will probably fall apart.) Typically I expect about 30% of the reservations to withdraw before signing or during the contingency period of the contract for new construction.”
2. From a three year old San Francisco Business Times article concerning the demolition of the Bank of America clock tower in order to make way for One Rincon Hill: The developer “hopes to assuage any outcry at the demolition of the landmark by constructing a “Big Ben-type of clock … reminiscent of the clock tower,” at the top of the 35-story tower.” [There must not have been much outcry (or future residents are in for one heck of a “Big” surprise). Anyone up for a little photochopping fun?]
∙ Clock tower’s hour of doom [bizjournals]
The Bank of America clock tower was an eye sore.
It’s difficult to get a read on the broker’s comment. Is he subtly complimenting the quality of 1Rincon by saying that altough his experience is that 30% of reservations back out, his experience thus far has been about a 92% reservation to contract conversion rate?
I don’t think its very difficult at all to understand those comments. As a broker who has converted 9 out of 9 at Rincon, it’s pretty clear that they have an extemely low fallout rate compared w/ most projects of this type. I think that’s the market talking.
There’s probably a low fallout rate for those agents that were able to get buyers in within the first week or so. Those buyers got a great deal at $800-900/SqFt so they would be foolish to back out as those units are probably worth $1000+/SqFt now…
Having said that I’ve heard the fallout rate has increased as 1Rincon raised prices to the market rate…
Last I heard, 1Rincon has some 50+ units available and sales has slowed to a normal pace…
I’d agree that the overall “fallout rate” from the first week buyers is very low (10% or so from my experience and contacts) and that the fallout for later buyers is higher (30% est.). The fallout rate also depends on the unit–ex: there have been very few 02 units reserved in the first week that were placed back on the market. In comparison, the original sales at the Metropolitan had some units that got reserved and unreserved multiple times in a week! I concur that the sales pace at One Rincon and Infinity have slowed as relative price points increased to near market levels (or even beyond market price points IMHO for some units at the Infinity).