The average rate for a benchmark 30-year mortgage ticked up 6 basis points (0.06 percentage points) over the past week to 6.96 percent, which is 174 basis points higher than at the same time last year and 431 basis points higher than its all-time low in early 2021 but still below its long-term average of 7.74 percent.
At the same time, the probability of an easing by the end of the year remains at under 10 percent, with the probability of another rate hike at 25 percent and the yield on the 10-year treasury inching up, which is poised to push the benchmark mortgage rate back over 7 percent, with mortgage credit availability at a 10-year low and the Jumbo market contracting, none of which should catch any plugged-in readers, other than the most obstinate, by surprise.