The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area – which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula – ticked down another 1.8 percent this past December and is now 4.2 percent lower than at the end of 2021, representing the largest year-over-year drop for the index over a decade. In fact, the “San Francisco” index has actually dropped over 16 percent since last May and the decline is accelerating, none of which should catch any plugged-in readers, other than the most obstinate, by surprise.
At a more granular level, the index for the least expensive third of the Bay Area market ticked down 1.8 percent in December for a year-over-year decline of 4.7 percent; the index for the middle tier of the market ticked down 1.4 percent for a year-over-year drop of 3.9 percent; and the index for the top third of the market ticked down 2.0 percent for a year-over-year drop of 3.6 percent, as we projected.
The index for Bay Area condo values, which remains a leading indicator for the market as a whole, ticked down another 1.7 percent in December and was 4.6 percent lower than at the same time last year, having dropped 11 percent over the past seven months, versus year-over-year gains of 5.0 percent, 4.4 percent and 4.8 percent in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York, respectively.
At the same time, the national home price index only slipped 0.8 percent in December and remains “5.8 percent higher than at the same time last year,” with Miami, which remains 15.9 percent higher than at the same time last year, continuing to lead the way with respect to exuberantly indexed home price gains, followed by Tampa (up 13.9 percent) and Atlanta (up 10.4 percent), and the indexes for San Francisco and Seattle (down 1.8 percent) the only two major metropolitan areas having recorded year-over-year declines, but with an understated “cooling” across the board.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).