With the seasonally adjusted volume of applications for purchase mortgage loans across the U.S. having dropped 12 percent over the last two weeks of last year, purchase mortgage application volume was 42 percent lower at the end of 2022 than at the end of 2021.
And with applications to refinance down nearly 90 percent on a year-over-year basis, overall mortgage application volume ended 2022 at its lowest level since 1996, despite the benchmark 30-year rate having dropped back under 7 percent, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Not that surprising that a lot fewer people want to borrow at nearly 7% than wanted to borrow at 3%. I don’t see how this does not result in a recession. Around here, a lot of jobs are in home building and remodeling. Entire TV networks are dedicated to remodeling/fix-and-flip.
I mean a recession is the stated goal of the Fed and why they are increasing interest rates.
Agreed, but financial markets don’t seem to be fully discounting that probability.
Which financial markets would that be? You must be conflating every market with the stock market.
The U.S. bond market has been clearly signaling a recession for a while now, although we can still argue about how long that market thinks said recession will last.