The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area – which includes the East Bay, North Bay and Peninsula – ticked down another 1.6 percent in November. As such, the “San Francisco” index has dropped over 14 percent since last May. And as we projected, the index is now 1.6 percent lower than at the same time last year, representing the first year-over-year decline for the index since October of 2019 and the largest year-over-year drop in over a decade, and still trending down, none of which should catch any plugged-in readers by surprise.
At a more granular level, the index for the least expensive third of the Bay Area market ticked down 1.9 percent in November for a year-over-year decline of 2.6 percent; the index for the middle tier of the market ticked down 1.2 percent for a year-over-year drop of 1.4 percent; and the index for the top third of the market ticked down 1.3 percent for a year-over-year drop of 1.2 percent, as we projected.
At the same time, the index for Bay Area condo values, which had already dropped on a year-over-year basis and remains a leading indicator for the market as a whole, ticked down another 1.7 percent in November and was 2.9 percent lower than at the same time last year (versus year-over-year gains of 6.3 percent, 5.2 percent and 5.1 percent in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York respectively).
The national home price index slipped 0.6 percent in November but remains 7.7 percent higher than at the same time last year, with Miami, which remains 18.4 percent higher than at the same time last year, continuing to lead the way with respect to exuberantly indexed home price gains, followed by Tampa (up 16.9 percent) and now Atlanta (up 12.7 percent), and the indexes for San Francisco and Las Vegas (down 1.8 percent), followed by Phoenix (down 1.6 percent), having dropped more than any other major metropolitan areas.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).