Having dropped 4.9 percent in March, the seasonally adjusted pace of existing-home sales across the U.S. slipped another 0.4 percent in April to an annual rate of 5.19 million transactions, which is 4.4 percent below the pace as measured at the same time last year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
At the same time, the inventory of existing homes on the market rose by 9.6 percent to 1.83 million homes, which is 1.7 percent higher versus the same time last year (versus 2 percent lower in San Francisco).
Out West, the pace of existing-home sales increased by 1.8 percent last month to an annual rate of 1.11 million sales but remains 5.9 percent lower on a year-over-year basis with a median sale price of $395,100, which is 1.7 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, down from a 3.1 percent year-over-year gain in March and versus a 3.6 percent gain nationally.
And of course, the pace of sales in San Francisco has dropped as well.
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Interesting graph.
It helps to understand that the median sale price is seasonal, especially when looking at a one year graph (which hides that fact that the year-over-year gain, which was over 5 percent at the same time last year, versus 3.6 percent last month, has actually been trending down).
Check out San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara.
The long term data is indeed interesting.
It looks like home sales shot up from 2000-2005 in the last cycle. Then dropped from 2005-2009. Shot up again from 2011-2017 and are now dropping again. History repeating?
So what are we supposed to get from these report cards? That SF is following the trend of the rest of the country, or that – with ~.33% of the population but only .036% of the available inventory …yes one-tenth of average! – it’s an outlier? Heck, let’s not sugar coat it: even allowing for a predictably higher-than-average percent of renters, it’s an out-and-out freak.