With an additional 32,194 mail-in ballots having now been tallied and added to the Election Day count, which, in total, now accounts for 186,484 (38.69 percent) of roughly 480,000 potential votes, Mark Leno’s lead over London Breed in San Francisco’s mayoral race has narrowed to 144 with an estimated 65,000 ballots remaining to be processed.

The accounting for the latest ranked-choice results are outlined in the table above with the current tallies for the top four vote getters, including first choice votes, below:

1. London Breed 36.10% of first choice votes (49.96% based on ranked choice result tallies)
2. Mark Leno 25.62% (50.04% based on ranked choice results)
3. Jane Kim 23.06% (CONCEDED)
4. Angela Alioto 7.27%

And if the trend for the batch of 19,474 ballots processed over the past 24 hours holds for the 65,000 waiting to be tallied, London Breed would pass Mark Leno and become the next Mayor of San Francisco by a margin of less than 300 votes (0.09 percent of all ballots cast).

UPDATE (6/9): London Breed Takes the Lead in SF Mayoral Race

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by landline

    What happens if it ends in a tie? Does Willie Brown get to pick his most favored favorite?

    • Posted by Notcom

      Neck, bow or bolo? Oh, maybe that wasn’t what you meant: there is a precedent, sort of…tho I don’t know if the same method would be used here.

    • Posted by John

      It is rare. But it does happen. Once the results are certified either candidate has five days to demand a recount. The candidate demanding a recount must reimburse the government for labor costs if they end up losing. If there is no recount or a recount results in another tie, the election officer will meet with both candidates and decide the winner “by lot” (a game of chance).

  2. Posted by Mark F.

    Leno’s campaign is claiming most of the latest ballots that were counted recently are coming from the areas where Breed ran strongest, so the “trend” may not hold as more votes are tallied.

    • Posted by SocketSite

      That was certainly the case with the 8,000 ballots which were tallied yesterday, closing the gap from 1,121 to 255.

      But of the 19,000 ballots tallied over the past 24 hours, there was a 1.14 percent advantage for Breed. And while small, a 1.14 percent advantage with 65,000 ballots left to be tallied would put Breed ahead in the end.

      UPDATE: While Breed would win by an overall margin of 0.09 percent of all votes if today’s ballot counting trend held, Breed’s advantage in the votes tallied over the past 24 hours was 1.14 percent, as since corrected above.

      • Posted by excuse me while i kiss the burrito

        ^ Unless the missing votes yesterday turn up in another day’s count, as the Leno argument seems to imply. In that case, they’re just set to be counted later, which means that he could gain some votes back.

        But yeah, if this is the trend on mail-ins, for sure, it’s curtains for Leno.

  3. Posted by Sculpey

    Ooof, 65,000 to go. Are they working the weekend? This is going to take a while.

    • Posted by Sabbie

      The global epicenter of high technology takes two weeks to count votes.

      • Posted by Dave

        But for the fact that SF is not the center though boosters spread that “fake” news. It is SJ, MV the SV that is the center. And Oakland to an extent. SF is a lucky nearby city living off the fruits of what was born and bred in the SV. Am I allowed to say that? Is it politically correct? The Emperor has no clothes.

        • Posted by Notcom

          And SV – i.e. SJ and MV – was lucky ole Leland was a homebody and had his “farm” in Palo Alto. If he’d had it in – say – Folsom, Silicon Valley would be bigger, hotter, and about a hundred-and-fifty miles northeast of where it is.

        • Posted by bob tobb

          I don’t think it’s deniable that Palo Alto, Mountain View, and Santa Clara are the heart of Silicon Valley, but saying that SF has no part in it (and that Oakland does!) is a little disingenuous.

          • Posted by Dave

            The Oakland reference was meant as a tweak to the uber San Francisco-centric faction. Truly, the economic driver of the Bay Area has been and is the Silicon Valley. San Francisco and other cities in the region have benefitted from spillover from the SV.

        • Posted by SFRealist

          But we could test this. Let’s see how many tech jobs on LinkedIn are in SF and how many are in Oakland.

          • Posted by SFRealist

            Or there’s this list. I count 9 (Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Coinbase, The RealReal, Pinterist, Stripe, GitHub, SoFi) in San Francisco. Not too bad for having no clothes!

          • Posted by Dave

            @SFRealist – guess you didn’t notice the virtual wink and nod emoji in my comment.

          • Posted by SFRealist

            My mistake! I thought you were seriously disputing that SF was the global center of technology. If you were kidding, then you’re right, I didn’t catch it.

          • Posted by Dave

            No, I was saying and do say that the SV is the global technology center and that SF has benefited from the spillover from the SV. Though SV’s position as the center is slowly eroding.

          • Posted by SFRealist

            That was true fifteen years ago. The center now is roughly equally shared by SF and SV. The exact percentage isn’t really important, though, for the purposes of SF real estate, as the continuing growth of the tech economy props up housing prices here.

      • Posted by Notcom

        It used to take a month…so tech HAS made a difference.

  4. Posted by hopeman

    As a San Francisco native, and someone who knows Mark, I’ve got to say that he will be much more effective for The City than London. Like it or not, Mark has the experience and the support of most of the various factions in this town. The City is crumbling, and this is no time for amateurs.

    • Posted by frozentoast

      “The City is crumbling”. This interesting take made me think. I guess it depends on what tribe you’re in since for many the City is booming while others are being pushed (priced) out. With any change there are winners and losers it’s just life.

      • Posted by anon2

        Well, maybe “The City Government is crumbling” It really seems that all the booming going on is due to private sector activity. And giving the booming transfer taxes and influx of high income residents, the progress (or regress) on homelessness, street filth, transit and schools has been “Unimpressive” to put it mildly. Uber & Lyft have their issues and faults, but they have revolutionized transit far far more then the city in recent years.

    • Posted by Ohlone Californio

      F is so ropy though.

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