The inventory of unsold homes listed for sale in San Francisco ticked up to just under 600 over the past week and is running 39 percent higher versus the same time last year, the greatest year-over-year increase we’ve recorded since 2010.

The overall inventory level is the highest since 2012 for this time of the year and the percentage of properties on the market listed for under a million dollars has ticked up two points over the past week to 41 percent (up four points to 36 percent for single-family homes).

At a more granular level, the number of listed single-family homes on the market (225) is now running 30 percent higher on a year-over-year basis while the number of listed condos (368), which doesn’t include the vast majority of new construction units on the market in the San Francisco, is 44 percent higher versus the same time last year.

And having held under 13 percent since the beginning of the year, the percentage of listings for which the asking price has been reduced at least once has ticked up to 15 percent, four points higher versus the same time last year and 76 percent higher in terms of the number of reduced listings.

Recent Articles

Comments from “Plugged-In” Readers

  1. Posted by sfdragonboy

    When the asking price is overstated, is there really any discounting going on?

    • Posted by SFRealist

      Exactly. What matters is not sale price compared with asking, but sale price compared with the last time it was sold.

      • Posted by anon

        That’s Case-Shiler right? Some people tend to disparage that measure as well when it doesn’t show what they want.

    • Posted by hgh

      Don’t ruin it. People want to pretend these indicate cracks in the market so all their friends can afford to move to the new SF. Absurd.

    • Posted by anon

      If properties get snapped up over asking right away, then there is no reduction in list price.

  2. Posted by two beers

    Nice tautology, dragonboy, and spin to boot. By that faulty logic, anything that needs to be discounted is overstated, et voila, there’s never any real discounting, a sweet dream undisturbed by annoying bubbles.

    Some houses are priced for a quick sale, others are priced to generate a bidding war, and still others are priced to test the market. Houses are not fungible and ceteris is never paribus, so what makes a price “overstated” is subjective to an outside viewer.

    • Posted by SFrentier

      Good answer. You’d make a fantastic realtor(TM)!

  3. Posted by slpymnky

    From my casual observation, it seems that the sub-million dollar properties are largely in the outer parts of the city – Outer Sunset/Richmond, Outer Mission, Bernal Heights etc.

    I haven’t done extensive research, but from what I’ve seen condos in central parts of the city continue to sell for a good bit over asking.

    • Posted by moto mayhem

      in the inner richmond, prices are still rising at a nice clip and nothing is on the market than for more than a few weeks

      • Posted by johny

        The inner Richmond is sooo sleepy. Few if any cafe’s /street life. Its a whole of garages facing streets and concrete driveways on Anza, Balboa and Cabrillo. No gym in that hood either. Is it really different/ more desirable than the Outer Richmond?

        • Posted by moto mayhem

          On the other side of geary, I would argue the street life is as good as any neighborhood. Many cafes, restaurants, bars, boutiques on clement and on california, especially arguello through 8th. the weather is also much better than outer sunset. the prices north of geary, between argueloo and 8th now 1000/psf and several homes have sold recently for $2+M. Very differnt from outer richmond

        • Posted by Fishchum

          Yes, it is. And if you think it’s “too sleepy”, you haven’t been down Clement between Arguello and Park Presidio in a while.

          • Posted by slpymnky

            Agree. The Inner Richmond has a ton of great stuff + is between two parks. I’d love to live there but have been priced out.

          • Posted by ess

            past 25th or so it’s a desert

        • Posted by AnonAnon

          “past 25th or so it’s a desert”

          Past 25th is Outer Richmond, not Inner. Sleepier, but there are a ton of places on Balboa after 25th almost to the Ocean Beach. Its not your typically Marina fare, but there are lots of restaurants and shops..

  4. Posted by JR "Bob" Dobbs

    On the other side of the supply-demand equation, MLS sales volume seems to have been pretty brisk in March – up 40% for SFRs over 2015, and up 13% for condos. Rising supply will dampen prices but only if sales don’t rise to match. At least for now, I’m certainly not seeing any noticeable price declines, although the condo market may be getting close. The editor has his eye on it (at least half of it). A big caveat in that I really only keep a casual eye on my neighborhood and the immediate surroundings.

    • Posted by SocketSite

      As always, our inventory numbers take into account demand as we don’t simply report the number of new listings, but rather the net change in inventory: existing supply, plus new listings, less new sales (which, of course, we track as well).

      And in fact, we even account for pending sales and new contracts, not simply those which have closed.

      • Posted by JR "Bob" Dobbs

        But the inventory number you show would not indicate whether sales were 10/month or 100/month or 1000/month – all of which would give very different pictures of the market. A unit might no longer be included as inventory because it was sold or because it was withdrawn without a sale. One needs to know both inventory and sales rates.

        • Posted by SocketSite

          That’s very true, so it’s a good thing we report sales too!

          • Posted by JR "Bob" Dobbs

            Yes, you report MLS listings, but all sales (MLS and not). You also report Case Shiller. And you also report on apple-to-apple sales. That’s all fine, of course. I’m just saying that reporting both MLS inventory and MLS sales is another piece that gives a pretty good picture of things, over time.

  5. Posted by Frank C.

    Anecdotal, but an agent I talked to at an open house in Palo Alto said that inventory in PA was significantly up, yet it wasn’t up in other nearby hot peninsula towns.

    Could it be that at the top-end, more sellers in places like SF proper and Palo are watching this stuff like hawks, ahead of the curve in sensing a top and trying to cash out?

    • Posted by Confused renter

      It all comes down to liquidity. Topend buyers have more cash tied up in US stock market and Chinese economy, which had a rough q1.

  6. Posted by San Francisco

    What is a granular level?

    • Posted by Serge

      On a more “detailed” level. Imagine looking at a sandbox, you get a broad view. But if you look at individual grains, you get to see more detail.

Add a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *