While we had estimated 40,000 or so mail-in and provisional ballots had yet to be counted after the early results were released on Election Day, the actual number appears to be closer to 50,000, or around 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The uncounted votes could theoretically swing the outcome for a couple of relatively close initiatives, including Measure F to restrict short-term rentals and Airbnb activities in the city, and Measure A, the City’s Affordable Housing Bond.

That being said, with the first 8,684 of those 50,000 additional ballots having already been added to the tallies, as we reported yesterday afternoon, neither the outcome nor the margins for any of the early election results have significantly changed.

In order for the outcome of Measure F to change, roughly 68 percent of the uncounted ballots would have to be marked YES, versus 45 percent of the 142,000 ballots which have been counted and marked YES so far.

In order for the outcome of Measure A to change, roughly 43 percent of the uncounted ballots would have to be marked NO, versus 27 percent of the 142,000 ballots which have been counted and marked NO so far.

And in order for the outcome of Measure I, the Mission Moratorium, to change, roughly 76 percent of the uncounted ballots would have to be marked YES, versus 42 percent of the 142,000 ballots which have been counted and marked YES so far.

UPDATE: Another 14,729 mail-in ballots have been counted and all results, and for the most part all margins of victory, remain the same.

In order for the outcome of Measure F to change, roughly 84 percent of the uncounted ballots would have to be marked YES, versus 46 percent of the 157,000 ballots which have been counted and marked YES so far.

In order for the outcome of Measure A to change, roughly 77 percent of the uncounted ballots would have to be marked NO, versus 26 percent of the 157,000 ballots which have been counted and marked NO so far.

And in order for the outcome of Measure I to change, roughly 95 percent of the uncounted ballots would have to be marked YES, versus 42 percent of the 153,000 ballots which have been counted and marked YES so far.

UPDATE (11/6): Another 16,478 mail-in ballots have been counted. Once again, none of the of the early results have changed. And while the results haven’t officially been certified, it’s now mathematically impossible for any of the outcomes above to change.

UPDATE (11/9): Another 9,087 mail-in ballots have been counted.  And while the margins remain the same, the voter turnout is now officially (just) over 40 percent.

Comments from “Plugged-In” Readers

  1. Posted by moto mayhem

    if you assume more moderate voters mail in, then A might actually be on the bubble

    • Posted by curmudgeon

      doubtful. The bulk of mail in votes were counted first, and should be the most “conservative” batch. The ones they are counting now were mailed in late in the process, were hand delivered to polling sites, or were provisional ballots at polling places. Those shouldn’t be that different from actual polling place votes.

  2. Posted by Paul F

    Seems to me that the voters of San Francisco generally took the most sane route. I am surprised that F was so close, however.

  3. Posted by eddy

    Statistics would generally indicate that the current recorded outcomes will hold true.

    • Posted by Serge

      Yep, the sample size is just too large. Unless of course the vast majority of mail-in ballots tend to lean one particular way.

      • Posted by SocketSite

        A vast majority would not be required to swing a couple of the results, as we outlined above. What would be required, however, is a significant deviation in the voting pattern from the early count.

  4. Posted by Dave

    I’m surprised at the margin for D.

    Then again, given virtually all TPTB supported this and the money spent on it (at the end I was getting a flyer in the mailer every other day), maybe not so surprising.

    Ironically, the Giants could have probably lowered the max height from 35 stories was it (?) to 30 instead of 23 or whatever it is now and it still would have passed.

    It was marketed effectively as BMR housing and green space. Never did a flyer I received show the maximum height towers.

    Developers would face less opposition from the community if they paid more attention to BMR, exceed the mandated limit as did the Giants, and open space IMO..

  5. Posted by SocketSite

    UPDATE: Another 14,729 mail-in ballots have been counted and all results, and for the most part, margins of victory, remain the same. See updated math above for what it would take for the outcome of Measures A, F and I to change. In the eyes of Lloyd Christmas, there’s still a chance.

    • Posted by Rainer Wilke

      Its over and done with. What race exactly are you holding out hope for?

  6. Posted by SocketSite

    UPDATE: Another 16,478 mail-in ballots have been counted. Once again, none of the of the early results have changed. And while the results haven’t officially been certified, it’s now mathematically impossible for any of the outcomes above to change.

  7. Posted by SocketSite

    UPDATE (11/9): Another 9,087 mail-in ballots have been counted.  And while the margins remain the same, the voter turnout is now officially (just) over 40 percent.

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