Having ticked up 0.6 percent in July, and gained 59 percent since January 2010, the Case-Shiller Index for single-family home values within the San Francisco Metropolitan Area is within 1.2 percent of its 2006 peak and 10.4 percent higher versus the same time last year.
That being said, while the index for the bottom third of the market gained 1.0 percent in July (up 11.2 percent year-over-year), and the index for middle third of the market gained 0.9 percent (up 11.7 percent year-over-year), the index for the top third of the market was unchanged for the second month in a row but remains 9.8 percent higher versus the same time last year.
According to the index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have more than doubled since 2009 and are back to October 2004 levels (21 percent below an August 2006 peak); the middle third is back to July 2005 levels (2 percent below a May 2006 peak); and home values for the top third of the market remain at the all-time high recorded in May (13.7 percent above the previous peak reached in August of 2007).
Having slipped 0.5 percent in June, San Francisco condo values ticked up 0.7 percent in July to a new all-time high, up 12.0 percent year-over-year and 15.4 percent higher than in October of 2005, the peak of the previous cycle.
The index for home prices across the nation gained 0.7 percent in July and is running 4.7 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, but remains 5.2 percent below a July 2006 peak.
The long-term average annual home price appreciation for San Francisco measured 4.2 percent in 2006, at which point the city was deemed “bubble-proof,” in part due to the inability to build on large swaths of underdeveloped land, such as Treasure Island.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).