1803 Castro Dinning
Six months ago a plugged-in “realist” raised the ire and eyebrows of a few by predicting the newly expanded and renovated Noe Valley home at 1803 Castro would sell “for about” $2.1 million having been listed for $2,600,000 ($765 per square foot).
Following a number of reductions and officially “off the market” according to the MLS, last week the sale of 1803 Castro quietly closed escrow with a reported contract price of $2,110,000 ($621 per square foot). Call it 18.9 percent under its original list price but within 0.5 percent of our reader’s prediction.
∙ 1803 Castro Returns Four Times Its 2005 Size (And Price) [SocketSite]

9 thoughts on “A Plugged-In Realist’s Prediction Missed It By That Much…”
  1. Yeah, a real fire sale. They’re giving ’em away.
    [Editor’s Note: That’s funny, but the developer might actually agree.]

  2. Seems about in line with a nice place just outside the “Mothers Milk” part of Noe*
    *heard someone recently refer to the mostly flat, carriage trafficked corridor between 23rd-26th (ie 3-6) and Dolores-Douglass (ie D-D)…or 36DD…as the “Mothers Milk” part of Noe :]

  3. If the listing agent had priced this more realistically at appx $2.0-2.2 million, then the place might have sold more quickly, and the seller wouldn’t have incurred the added loss of over half a year’s carrying cost.
    It might have even sold for “More than asking…”

  4. “[Editor’s Note: That’s funny, but the developer might actually agree.]”
    I don’t think the term “developer” fits here. They kept it for quite a while.

  5. “If the listing agent had priced this more realistically at appx $2.0-2.2 million, then the place might have sold more quickly, and the seller wouldn’t have incurred the added loss of over half a year’s carrying cost.”
    In cases like this one why assume that the pricing was realtor driven? They know the market far better than sellers do. This looks like seller-driven pricing all the way.

  6. [anon.ed] – Why do you think this was “seller driver pricing all the way?”
    Does the listing agent have a history of setting price reasonably or over-inflating?

  7. “raised the ire and eyebrows” — Really?
    “officially off the market …. quietly closed escrow” — pulled end of year on 12/29 and closed 3 weeks later and MLS listing properly updated.
    And did we ever verify that this was a developer flip or a family renovation that was lived in?
    Anyway, the embellished tone is tiresome. We get it.

  8. @DataDude,
    Kinda. I’ve seen some misses but that wasn’t what happened here. This property was a developer’s own primary residence. Did you see it? Its challenges at the initial price range were pretty obvious.

  9. @ Eddy,
    Yeah. Look at it the other way. We don’t see too many threads with “Whoa nellie get a load of how badly a plugged-in reader got this one wrong! bzzz, nope, wrong-o, kazoomy!” Now do we? Of course not. Because Spencer alone could have an entire blog devoted to threads like that.

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