Having ticked down from April to August, preforeclosure activity in San Francisco has jumped 19 percent since, with 651 properties in the preforeclosure pipeline versus 549 two months ago, nearing the 660 mark we recorded in April and 8 percent higher than the 605 we recorded in January.
While up 9 percent in real estate Districts 1 through 9, the bulk of the net new preforeclosure activity has been in District 10*, up 32 percent over the past two months and representing 38 percent of pre-foreclosure activity in San Francisco, up from 34 percent in January.
Naturally following the mid-year dip in preforeclosure activity, the number of scheduled auctions in San Francisco has fallen to 581, down 16 percent over the past two months, having dropped 28 percent in District 10 which now represents 41 percent of the scheduled auctions in San Francisco, the lowest percentage we’ve recorded all year.
Editor’s Note: In an attempt to match and map two disparate data sets, we include 94124, 94134 and 94112 in “District 10,” which results in a slightly larger area than the District as defined by the San Francisco Association of Realtors.
∙ Scheduled Auctions Flat As Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Down [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Association Of Realtors New Neighborhood Map [SocketSite]
EBGuy from another thread:
HSBC now says they are seeing a big uptick in US residents not paying their mortgages
“Don’t 1099 Me, Bro” (aka The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act) expires at the end of 2012. Whodathunkit?
***
I expect that the “Don’t 1099 me bro” act will be extended. Also did we ever resolve the question of if non-recourse purchase money loans in California even generate a 1099?
If you stopped paying your mortgage today, there is no way the foreclosure would hit before the end of 2012.
My friends haven’t made one payment since 2008. No foreclosure scheduled.
The only hope for meeting that deadline is a short sale, and that would be cutting it close.
If you stopped paying your mortgage today, there is no way the foreclosure would hit before the end of 2012.
There you go again with your utter nonsense. You simply can’t just say blanket stuff like that. The reality is that timeframes will vary from bank to bank.
tipster wrote:
> If you stopped paying your mortgage
> today, there is no way the foreclosure
> would hit before the end of 2012.
Then [anon.ed] wrote:
> There you go again with your utter
> nonsense. You simply can’t just say
> blanket stuff like that. The reality
> is that timeframes will vary from
> bank to bank.
tipster is more bearish than most, but saying that a person who stopped making payments today would not have a forclosure “hit before the end of 2012” is not “utter nonsense”. I spent the mid 90’s buying bad loans (and REO property) and I’ve been through the forclosure process many times. Very few lenders even file a NOD until a loan is 90 days late, so that will put us well in to 2012. I would be interested to see if [anon.ed] can give the address of even one (1) property in Northern California that has sold on the courthouse steps in less than one year from the first missed payment.
FormerAptBroker, you should have qualified your challenge with the proviso that the property sold before 2004, when proper bank due diligence went out the window.
Might vary by bank, but very unlikely to be less than a year.
By then anyone who bought Groupon stock will be a millionaire! I used my downpayment money and bought a 10,000 shares at 31 on their first day. Down to 23 today, so I’ve only lost $80,000, down a mere 25%.
Fortunately, real estate prices are sinking just as fast as tech stocks: 88 King #816, spacious, with parking, storage and a bay view just sold for $100,000 under its 2003 price. The owner has been paying about $3000 per month over the market value of rent for the last 8 years. That, plus the loss and the commissions and taxes etc. mean they are down about $425K over renting on a reasonable hold, and they even bought before the bubble. Groupon-style deals for anyone who can wait.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/88-King-St-94107/unit-816/home/12397354
I can’t wait for the Zygna IPO. Should be another zinger.
@Rillion, IANAL, but my gut says that “Don’t 1099 Me Bro” will have a minimal impact in non-recourse states like CA. Directly from the IRS link: Forgiveness of a non-recourse loan resulting from a foreclosure does not result in cancellation of debt income (which means no 1099 is issued on purchase money loans).
I spent the mid 90’s buying bad loans (and REO property) and I’ve been through the forclosure process many times. Very few lenders even file a NOD until a loan is 90 days late, so that will put us well in to 2012. I would be interested to see if [anon.ed] can give the address of even one (1) property in Northern California that has sold on the courthouse steps in less than one year from the first missed payment.
Sure you did.
You’re not even using accurate language, as usual. “1 year to courthouse steps” ? Tipster said now till throughout all of ’12, so 14 months or more. You’re saying one year + steps? and the point was “foreclosure before ’12 is over.” Go mow your parents’ properties’ lawns, dude. Stop bothering me. You’re a hack who gets things way too wrong way too often to have had the career you tout.
We are all grown-ups….right? enough with the BS and pissy attitudes on both sides.
its sunny, we live in the Bay Area, no “big one” earthquake has followed up *yet* from the latest Hayward rattling. We don’t live in Greece or Italy. Life is practically perfect.
[anon.ed] wrote:
> You’re a hack who gets things way too
> wrong way too often to have had the
> career you tout.
Yet can not even give one (1) example of a foreclosue that happened in less than 12 months?
P.S. “If you stopped paying your mortgage today” as tipster said your next payment would be due on December 1st, late on the 5th, so “before ’12 is over would be 1 yr + 26 days after missed payment.
uh huh. “Less than 12 months.” Again. As if that’s what I said while challenging Tipster’s “no chance of any foreclosure within 14 months because my friends had it happen this way” point. No. I said different banks have different foreclosure response times. Sure I could rattle off some individual cases. But I won’t, because they’re people who don’t need the likes of non-actors such as you blathering on incorrectly about their personal fincancial lives.
Fine. Here’s one, that meets the altered metric that “Former Apartment Broker, Current Groundskeeper” set. 869 North Point.
[Editor’s Note: The first default date for 869 North Point was 3/20/09 while the foreclosure sale was 12/15/10, a span of roughly 21 months. (And let’s watch the name calling.)]
Tough crowd. In any case, editor, what is the source of this data? Just curious.
[Editor’s Note: Our queries of a foreclosure records database.]
Oh, I see. “First default” is inserted now. Really, Ed. Jumping in, like that? With these guys? Please.
That was off the top of my head, and based upon a rather fast track to auction sale rom “short sale” terminology in the MLS. OK, guess that one was wrong. I can think of a few others off the top of my head. Shall I throw them up on here, so that the editor can hold me to higher scrutiny than the daily ravings of his four or five faithful trolls?
Naaah. Think I’ll pass. OK. Tipster is correct, Ed. Have it your way. Nobody who decides not to pay right now will be foreclosed upon in calendar 2012.
There. The message is across, loud and clear. Great job.
Foreclosure activity is good for the market. The sooner we weed out the bad apples the better.
Personally, I think Zynga will be a monster IPO.
Only flujio will get nailed to the wall on something like that and blame the people who called him out for getting it wrong. Dude, you’re the one who screwed up. 🙂
I believe available statistics show that foreclosures in California take an average longer than 300 days. Not sure what SF-specific statistics are. Apparently BofA has averaged longer than 1 year, and they’ve started a lot more foreclosure proceedings lately after their self-created moratorium. Based on the available numbers, the estimate above isn’t terrible. Obviously individual cases may deviate from the average.
I second grownup’s comments. The pettiness on here really calls for an “ignore” or vote down function. Would male for a much more interesting discussion
Tipster and [anon.ed] seem like the biggest violators, but all could “dial it down” a notch.
And yes, i probably just sparkeda nother few rounds of pettiness! 😉
Eddy–what do you mean by monster IPO? What’s your reasoning?
“Dude, you’re the one who screwed up. :)”
I’m not really on here that much, so whatever.
Anyway, actually, I didn’t. Now I remember. The story is more complex. They gamed one reduced rate intentionally and then had their circumstances change, and got foreclosed upon a second time, rather quickly.
Whatever tho. I don’t care. 14 months it is. For those of you with foreclosure tools, like the editor, ignore the dozens of ~150 – ~300 day foreclosures you see. Was that the message? Sorry for misrepresenting it, after the 14 months challenge, after the “prove to me 1 year” hijack, after the top of my head take. My bad.
Zynga is a real company with real revenues and huge profits. Impressive growth. So I think the IPO will be successful and may buck the trend of Tipsters “pick the highest peak on day 1 and mock losses” game.
zynga has decent revenues but lousy (and shrinking) profits. Nevertheless, unless the stock market cliff-diving continues, I also think its IPO will be strong. It should create fabulous wealth for a small number of people. And it won’t create a material increase in demand for SF housing regardless.
@eddy:
zynga will not be a monster ipo.
i’m afraid your thinking is wishful or maybe magical
sorry, but lux real estate prices aint going up. there is no demand, except for about 200 yards east to west on broadway.
@johnny, neither you or I can predict how the zynga ipo will fare, or if it will even float; so pretending you know the outcome is a joke. I stated my opinion so no need to be afraid of my wishful or magical thinking; but thank you for the compliment. And the fate of zyngas ipo has no bearing on lux real estate and I don’t think I ever indicated as much. I do think that we’re seeing ipos at all is a good economic indicator. And I’ve gone on record many times that I think we’re in a 5 year slide with some minor ups / downs based on the overall economic climate. Top end projects will continue sell for premiums, peak apples will show the appropriate losses and life will go on in the world. People buying average homes today at average prices are most likely not going to suffer the -25% decreases. And this has nothing to do with tech ipos. And for the record I was a bear in 2006 when the market rose for the next 24+ months and peaked / dropped; and I’m not a bull today either despite continuing to be blown away by the strength of the top end. I’m more moderate on real estate presently as I think there are deals to be had for traditional buyers with long term stability that strike good deals. you can build equity over time and the RvB, while still in favor of renting over the short term, can make sense for a long term buyer — even at the upper ranges of homes here in sf. again, all opinion so no need to get all worked up.
Have a good day.
Amusing speech, but trying to portray $12.5M in profit (Down 54% YoY) as “huge profits” is either deception or ignorance.
interesting comments, eddy. I’m not sure I agree about zynga, but then again I do love some of their games (play em for free, though)!
BTW, might I ask what you do for a living?
@tc_sf, i gave an opinion. do you have one? And talk about deception or ignorance, Zynga has 12.5m of profit in the third quarter, on revenues of 307m (+80%) in 3q 2011. I could give a speech on multiplication (1q x 4 = 1Y) and multiples but you’d only be amused.
@dontgetit, sure.
“And talk about deception or ignorance, Zynga has 12.5m of profit in the third quarter,”
Multiplying x4 would be amusing, but it doesn’t work that way.
Q2 was a tiny $1.4M, Q1 $16M and Q1’10 may look good at $43M, but $39M of that was from a legal settlement. Nothing really huge anywhere. Contrast that with a poorly performing old tech company like HP which reported net income $1.9B for most recent quarter.
” (play em for free, though)!”
This is the key issue. 97% of their “active users” don’t pay yet Zynga spends money to support all these non payers. All these users gives them potential, but a lot of internet companies have failed to transform eyeballs to dollars. Also don’t think there’s much of a barriers to exit for non payers once competition springs up.
Tc-sf, i always thought Zynga made money of non-paying players like me anyhow, based on ads, but these days it seems like the only adds I see on there are for other Zynga games I’m only going to play for free
And I for one only play games Zynga buys from other game companies, none of the ones they developed
OK, so what do you do Eddy?
“Tc-sf, i always thought Zynga made money of non-paying players like me anyhow, based on ads, ”
They do, but I think advertising is roughly 5% of their revenue.
Good luck with you analyses. Comparing Zynga to HP, really?
@dontgetit, I’m just a cook.
Well, HP’s market cap is $53bb. People are talking about an $11-20bb valuation for zynga at its IPO. So the HP comparison is not out of line and illustrates how utterly absurd such an IPO valuation is.
Now, that’s not to say it won’t go off at that valuation. People once valued Pets.com and Fogdog at crazy-high numbers because, yeah, they did nothing more than sell everyday stuff, but they did it on “the internet”!
” I’m just a cook.”
For your customer’s sake I hope you’re better at understanding FDA cooking tables then SEC filings! Chicken cooked to the huge temperature of 75F probably won’t make a monster meal!
Way off topic here but its clear that fundamental understanding of growth, valuations and comparable stocks are lacking. Now we’re comparing Zynga to pets.com and fogdog? I ‘get’ the ‘bubble’ reference and what you’re insinuating, but HP’s software, hardware and service business, growth, margins, etc bear no relevance to what Zynga does to earn money on selling games / virtual goods. A better comp would be ERTS and much better technical arguments could be made.
@tc_sf, you can pretend that you didn’t just randomly google Zynga’s profits and cherry pick out 12.5m from some headline to inacuratly and hastily misreport their profits; but that is exactly what happened here. No one here is fooled. All 5 of us. Again, do you have an opinion on Zynga’s IPO? The four of us would love to hear it?
Jordan Tate: So who are you? Are you, you, like, some special forces guy or something?
Casey Ryback: Nah. I’m just a cook.
Jordan Tate: A cook?
Casey Ryback: [Whispering] Just a lowly, lowly cook.
Jordan Tate: Oh, my God, we’re gonna die.
@FAB, at least someone around here has a sense of humor! 🙂
Anyone know who just bought 2250 Washington for $5M that listed / closed in 35 days for 100k over asking @ $1200/psf? What was that about lux real estate?
[Editor’s Note: Yes. And if you want to know more, keep plugging in…]
” you can pretend that you didn’t just randomly google Zynga’s profits”
Your just digging yourself deeper into a hole. They just re-filed their S-1 last week, the numbers have been all over the headlines. And the Q2 $1M is far worse then the “cherry picked” MRQ of $12M
You profess interest in these sorts of things but are so obviously unaware of basic news. Forgot SEC filings, if you’re truly interested you should at least read some more blogs and newspapers.
If you post that a company has “huge profits” and clearly haven’t even seen recent headlines regarding that companies profit. What exact reaction do you expect to get?
I understand they just laid off every contractor they had, 250 people, just to goose their profits.
Hilarious, Zynga’s CEO wants its employees to give stock back. What a maroon.
http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/business&id=8426597
“I understand they just laid off every contractor they had, 250 people, just to goose their profits.”
Also, they don’t recognize revenue when people pay them but over the lifetime of the virtual goods they buy. Some logic to this as they can’t really just kill a game once people have paid for virtual sheep or whatnot. But given the virtual nature of goods it gives them wide latitude over when income gets recognized as revenue.
@tc_sf, so no opinion? go figure. maybe you’ll read a news story or perform a google search and find one.
@Adam, looking forward to the feature on 2250. Cheers. The helicopter fly over and Hollywood trailer on that place should be enough of a feature in and of itself. Seriously, if you haven’t see the video on the site for this property, the first 90 seconds are hilarious. Name link. CHECKMATE!!
fyi, the checkmate comment above is a reference to the name link listing notes. Cheers.
Oh Man! My GRPN shares have lost $100,000, down 33% in less than a month. There goes my downpayment money.
After yesterday’s LNKD loss, I’d feel really badly, but I’ve learned never to beat myself up over things that aren’t foreseeable. I mean, who could have predicted that stocks in unprofitable dot com companies would lose money?
An insider with 100,000 LNKD options at $20, in a few weeks, went from having options worth over $1Mil to options worth $7,000.
Someone with 100,000 options for Pandora at $11.75 went from having $1.4M to having $10,000. Instead of paying cash for a home they can now use those options for first/last and a deposit on a rental. Nice!
So basically you are saying that real estate is a way better investment than the stock market, if I’m reading you right (and I think I am).
Definitely better than the dot-com-two market. Better yet is sticking your cash in an insured bank account for a while. There are lots of places to put money, but of these three options, that is my ranking.
During dot-com-one, we saw tens of thousands of local folks take home real cash because markets climbed for years after IPOs and stock options became very valuable. There is no indication yet that will be repeated, although there may be an isolated exception — Facebook is a good candidate. So far, looks like VCs and a handful of founders/execs are the only ones making the big IPO bucks (along with investment bankers and a handful of lawyers to a lesser, but still significant, degree).
There are lots of other good places to put your money, but my plugs always get pulled down.
Yeah, and the old standby of hookers and blow are another decent option – I’d put them below a bank account and real estate but above dot-com-two (well, okay, at the top, but I’m pretending to be objective).
A.T., those aren’t your only options other than the “dot-com-two stocks” or even the stock market in general. From bloomberg, Say What? In 30-Year Race, Bonds Beat Stocks:
Emphasis added. Obviously, since the S&P 500 is down since the late October publication date of this article, and yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note are still below 2%, the relative returns on Treasury bonds look even better now. The Vanguard Long Term Treasury Fund (not that I am enamored of mutual funds, but at some point you have to be practical) has returned 16.8% over the past year and 12.9% over the past three years.
After yesterday’s LNKD loss, I’d feel really badly, but I’ve learned never to beat myself up over things that aren’t foreseeable. I mean, who could have predicted that stocks in unprofitable dot com companies would lose money?
An insider with 100,000 LNKD options at $20, in a few weeks, went from having options worth over $1Mil to options worth $7,000.
Didn’t LinkedIn’s lockup end this week? There are probably all kinds of shares flooding the market now.
Your math seems off, tipster. Isn’t their stock price near $70 still?
Crap, you’re right: I meant GRPN, not LNKD. I get all these profitless dot com stocks mixed up.
Thanks for sharing that link eddy. That video is really funny, in a way that I think the authors did not really intend.
At least your $19 Groupon options are still in the money. D’oh! Well your $18 options are still dry. D’oh! Your $17 . . . D’oh!
Hard to believe that a dot-com company that hemorrhages money – but has funny commercials – could not be a huge stock market success.