CFAH

While Tower I sold out in November as previously reported, the final Phase I condo (Tower I plus the treetops) has now closed as well. Call it roughly 50 closings over the past two months with 600 of the 650 Infinity units closed (and 25 that aren’t currently in contract).
Infinity Tower I Sold Out, Tower II At 70 Percent, 85 Percent Overall [SocketSite]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by notsexy

    who cares??? I plan on waiting 1-2 years and buying at a 20-25% discount.

  2. Posted by John

    You just keep on waiting. I think you missed the bottom.

  3. Posted by Paul Hwang

    notsexy,
    LOL! I’m probably not the only one. Well I believe there are less than 20 units unsold / not in escrow at Infinity (That’s what they told me a few days ago).
    “who cares???” that reminds me of the punch line of an Andrew Dice Clay joke!!!
    Paul

  4. Posted by Legacy Dude

    The really telling metric would be average $/sf of properties sold in tower 1 vs. tower 2. My guess is that there’s probably a 20% delta between the two. But doubtful that anyone who knows would ever disclose this info anyway.

  5. Posted by huh?

    ^^^ The delta between Tower 1 and Tower 2 is probably close to 30-35%, with -44% being the largest apples comparison I found.

  6. Posted by SFRE

    Paul, do your really think the prices will be 25% lower in 2 years?

  7. Posted by Ivan T

    notsexy,
    Who’s going to give you 20-25% discounts in 2 years? Those deals have passed you already. The developer is almost out of there.

  8. Posted by Rincon Hill Billy

    *yawn*

  9. Posted by dogboy

    Who’s going to give you 20-25% discounts in 2 years?

    That would be the banks…

  10. Posted by Legacy Dude

    I don’t think Infinity prices in 2 years will be 25% lower than today. However, I also don’t think they’ll be materially higher than today, either. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few T1 buyers walk away from their instant negative equity in the near future.

  11. Posted by marko1332

    Who’s going to give you 20-25% discounts in 2 years?
    That would be the banks…
    No, that would be the taxpayers, at least the 10% of us who pay 70% of the taxes.

  12. Posted by notsexy

    Have you seen the attempts at resales/flips/investments at this property? They are all taking at least a 20% net hit. This reminds me of the last time I bought a new car and drove off the lot. 20% depreciation right out of the gate.

  13. Posted by Michael

    The developer might be running out of inventory and bulk discounts but there will be more of these:
    https://socketsite.com/archives/2009/12/the_confidential_infinity_short_sale_scoop_301_main_9e.html
    Watch for tower one resales.

  14. Posted by tipster

    The real discounting will occur when the banks start foreclosing on the Tower I properties, most of which were purchased at the peak of the market.
    Another year or two and the inevitable divorce/job transfer/can’t-afford-the-condo-we-rarely-use crowd will start to walk away. That’s when you’ll start seeing real bargains.
    The second “Brannan Bank Owned Anomaly” is still available at 721 psft. That was an unheard of price at that property 6 weeks ago. Now it just sits.

  15. Posted by wow

    That’s one expensive new condo smell.

  16. Posted by Ivan T

    To clarify, 25% reductions at T1 are very plausible with bank approval. Not so much in T2 where the major deals were happening from the developer.

  17. Posted by louis

    infinity tower one sold out somewhere between 900 and 950 psf
    tower two will have sold out between 800 and 850 psf.
    the bottom was april 2009 and it is gone.
    there will be some banks sales, probably more in one than two, but it will not drive the project or the market back down by much.
    there are around 25 unit left, top of tower two asking aorund 2 mil. each.

  18. Posted by taco-taco

    my company had our holiday party at one of the penthouses in T2 last month. apparently the developer is using it for corp events to make some cash.
    the infinity had a rep there in case folks were interested in buying.
    they’re asking $8m.
    party goers were wowed by the view but everyone thought the price was off by at least $4m. clearly not the crowd the sales office was hoping for.

  19. Posted by anon

    “You just keep on waiting. I think you missed the bottom.” – John
    “the bottom was april 2009 and it is gone.” – louis
    John = louis = both reps of the Infinity?
    I love these conclusory statements. 🙂

  20. Posted by tipster

    Those posts by John and louis remind me of all the T1 buyers who came on here two years ago with guarantees of T2 being priced higher than T1. Didn’t quite work out that way, in spite of their repeated assertions.

  21. Posted by anon

    Things are going to be interesting in SoBe/Rincon Hill now that there are less new units on the market, probably dwindling to zero by the end of the year. And no new units on the horizon for the next 2-3 years.
    New unit supply in the area has shrunk enormously and prices are going to continue to bounce.

  22. Posted by val

    I am one of those people who thinks that although the SOMA prices are more reasonable, they are still high. But at the end of the day, as long as there are lots of people looking to buy, they will sustain the prices for a while.
    I spoke with a fairly brain-dead RE broker about a couple of SOMA properties (Palms, etc) and he kept saying how there are lots of buyers and how they bid up the prices, and how of course RE always goes up.
    When everyone is telling me that, it is a signal to be on the sidelines…
    Thoughts?

  23. Posted by huh?

    “tower two will have sold out between 800 and 850 psf.”
    If you exclude all of the (numerous) units that were sold in the high $600 and $700 psf range in Tower 2, then this statement is completely accurate. Otherwise, it’s comical.
    I imagine a range around $700 – $750 psf is more realistic for Tower 2 and would think that the Tower 1 level might be a little higher than $950 psf.

  24. Posted by Legacy Dude

    “New unit supply in the area has shrunk enormously and prices are going to continue to bounce.”
    Soma wasn’t/isn’t grossly overbuilt, it was just grossly overpriced. In other words, inventory wasn’t the problem. The problem was that prices got above economic fundamentals, and remain there today, though less so than during the peak bubble years. This city still needs more housing, and it needs to better utilize existing housing stock, a material percentage of which basically sits vacant thanks to prop 13 and rent control.
    Inventory notwithstanding, any bounce that is occurring has been mostly due to the government takeover of the mortgage market. We’ll see how long they can keep flushing borrowed money down the FNM/FRE/FHA drains – it can’t be forever.
    The good news for Soma is that prices here seem to have adjusted more quickly than in certain other areas of SF, maybe due to the relative homogeneity of the housing stock, maybe due to developers making an unemotional call to chop prices on newer developments. In any case, assuming your average 2-bedroom condo rents for $3,200/month, you approach buy vs. rent parity in the $600K range with 20% down on a 5.5% mortgage. It won’t be overnight, but I still think the Soma market reverts to buy/rent parity in the next few years. It’s already closer than many other parts of SF.

  25. Posted by Caltech

    Interesting discussion… There is definitely a lack of real affordable 2/2 inventory (the E units at Blu don’t count as 2/2 given the small footprint).
    *By affordable I mean under $700k.
    I also wonder how developments like Esprit and Radiance are holding up in Mission Bay/Dogpatch.

  26. Posted by chomes

    None of us knows what is going to happen in the future, but so far, the bottom at the Infinity was in April 2009. The data is available.

  27. Posted by J

    April 2009 had below $514 per square foot???
    Dec 2009:
    https://socketsite.com/archives/2009/12/the_confidential_infinity_short_sale_scoop_301_main_9e.html
    Looks like the trajectory is still heading down…

  28. Posted by J

    …The data is available…

  29. Posted by uloa

    There were several 2bd that were in the 600k’s and even a few that went in the 500k’s. Mostly all in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2009.

  30. Posted by huh?

    ^^^ j has referenced a unit sold at $514 psf in December 2009. Accordingly, how is it credible to contend that the bleeding stopped on the arbitrary date of April 2009?
    Chomes, it’s one thing to say “the data is available”, it’s another to produce that said data. We are all waiting, with baited breath.

  31. Posted by OneEyedMan

    huh? –
    Please stay out of the bait box while you are waiting for said data ….
    http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/bated+breath

  32. Posted by chomes

    LOL, yes the data is available to the general public using this internet thingy. You can use the tax assessor website for sale prices…or Zillow for sale prices and sale dates. You do need to know the configuration of the building to understand which units are comps. I am aware of instances where prices are up as much as 20% in certain stacks between April and September 2009.
    huh? – you can go ahead and breath normally again.

  33. Posted by huh?

    Have resumed normal breathing once more, without bait 🙂
    Speaking of Zillow –
    338 Spear St UNIT 9G,
    Recently Sold: $350,000
    Zestimate: $844,000
    Sold On: 10/01/2009
    This 1 bedroom unit in Tower 2 is 704 sf according to the Sales Office. Accordingly this unit sold for $497 psf in October 2009. If prices were legitimately 20% lower in April ’09 then presumably there were units that sold for $400 psf? If so, do you have an example you can share?

  34. Posted by tipster

    Hey huh?
    Stop citing hard data to counter numbers that people are pulling out of their A$$.

  35. Posted by anonn

    That’s rich, Tipster.

  36. Posted by huh?

    Sorry tipster, facts do have a nasty habit of getting in the way of a good b.s. story. But, what the hell –
    338 Spear St UNIT 5H,
    Recently Sold: $400,000
    Zestimate: $464,000
    Beds: 1
    Baths: 1.0
    Sqft: 733
    Sold On: 05/15/2009
    This 1 bedroom was sold in May ’09 for $545 psf. That’s a lower floor and higher psf cost in May than the prior 1/1 example from October. Accordingly, it looks like prices continued to drop as 2009 progressed.

  37. Posted by chomes

    I didn’t say prices were lower across the board by 20% in April 2009 – please read my previous statement more closely. The difference is probably closer to 4% overall.
    I don’t know what your point is on 9G. We don’t know the details of that individual transaction. However, using some data I pulled out of my A$$ just for Tipster, 8G sold at $410K on 11/16. 9G sold at $505K on 11/06. 11G sold at $510K on 11/06. If you want to use 8G as some important data point, it looks like prices are up 46% in 5 weeks.
    I could spend all night giving you examples of specific situations where there has been some price improvement since spring, but what is the point? Why do you care?

  38. Posted by chomes

    Sorry huh?…now you are comparing two different units, four floors apart and trying to determine the overall trend for the development over a period of six months? Can’t you see how ridiculous that is?

  39. Posted by Anon E. Mouse

    Looks like chomes is also a rep of the Infinity? Seriously, it looks like people affiliated with the Infinity are making a concerted effort to imply that Infinity prices have been climbing since April 2009. With all the discussion on SocketSite about why peak is in one *YEAR* or the other, why else would two seemingly unrelated commenters pick the same month for a trough?
    They aren’t even trying to be as fuzzy as “since last spring” or “since the 1st half of 2009.” Obviously, none of the sales teams in these condo buildings are particularly known for transparency, but this seems shady to me.

  40. Posted by J

    Referencing “stacks” instead of floor plans or models, does seem to reveal one’s identity as a member of the sales staff…

  41. Posted by chomes

    Nope, sorry, not affiliated in any way, just paying close attention and noting that some trends started (market-wide) in that time frame. It has also been posted on here previously that the developer mentioned this timing in an open forum. I have seen nothing to contradict his statement.
    By the way, the sales team doesn’t need any help or shady methods. They have less than 20 to sell out of 650. They are spending time looking for their next job…not posting on this forum.

  42. Posted by Outsider

    I walked into the sales office for the very first time late March 09 when the Dow was at 6500 to see a teaser Tower I unit and walked out with a much larger and much more desirable Tower II unit for far less money than I thought possible. Good friend of mine used my price as a guide in late summer and early fall and couldn’t come within 10% of what I paid on comparable units no matter how hard he tried. By November, the prices became even higher not because there was appreciation but because the inventory has dwindled to a point he was forced to look at higher floor units with more expensive “view.” I have no crystal ball to see into the future but as we stand today, April probably was the bottom…

  43. Posted by tipster

    8G sold at $410K on 11/16. 9G sold at $505K on 11/06. 11G sold at $510K on 11/06.
    OK, so what this tells me is:
    1. 8G probably has no view at all and 9G just clears the top of the building and has a pretty decent view.
    2. A $2500 per floor premium between floor 9 and 11 is ridiculously low. 9G was probably significantly upgraded compared to the other two units.
    3. The tax credits that people thought were expiring caused some people to pay somewhat higher prices in November. It’s probably less of an issue of April being a bottom as much as November got a little boost.
    I note that none of your “later comps” are on the lower floors.
    So all in all, the cheapest places probably sold first, and then when they ran out of those, the pricier units sold. The developer priced views at premiums – what’s new? “Outsider” (who is an owner in the building) confirms all of this. That really says nothing about price trends for the same unit.
    I suspect the posters here are not so much realtors as flippers from T1, who are now attempting to portray the market prices paid as “anomalies” rather than market prices. Good luck with that. As long as jobs are still hard to get, salaries are lower, companies still laying off and banks are requiring actual down payments, income or both to support the loans, prices aren’t going up.
    When the effects of the stimulus programs begin to wear off and intervention in the markets starts dropping off, you’ll see further reductions. Just the tax credits expiring will cause prices to fall some.

  44. Posted by Anon E. Mouse

    Agree with tipster. If these flippers/salespeople are calling “bottom” based on the fact that units that should obviously be more expensive sold later, then the whole April thing is even more of a joke. And as Tipster points out, the bonus on 11G vs. 9G is a joke too. We’ll see if they get some traction on this theme in the short-term, but the long-term doesn’t look good.

  45. Posted by anonn

    Man, disagree with CW, get branded a shill. Lame.

  46. Posted by Anon E. Mouse

    Since when did being a housing bear or being someone who believes in valuation get branded as conventional wisdom?
    If anything, conventional wisdom is stuff realtors say, such as:
    “housing will always go up in value”
    “housing is an investment”
    “why throw away all your money on renting?”
    “housing in San Francisco will never be a bad investment”
    “it’s all micro, bro”
    “there’s no housing bubble”
    Being a housing bear is a contrarian position to the conventional wisdom.
    In any case, it’s pretty transparent shilling by these people, considering the data do not agree with them. If they are trying to pass off higher-end sales as a rise in value, they are sadly mistaken, and no amount of shilling will fix it. The data these people have provided about a bottom in value for the Infinity is incredibly incredibly thin.

  47. Posted by bewatcher

    The market definitely will stay flat for the next few years. With negative equity, Tower 1 owners will walk. You will see the price will come down even more.

  48. Posted by anonn

    It’s not transparent shilling by the likes of chomes. You were informed that chomes is not so biased, by chomes. What it is, is a transparent willfullness to slap a dismissive label, by you. And when it comes to CW and this website it’s exactly the way I said it is. Your thoughtless CW netspeak realtor barbs notwithstanding.

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