CFAH

Preliminary September labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.7%, 8.0% and 9.0% respectively, down 0.4 percentage points in San Francisco, down 0.3 percentage points in Marin, and down 0.2 percentage points in Marin from August.
While the number of unemployed in San Francisco decreased by 2,200 (from 45,600 to 43,400) in September, however, the number of employed fell by 2,600 (from 406,300 to 403,700) and the labor force contracted by 4,900 (from 452,000 to 447,100).
Overall California unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points to 12.0%.
Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: September 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.1 Percent In August [SocketSite]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by hotep

    there’s a [possibly rounding] error in those numbers.
    [Editor’s Note: While the September figures are straight from the EDD report (see link), our delta from August is “preliminary count to preliminary count” which might result in a discrepancy you see. Also as noted, “Data may not add due to rounding…[but] the unemployment rate is calculated using unrounded data.”]

  2. Posted by Undercounted

    Add those [no] longer receiving unemployment insurance, those that are either under employed or no longer looking, those that will soon move elsewhere…SF number is likely 65,000.

  3. Posted by stucco-sux

    Les beginning of les end… ne’est se pas?

  4. Posted by Gil

    “Les beginning of les end… ne’est se pas?”
    Je ne sais quoi.
    But, a number of analysts said unemployment would peak in the 3rd or 4th quarter this year and then start falling going into next year.

  5. Posted by Trip

    The month-to-month numbers form the EDD seem to have too much noise to know exactly what the trend is until we’re several months down the road. SF’s labor force and # of employed seems to swing up and down month-to-month far more than could be the case. This month shows 4900 fewer residents in the labor force; August showed 2100 fewer; July showed a 4200 increase. I suppose it might be explained by college kids home for the summer or coming here for summer jobs. There’s a big difference (particularly re impact on housing markets) between unemployment falling because people are getting hired and the rate dropping because people are fleeing town to find jobs elsewhere. Can’t tell which it is yet.
    Nevertheless, any drop in the rate is good to hear.

  6. Posted by Fish

    Both unemployed and employed went down, and labor force contracted. From these numbers, I’d guess that 4000-6000 people left the city, or stop looking for work.

  7. Posted by anon

    “Both unemployed and employed went down, and labor force contracted. From these numbers, I’d guess that 4000-6000 people left the city, or stop looking for work”…
    actually they are all panhandling on Haight Street. Have you been there lately? Thought I saw my old landlord.

  8. Posted by J

    But, a number of analysts said unemployment would peak in the 3rd or 4th quarter this year and then start falling going into next year.
    Who? Are you sure they weren’t talking about Q3 2010?
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/unemployment-stress-tests-unemployed.html

  9. Posted by Financial Samurai

    I’m just wondering what you guys think about real unemployment in SF. Everywhere I look, the restaurants are packed and the traffic is horrible.
    With the stock market roaring back, are the good times back again? It really doesn’t feel like a recession, does it?

  10. Posted by diemos

    “It really doesn’t feel like a recession, does it?”
    If you’re one of the people who still has their job then everything is fine.
    If you’re one of the people without a job everything is not fine.
    The effects of economic contraction don’t fall evenly on the population.

  11. Posted by steve

    diemos, obviously true. however, I concur that good restaurants are packed, shops are crowded, etc. this wasn’t the case last fall and early winter. in addition, the 2000 crash seemed to hit harder and last longer than this one has (so far).

  12. Posted by diemos

    But that just goes back to my point. The job losses from the tech bust were centered in the bay area. It’s not surprising that SF in 2000 felt worse than today. Today’s slowdown is more widespread and not concentrated in tech.

  13. Posted by J

    I think you guys are just looking at too little data. As far as I can tell, unemployment is worse in the bay area than it has been in decades.
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Sj7FkxcQmVI/AAAAAAAAFmE/F90K3I1fSfU/s1600/RealSanFrancisco.jpg
    What you can see, is that SF is not doing quite as bad as the state overall, but it is not much better.

  14. Posted by J

    the 2000 crash seemed to hit harder and last longer than this one has (so far).
    Look at the chart I just posted. In the last recession, unemployment in the bay area peaked at 7% in the bay area. We’ve been well above that all year now, and probably will stay that way for another year or 2…

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