San Francisco’s Housing Pipeline And 2009 Housing Element ReportSeptember 4, 2009
According to the San Francisco Planning Department and its 2004 and 2009 Housing Element Report, San Francisco’s big picture (click to enlarge) housing pipeline is as so:
∙ 156 projects with 6,510 housing units are currently under construction
∙ 168 projects representing 2,850 units have received a building permit
∙ 316 projects representing 4,480 units have applied for a building permit
∙ 92 projects representing 6,200 units have been approved by the Planning Department
∙ 130 projects representing 34,750 units have filed for Planning Department approval
From the Planning Department’s report:
Collectively, these 54,790 new units represent San Francisco’s pipeline projects….It is possible that some of these projects may not go forward due to shifts in economic and legislative conditions. However, production trends over the last decade show that as much as 85 percent to 90 percent of pipeline project units are completed within five to seven years.
We’ll keep you plugged-in to the happenings on all 54,790.
UPDATE: As a plugged-in OneEyedMan notes, and perhaps we should have emphasized, the next ten years are unlikely to be like the last. Or as we often like to quote, “past performance is no guarantee of future returns.”
Comments from Plugged-In Readers
those 54,790 units include several large area plan/master developments that are intended to be built out over 20 years or more, so the statement that 85-90 percent of “pipeline” projects are built in 5-7 years is misleading and nonsensical.
With the economy and all I wonder if we can assume that 85% of these will be built out or if the percentage will be far lower?
Two Rincon Hill sounds like it is dead so there are several hundred units to subtract from the approved total. The empty lot on Market near 10th. looks like it is dead too. Another several hundred units to remove from the approved total.
There was an article in the SF Business Times which said it will probably be a decade before any more south of Market condo high-rises are built. That would amount to thousands of units planned but not approved going into indefinite hold.
The Parkmerced project is facing stiff oppostion. It may get built but likely will be significantly scaled back. Maybe subtract another 1500 plus units there. Additionally, no way ParkMerced was going to be done in 5 – 7 years.
JMHO, but these numbers are a pipe dream.
“possible” that some of the projects won’t go forward….that just makes me laugh.
Take your production trends of the last decade and throw them in the dumpster … oops, recycling bin. There is a big valve at the end of the pipeline tagged MONEY – and right now it’s shut off tight. Here’s what I think:
90% of under construction gets finished = 5859
70% of permited gets built = 1995
50% applied for permits get built = 2240
25% planning department approved make it = 1550
10% looking for approval become actual dwellings = 3475
Grand total about 15,000 which is 28% of what’s in the pipeline. And that’s using my rose colored monacle!
“Grand total about 15,000 which is 28% of what’s in the pipeline. And that’s using my rose colored monacle!”
Interesting projection. You could be in the ball park.
The high-rise condo nest that was supposed to arise around the terminal ain’t happening any time soon – as in the next 15 plus years – if it ever happens.
550 new units in Bernal Heights?! yeah, right.
And that 15,000 units assumes that the economy is chugging along at full steam: employment is very high, there is a low level of housing inventory, and banks are lending to RE developers at reasonable rates. In other words, things have to be going freakin great for these units to be built.
+40% of the proposed are in Park Merced, Candlestick and Treasure Island. Not exactly realSF.
fyi – This document is part of the CEQA compliance process for the Housing Element. The projects that are identified have applications in at the Planning Department and are therefore “reasonably foreseeable” – so they have to be assumed for the purpose of assessing environmental impacts. This is for the CEQA world, not the real world, in other words.
How is Park Merced not “realSF”?
Of this projects, how many are currnet owners that wouldn’t be adding this supply to the housing market? Is there a way to get that stat? Obviously it would probably be a small dent, but worth noting.
So of the proposed ~50k units, ~14k are downtown + Transbay + Rincon Hill + SOMA/East SOMA, an area unconscious after 9pm. Could that many people in a dense setting spark a pulse?
Another 11k units are “Candlestick”, which is speculative at best.
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