CFAH

714 Duncan
The apples-to-apples sale of 714 Duncan closed escrow on 6/23/09 with a reported contract price of $1,095,000. Purchased for $1,413,000 in January 2008, a transfer forced the “mark to market” sale and the realization of a 22.5% drop in value.
As we wrote when listed for $1,295,000:

There’s little doubt the quick turn will result in a loss as even with “typical San Francisco appreciation” transaction costs wouldn’t be covered. But that doesn’t mean this data point will be flawed. In fact, this sale will provide some rather clean commentary on changing neighborhood values over just the past year. And that’s why we like, and offer, our apples.

And when subsequently reduced to $1,195,000 as well.
Apples To Apples With Views, Views, Views! (714 Duncan) [SocketSite]
Four Weeks Riper (And Another Reduction) For This Noe Valley Apple [SocketSite]
Expectation Setting: San Francisco Appreciation [SocketSite]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by tipster

    Realtors, you can spin this positively: tell all your clients that Noe is so popular that one family paid about $800 per day to rent (from the bank) a modest Noe house!
    Noe is hot, hot, hot. This is breaking news!

  2. Posted by JEff

    More like Diamond Heights, if you ask me.
    Incredible view from that place, a little inve$t could yield a killer view home, IMO.

  3. Posted by San fronziScheme

    Yeah, we know, it’s not really in Noe but more in the DH, the property is severely flawed, sitting just a few miles away from the San Andreas Fault, the layout is not for people with 8 kids or more, the previous buyer grossly overpaid (who has ever seen a 1.5M house in 2008 in this neighborhood?) and furthermore confused Renminbi with dollars.
    Whatever the spin, it’s an interesting datapoint.

  4. Posted by LMRiM

    Down more than 20% in a bit over a year is fantastic news for this place! Only about another 25% down (from here), and this house will be at intrinsic value imo.
    Congrats to the 2008 seller here. It was listed in Fall 2007 for a while at $1.495M, so it wasn’t a wild overbid situation that resulted in the $1.413M sales price. Great timing for the 2008 sellers – by early 2008 only the most clueless suckers didn’t understand that the economy was about to fall off a cliff, and the sellers were very lucky to snare one of them.

  5. Posted by LMRiM

    BTW, let’s keep an eye on where 826 Duncan closes. Sold for $1.325M in 5/2005, after 100DOM+ it’s contingent at last listing price of $1.230M.
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/826-Duncan-St-94131/home/1311596

  6. Posted by Mose

    Wow. That is a brutal loss. It’s hard not to feel at least a little sorry for the seller.

  7. Posted by chuckie

    664 Duncan closed escrow a few days ago for $1,295K. Last sold June 2004 for the very lucky $888K. A gain of 46% over the 5 year holding period. Noe is hot!
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/664-Duncan-St-94131/home/1880026
    http://home-sanfrancisco.com/realestate-listing.cfm?id=14435

  8. Posted by diemos

    “Noe is hot!”
    I smell renovation. Anyone know the scoop.

  9. Posted by tipster

    “I smell renovation. Anyone know the scoop.”
    664 Duncan had an updated kitchen and bath and master suite added downstairs.
    http://www.neighborcity.com/property/664-Duncan-St-San-Francisco-CA-94131-355724-3485791/

  10. Posted by San FronziScheme

    Well, for 664 Duncan PropertyShark does show a sale on 6/4/04 for 888K.
    But it also shows 2 permits right after purchase:
    6/10/04 – Remodel kitchen dining area w/cabs, plumbing, electrical, drywall appliances. doorway from living rm
    9/27/04 – Rear deck off 2nd floor.
    Not a clean apple.

  11. Posted by San FronziScheme

    This 664 Duncan apple has been thrown into the oranges basket. Plus, is it really Noe? 😉

  12. Posted by 94114

    664 Duncan is most definitely Noe. Please take a look at a map.

  13. Posted by Jeff

    I thought 664 Duncan was Upper-Lower-Lower-Pac-Heights???

  14. Posted by EBGuy

    … And in other news across the valley, the Three Musketeers went contingent (last weekend?) on the Bernal flip. Should be a clean apple once (if?) it closes.

  15. Posted by anonn

    Realtors, you can spin this positively: tell all your clients that Noe is so popular that one family paid about $800 per day to rent (from the bank) a modest Noe house!
    Noe is hot, hot, hot. This is breaking news!

    Why do you say the same thing over and over again, Tipster? Lots of other names with that cynical little cadence have changed. Yours has stayed the same. Yawn.

  16. Posted by ex SF-er

    I thought 664 Duncan was Upper-Lower-Lower-Pac-Heights???
    ROFL. best line in a while.
    However, you err. it is Upper-Lower-Lower-Pac-Heights adjacent.
    as to this property, the seller clearly took an absolute drubbing. it’s one of the problems with SF RE. Even small to medium percentage losses can translate into huge dollar losses.

  17. Posted by eddy

    Meanwhile 4322 25th St goes into Firm Escrow @ $2.6M after only 8 days on the market; and an ugly facade. Go figure?

  18. Posted by anonn

    Another Noe property on 22nd street at I think ~2500 square feet went into contract after only eight days @ a 1.995M list too …

  19. Posted by eddy

    Nvm, 4322 actually has a nice facade; I was thinking of another home. It was 3642 22nd Street that went into contract at $2M in 8 days that has the ugly facade. Noe is not dead by a long shot.

  20. Posted by eddy

    Looks like we cross-posted the same house at the same time. 🙂

  21. Posted by anonn

    4322 has a plain new Victorian grey with white trim facade without much detail and it went pending after 6 days at 2.599M (don’t know how large it is). 3642 22nd has a facade that isn’t pictured on the MLS, and got into contract at 1.995M after not eight, but five days, and again is ~2500 feet or so.

  22. Posted by anonn

    um, 3648.
    That’s it. No more posting for me till this site gets an edit function. Too annoying.

  23. Posted by WADweller

    I lived on the 600 block of Duncan until just recently – it is definitely Noe! 714 is at the “bottom” of that section of the Duncan hill, so no hardship walking the handful of blocks to Pasta Gina, NVS, Firefly, and other things Noe. Fog settles at the top of the block (~800 Duncan), but burns off quickly (and often before 24th) from Diamond over.

  24. Posted by Willow

    Another “Noe is crumbling” post. Say what you will but Noe Valley is still very much in demand. For a significant portion of prospective SF buyers NV is always on their short list of neigborhoods to live, or at a minimum is under consideration. If anything it’s more often ruled out due to it’s relative (high) price to other area in SF. SS, how about some more information on those properties listed by other posters to balance out this picture?

  25. Posted by EBGuy

    Meanwhile, around the corner, it appears that 1420 Douglass was supposed to hit the auction block a couple of days ago. Bought for $1.945 in Aug. 2007. Auction amount was $1.5 million. It appears that there are around 34 properties in some state of foreclosure (NODs, NOTS, bankowned) in Noe. For perspective, 78 properties are for sale.

  26. Posted by LMRiM

    1420 Douglass – now that’s a blast from the SS past! That 2007 purchase (at more than $1100 psf) always struck me as particularly foolish, even in the context of all the foolishness of NV.
    They tried to sell about 5 months after they purchased it for over $2M, but the music had stopped. It looks like the attempt to find a greater fool failed. I hope they didn’t put down too much cash in the first loss position.
    [Editor’s Note: Our last post on 1420 Douglass with links to listings leading up to it: Another Look At 1420 Douglass (And A Reader’s “Lazy Noe Indicator”).]

  27. Posted by EBGuy

    And just to round things out, how about 538 Valley. Foreclosed at auction on June 1 for $670,601. Bought March 2007 for $1.03 million ($824k variable first mortgage, $206k fixed second); that’s gonna leave a mark on First Franklin’s balance sheet. The Coalition of the Willing grows by one more…

  28. Posted by unearthly

    But I told everyone in Noe was putting 20% down as a minimum?

  29. Posted by RenterAgain

    EBGuy, where did you find the foreclosure information? I’m not seeing any foreclosures listed on Redfin for Noe.
    I’m kind of shocked that there are 34 properties at risk. I’ve been paying close attention to listings/sales/withdrawals, but foreclosures have clearly been off my radar!

  30. Posted by EBGuy

    EBGuy, where did you find the foreclosure information?
    Yahoo!RealEstate is good for per neighborhood foreclosure information (horrible interface, though). That’s where I draw my neighborhood numbers. I also go directly to RealtyTrac sometimes. Once you get the square footage information you can use Zillow to locate the actual address. Some of the NODs are seconds that will get cured, or in some cases, ‘merely a flesh wound’ that indicate deeper financial distress. SFGate also publishes information from Trustee Sales every Monday (PropertyShark is good for getting a heads up on coming auctions).

  31. Posted by anonn

    4322 25th st sold for 2.61M, a nominal 11K over asking, after six days on the market.

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