714 Duncan
As we wrote when 714 Duncan hit the market four weeks ago asking $1,295,000 having been purchased for $1,413,000 in January of 2008:

There’s little doubt the quick turn will result in a loss as even with “typical San Francisco appreciation” transaction costs wouldn’t be covered. But that doesn’t mean this data point will be flawed. In fact, this sale will provide some rather clean commentary on changing neighborhood values over just the past year. And that’s why we like, and offer, our apples.

As a plugged-in reader notes, the list price for 714 Duncan has been reduced for a second time in four weeks, now asking $1,195,000 or 15.4% under its sale price in early 2008.
∙ Listing: 714 Duncan (4/2) 2,050 sqft – $1,195,000 [MLS]
Apples To Apples With Views, Views, Views! (714 Duncan) [SocketSite]
Expectation Setting: San Francisco Appreciation [SocketSite]

39 thoughts on “Four Weeks Riper (And Another Reduction) For This Noe Valley Apple”
  1. Any new spin, anonn? Or will you stick to the stale “the previous buyer overpaid” and “the market is only down 10%” script?
    San Franciscans will soon wonder “what does one do with an abundance of overripe apples?”
    My vote, hard cider.

  2. nnona, you know darn well anonn will find a way to wriggle out of this one too. Why bother trying to bait him?
    Don’t worry. Our government is almost out of bailout money and it will be political suicide to try for more. In another year even anonn will have to admit that prices — everywhere — are off.

  3. This is probably close to selling at this price. I don’t know values too well right around there, but I have a good read on market dynamics and sucker psychology.
    Many potential buyers have internalized the real estate cheerleader mantra that prices are only down 5-10%, as well as the idea that NV has been largely “immune”. That’s the purpose of the chorus, BTW. These agents all know the real deal, and there aren’t too many peak purchasers who are getting out with only 10% losses in SF.
    20% off would be irresistible to a potential purchaser who has internalized this chrous in the first stage of a market collapse (which is where we are imo for The Real SF), and such a potential buyer would assume others would view this as the opportunity that he does. Therefore he should be willing to pay somewhat above that nice round “20% off” number. It only takes one, and there is still a buying pool with access to resources… I say it goes here, maybe with some concessions and a nominal (1-2% discount) from this latest asking price.
    Market dynamics change entirely once we start seeing greater than 20% off prices in a given segment. At that point, people start to doubt the rationality of using “comps” and “market prices” to approximate worth, and having no fall back method of analyzing intrinsic value (at least until you get all the way down to cheaper to own than to rent), fear sets in.

  4. nice light and views. you can sit at the dinner table and laugh at the ORH people who paid more for their condo.
    actually the view pics look like you may need one of those telescope things that take quarters.
    i love those stager beds. bedrooms appear perfect for a family of trolls.

  5. dub dub: U kiddin? The sloopes off the house are a wild ride man. Just paint it black and turn the garage into a studio u no.
    LMRiM, perhaps we have entered Phase II.

  6. “Any new spin, anonn? Or will you stick to the stale “the previous buyer overpaid” and “the market is only down 10%” script?”
    Really, the very first post?
    My “spin” in the previous thread regarding this property had to do with median datasets. I was wondering why it is that very small datasets can determine median in falling markets. Yet a year and a half ago, any sub-30 dataset was MOCKED mercilessly in this same forum.
    Sorry for supposing people like you have a sense of what’s hypocritical or not. Clearly you’re only here to mock.
    You win. I give up. This house is “the market.” It is 15.5% down. O. Wait a minute. I thought THE ROYAL WE CREW TM said the market is down 20 %? Well, let’s see what it closes for. Maybe “the market” is only down 17.4%.
    Now I’m confused!
    Whatever.

  7. what is the point of all these “apples”? Any moron knows that real estate has tanked. These mantras seem to be getting old as every other socketsite post is about how the market has fallen 20%, we know this already?

  8. We are getting there. In a declining market, if you wait long enough, we will eventually become more than negative 10% from peak. But we can still endlessly argue over what the exact peak was.
    The apples give another interesting data point, to contrast with the C-S data, the DQ data, OFHEO data and new home sales.
    I think we are still in the long slow grinding decline phase of the bubble unwinding, but most others think we are in the historic drop. If this sells for (current) asking, I think the question would still be open. I am pretty surprised to see how far some of the Pac Heights apples have fallen though.

  9. I want to be a bear but on the ground, north of Clay, looking for SFR, there’s very little inventory, and anything that seems reasonable goes into contract – the house on Walnut, 2165 Jackson, 321 Avila (at 900k more, the house across the street at 268 Avila’s gonna take a little longer).
    Those with detractions, such as the geezer-repellant stairs on 1240 Filbert, the Lurmont house which I suspect is very small sf, take longer.

  10. Personally, I am not a big fan of the mid-century boxes that populate this part of Noe Valley. But less-than-$600 psf for a NV view home may be a new low in this market and I’m recalling is comparable to 2002-03 prices.

  11. “nnona, you know darn well anonn will find a way to wriggle out of this one too. Why bother trying to bait him?”
    I know, I know. It was a bit naughty. And, he definitely never needs bait.
    ——————
    “Really, the very first post?”
    What can I say, I’m a creature of the night.
    ——————
    “Clearly you’re only here to mock.”
    Actually have a few self-serving reasons for being here (and yours? .. you still haven’t cleared that up for us), one of which is benefiting from the research that this blog and posters like lmrim do in tracking ever ripening apples such as the subject of this post. Thanks, guys. As for the mocking, well….you do make such an easy, inviting, and willing target.
    ——————
    “Now I’m confused!”
    No comment.

  12. I think we are still in the long slow grinding decline phase of the bubble unwinding, but most others think we are in the historic drop.
    I tend to agree with the grinding comment for Noe; I don’t think you can get the jaw-dropping prices (more than 20% off) without REO capitulation. That said, it looks like a slight increase in “pent-up” supply for Noe, but probably not enough that it won’t be absorbed by the stroller brigade. According to Trulia, 15 foreclosures (NOD, NoTS, and bank owned) to 108 properties for sale.

  13. nice name, nnona. The opposite of mine. Gee. How clever. Glad you cleared it up. You follow LRMiM’s advice, and you make fun of me. OK. Good luck ever doing a single thing in SF r.e. You will need it.

  14. Someone wrote on another thread that asking and selling prices got really squirrelly at the beginning of another downturn (perhaps in the 80’s). I can’t hunt down the reference right now, but I feel that is happening now in Noe.
    Here’s another 4/2 of the same style–– mid-century, really a 2/1 with an additional 2/1 in the finished basement:
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/418-Jersey-St-94114/home/1257225
    The basement renovation is nice, but $1.65 million? Really? No permits shown on Property Shark, but presumably not an apple––sold for $1.16M in July 2006. No views that I noticed, but it’s a nice location near Castro/24th.

  15. 418 Jersey – It looks like a LOT of work was done; plenty of permits on the gov site, including:
    ****************
    Application Number: 200708068820
    Form Number: 8
    Address(es):
    6506 / 012 / 0 418 JERSEY ST
    Description: Interior remodel of master bedroom on 1st floor and kitchen on 2nd floor. New slab on 1st floor in M. bedroom
    Cost: $140,000.00
    Occupancy Code: R-3
    Building Use: 27 – 1 FAMILY DWELLING
    Application Number: PW20080528892
    Address(es):
    6506 / 012 / 418 JERSEY ST
    Description: WORK TYPE: FURNACE – NEW; NEW DUCTING AND NEW FLUE PIPE FOR THE FURNACE AND WATER HEATER.
    Application Number: PW20080102942
    Address(es):
    6506 / 012 / 418 JERSEY ST
    Description: WORK TYPE: NOT LISTED; REMODEL HOUSE – ROUGH IN NEW 2 BATHROOMS AND KITCHEN AND LAUNDRY.
    Application Number: EW20080220361
    Address(es):
    6506 / 012 / 418 JERSEY ST
    Description: COMPLETE REWIRE OF SINGLE FAMILY HOME [SCOPE OF WORK DOES NOT INCLUDE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC SPACE HEATER INSTALLATION.]
    *************
    There are a number of others as well (most closed already) on http://dbiweb.sfgov.org/dbipts/?page=AddressQuery
    With a $1.16M buy in 2006, it looks like they are just trying to get out without losing $$. Good luck.

  16. “Good luck ever doing a single thing in SF r.e.”
    It’s funny how some “Auslander” who grew up in Shytzville, (Midwestern State) can try to say this to a native San Franciscan whose family have “done” things in SF (and Greater Bay Area) real estate (and other fields) for generations (plural).
    To many outsiders, the “I’m a (x)th generation San Franciscan” and the “redneck” Nor*Cal gear might seem provincial and annoying. But it is just a natural reaction and pushback to the hordes of confused transplants who think they “represent” SF better than people who spent their formative years here and are “innately” San Franciscan (or Northern Californian, or Californian period for that matter).

  17. nonna, look at you. You’re a clown. Oh, you’re “from” here, are you? You’ve done things, have you? I highly doubt it. If so you wouldn’t call what I say “spin” and laud the likes of some folks who shall remain nameless. If you had a clew that is. Let the knowers know. Nice name.

  18. California Uber Alles! Let’s kick out all the auschlanders! Harvey Milk. Too bad we didn’t kick him out. Cesar Chavez. Shoulda booted him. Not to mention Clark Gable, Paul Newman, Martin Sheen, Dean Martin, Roy Rogers, Doris Day, Tyrone Power, or newer folks like Halle Berry — just a few auschlanders from my Shystzville state who never made their mark in Cali! Heck. Kick out the governor. (I’d actually be all for that one.) Oh, and I and my family have done more to resurrect blighted property, beautify this town, and put money in the city coffers over the last 15 years than probably any six generations of your family, combined.
    But keep on deriding me while big upping people who value property at less than it costs to build, bro. You’re educating yourself verrrrry well. Nice name too.

  19. “Oh, and I and my family have done more to resurrect blighted property, beautify this town, and put money in the city coffers over the last 15 years than probably any six generations of your family, combined”
    Touchy, touchy, Did i hit a nerve? Maybe I’ll nominate you and your family to receive a key to the city for your wonderful accomplishments. Without you, San Francisco would have devolved into….(gasp) Stockton or something.
    Wow, you even came back to rant again after looking up……Hollywood stars….. from your Shytzsville home state to bolster your nonsensical arguments. Take some deep breaths, control your anger.
    Good. Now go home. Take your family with you. No one will miss you, I promise.

  20. From the Bruce Kelley, Editor in Chief of SanFrancisco Magazine, May 2009:
    Early in her reporting Kelmon interviewed Adam Koval, who runs local real-estate resource Socketsite.com. His take: Keep an eye on Noe Valley over the year. “Noe was propped up by tech,” Koval said. “Three-million-dollar homes were bought against future anticipated gains on stock options and portfolios. Like San Francisco as a whole, it’s very dependent on capital markets.”

  21. “Touchy, touchy, Did i hit a nerve? Maybe I’ll nominate you and your family to receive a key to the city for your wonderful accomplishments. Without you, San Francisco would have devolved into….(gasp) Stockton or something.
    Wow, you even came back to rant again after looking up……Hollywood stars….. from your Shytzsville home state to bolster your nonsensical arguments. Take some deep breaths, control your anger.
    Good. Now go home. Take your family with you. No one will miss you, I promise.”
    No, not really. I said something. What is it that you said? “Go home. We don’t want you?” As if you are anything in my world? You just went personal for no reason, and you seemingly can’t take a response in kind. With homor. I mean, you seem to be serious with this “Go home” thing. LOL. The Hollywood thing is just a laugh. If Lebron James lived in Cali I’d have said him too, because he’s probably the best Ohioan in the world right now. Or maybe Devo because they are also great Ohioans. Us leave? Hell no. We’re useful. But you? You can go. Why don’t you take yourself and your family back to San Leandro or wherever else close minded kids like yourself come from around here.

  22. “What is it that you said? “Go home. WE don’t want you?”
    I said that??? Really??? I said “we don’t want you”??? Take another look at my post. What kind of education did you get in Ohio??? Can’t you read???
    I know the barriers to entry are reeeeeeaaaaallllllly low in your profession, but this is ridiculous.

  23. I didn’t say
    “Go home. We don’t want you. Can’t you read”
    I said
    “NOW go home. Take your family with you. No one one will miss you”
    He didn’t quote me exactly so now I’m going to call him stupid.

  24. 4207 26th st just sold for 875K, and some rooms needed work, including its incredibly ugly facade. It was a 1252 sq feet 2 br 1 ba and it went for ~700 a foot.

  25. 714 Duncan – above I wrote that I thought it would sell a bit below its last listing price of $1.195M (a bit more than 15% under its 2008 $1.413M sales price).
    I was wrong, and I admit it. 714 Duncan just cut another $100K to $1.095M, now 22.5% under its 2008 sale price. I hope not too many buyers back then thought the $1.413M sale was a good “comp”:
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/714-Duncan-St-94131/home/986000
    $534 psf for a redone view SFR on the edge of Noe.

  26. Curse the Coalition of the Willing; instead of keeping up neighborhood values, they sell out in the name of price discovery. Shock and awe — 2009 style.

  27. 714 Duncan is now in contract. As I suspected, 20% off last sales price is proving to be irresistible to at least some potential first round knifecatchers. It will be interesting to see where it closes, I bet a tiny bit over the last list of $1.095M.
    I bet the seller of 826 Duncan is not going to be happy about the “comp”. That one has been sitting for 80+ days w/o a reduction, while 714 Duncan cut 3 times in 50 days and looks to be getting sold. I think the big difference is that the losses on 714 are going to be eaten by a company as part of a relocation, while 826 Duncan has a lot of real money ($300k+) in the first loss position.
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/826-Duncan-St-94131/home/1311596

  28. In a rather strange twist 664 Duncan went contingent after 17 days at $825/sqft while 770 Duncan has been contingent over a month at $871/sqft. Neither property is $300/sqft better than 714 Duncan. I’ve recently noticed properties going into contingency quickly then staying contingent for months without ever closing.

  29. Any insight into why a property would get stuck in “contingent” mode for so long ? Even in a down market, contracts usually require contingencies to be removed to reach a COE date within one month.
    Having a property stay contingent for longer than a month seems really strange to me. Why would a seller allow that ? Even if the contract price was favorable to the seller, the risk of dropping out of contract for such a long contingency increases.
    Could the contingencies be on the buyer closing a sale of their current home ? Man, that whole chain of events could fall like a house of cards of the market continues to fall.

  30. Could the contingencies be on the buyer closing a sale of their current home
    Yes. In my experience longer contingent periods are often exactly that.

  31. Meanwhile a property, 23 Laidley, in Glen Park just above NV/GP border got into contract for 2.3M yesterday or today. The 2M+ Glen Park property count prior to 3/30/05 is exactly one, and it was 6500 sq ft. Whether or not we are watching paint dry is probably not up for debate. But it’s drying differently on different houses, that’s for sure.

  32. I saw 826 Duncan cut its price immediately after 714 went contingent too. They were very slow to cut, I suspect because they have $300K+ in the first loss position, and each cut is further into financial flesh.
    It’s a tough spot that I imagine many are finding themselves in. What was originally though to be a financially empowering decision (buying a house on leverage which was going to keep appreciating) turns into a debilitating one that traps you in a place you’d rather sell, but can’t because you can’t make peace with the losses. Which are already going to be upwards of $150K with 826 Duncan, and going higher imo.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *