From the latest Federal Reserve regional business survey (a.k.a. The Beige Book):
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic conditions deteriorated further during the reporting period of January through late February. Ten of the twelve reports indicated weaker conditions or declines in economic activity; the exceptions were Philadelphia and Chicago, which reported that their regional economies “remained weak.” The deterioration was broad based, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions. Looking ahead, contacts from various Districts rate the prospects for near-term improvement in economic conditions as poor, with a significant pickup not expected before late 2009 or early 2010.
As we wrote in April of 2008 when the Twelfth District (“San Francisco”) was showing weakness: what does economic activity have to do with real estate? We’ll just pretend you didn’t ask that question (if for some strange reason you did).
∙ Federal Reserve Bank: Beige Book Summary (March 4, 2009) [federalreserve.gov]
∙ Beige Book Results For The Twelfth District (San Francisco): Flat [SocketSite]
“what does economic activity have to do with real estate? We’ll just pretend you didn’t ask that question (if for some strange reason you did).”
I did. So far I can tell, housing is the leading indicator.
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This recession is different since housing is now the leading indicator. Banks have yet to fully disclose their huge losses, CDS markets are still unregulated, and hedge funds still do not need to report. We have a while to go until anything resembles stability in the markets.
I did. So far I can tell, housing is the leading indicator.
Yes. but the concern is that we will get feedback to housing again.
a vicious cycle.
So when would it be a good time to buy a house? Later this year? Early 2010?
good time to buy – yes, that is the question.
Lately as I see rents starting to decline, and as I hear that the mortgage deductions are no longer sacrosanct, I wonder if buying is a good idea at all. I’d wait until the government budget is finalized, the direction of housing policies congeal, and for sellers to take their chewable reality pills. It really depends on your own financial situation, but I think the end of the summer will be the beginning of the smart buyers’ season. (I sound like Chauncey Gardener from Being There.)
So when would it be a good time to buy a house? Later this year? Early 2010?
there is no hurry. there is absolutely zero chance that RE is going to turn on a dime and you’re going to miss out on significant RE appreciation if you fail to buy today. but there is risk of RE continuing to fall if you do buy.
my mantra (unchanged over the last 2 years) would be to consider buying IF you can afford it EASILY (20-30% of your TAKE HOME pay), it will be relatively PERMANENT (10 years or so), and when the median home prices rise for at least 1 year. also when you buy it as a HOME and not as an investment.
“So when would it be a good time to buy a house?”
Whenever you want.
Just don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose.
This recession may have started with housing bubble burst, but housing is still a lagging indicator: the market won’t recover well after the economy and employment recovers.