The pace of new contracts being written on that last 20% of available units in Infinity’s phase one has picked up steam recently which could be interpreted (and touted) as a sign of market strength.
At the same time, the plugged-in word on the street is that buyers have been able to negotiate discounts of as much as 20% off of original list prices as Tishman clears the way for their inventory in tower two.
That’s a sign that’s not being as openly discussed. And while it might be an opportunity for some, for others it could pose a near-term challenge with respect to resales in tower one.
∙ Infinity Tower Two Inventory To Start Selling In January (2009) [SocketSite]
∙ Another Infinity Resale (#9E) Within Those “Restricted” Two Years [SocketSite]
It’s finally time to take another look…
Makes sense. Since these are the least desired units in the building, they should be sold at a steep discount.
That’s a lot of least desired units. Aren’t lesser units usually priced at a discount to begin with?
Good point, but it’s possible that you may not know which units are least desired (or what the relative discount should be) until the market speaks.
Well, the market has spoken, and they’re obviously keen on selling out Tower 1 before moving on to Tower 2 (although I don’t necessarily think that is the profit-maximizing approach), hence the discounts.
Word on the street – what street, agents, buyers, or shoppers? Any confirmation that anything has actually closed 20% below original asking? Bummer, but to be expected I suppose, especially if the remaining units are the bad apples. Assuming this happens and pulls values down across the property hopefully tower II prices and sales will be strong and remain firm, help prop overall values back up.
This may actually prove to be a good strategy and help resales + near term appraisals?
hmmm…
Having to offer 20% discounts in order to closeout the project. Didn’t somebody predict that would happen?
Oh come on—last 20% of inventory available..that means in 2 months like 5% have moved. So they have been discounting 1/5th of the price and that’s all that has moved?
try 30% more…if that doesn’t work 40%..then 50.
it’ts my favorite building their sales team just needs to get realistic about selling at post bubble pricing.
p.s when they do the auciton for building two. I am totally going.
“hopefully tower II prices and sales will be strong and remain firm”
In this economy, how could Tower II sales not be strong. Oh no wait, there’s about a 99.9% chance Tower II will crash & burn. A smarter Infinity developer would have foreseen the economy, started Tower II sales a year ago, and began discounting 20%+ on both towers then. And after Oct’s financing crash, given up and rented out everything unsold until RE rebounds in 4-5 years.
Can any realtors on this site confirm this? Is there an opportunity to buy a 1 bedroom for under $600k or a 2 bedroom for under $800k?
I know I am being overly optimistic. Given the rental scenario may be a smart does anyone know if this has been considered or not? What about the Tishman has deep pockets theory, could they not choose to close out tower 1 and sit on 2 until they get the prices they are looking for? 99.9% chance it will crash and burn – again I may be overly optimistic but that is a pretty bold statement, perhaps a bit over the top. I believe that virtually no competiton, and limited inventory coming on the market in the near future may help prop tower II prices some no?
It is my belief that Tishman can wait it out if they choose. It is also my belief that they expected to make money on the project even if the SF market had not had such a big run up… my understanding is most long term developers assume a 3-4% yearly price appreciation. I don’t remember when this project was thought up, but long enough ago that I can’t remember. If you can find some comps from back during the permitting phase compound 4%/year and you’ll get some sense of how low they may be willing to go.
A smarter Infinity developer would have foreseen the economy
Yeah I know, right? What a bunch of dopes.
I nearly bought a few months ago. Offered 7% below asking and they accepted right away. Didn’t sign the contract due to a dispute. Haven’t found a better building (I love the neighborhood), recently went back to look at inventory and was shown many units not previously shown before. Asking prices were still way off the market. Units on the 28th floor or so >$1,150 per square foot.
Refused to show floor plans in the new building. I can’t understand why they would refuse to open the new buidling while the market continues to slide.
They will definitely take 20% below asking since they have barely reduced the asking. I’m waiting for 9 months when prices will be 40% below current asking. It will happen.
So can anyone confirm that they have actually purchased for 20% off? 20% off is a pretty big deal so if it was offered I would think at least one person would take the bait?
Does anyone know how and when sales prices are typically made public for new construction? What about refi’s for the same property? Where could one find this info?
They are not promoting prices much less than before. If you think 20% off is a good deal, then go submit a bid for that. They will take it.
Anybody that buys into this market is a fool. Perhaps those talking of buying haven’t noticed the steep rise in unemployment, the steep decrease in consumer spending, the crisis in the financial markets, and the lowest consumer sentiment on record.
But hey, if you still don’t see it that way, instead of giving your cash to a developer, save yourself the trouble and just put it all in one big pile and set it on fire. At least that way you won’t be underwater on an overpriced property in 12 months.
It is my belief that Tishman can wait it out if they choose
Possible, but difficult to know. people have often said that Tishman (Infinity) and CB Richard Ellis Investors (ORH) have deep pockets. The problem is that they may have deep pockets but still have cash flow problems.
I have never read Tishman’s balance sheet or cash flow statements so have no idea how they’re doing… but we can’t just assume that they’re fine because they’re big. they rely on investors (through their multiple investment funds) and likely rely on banks as well to help fund operations, in addition to their cash flow generated through operations. what is the current relationship of Tishman with its banks and investors? what is its cash flow like? I dunno, but it is important.
as example: GM had tons of cash and blew through it in just a few years. this isn’t to say that Tishman is GM (it isn’t),just to say that “lots of cash” isn’t necessarily enough.
also:
Right now there is an unintended consequence of the govt bailout- it is DELAYING people from purchasing. Think about it, would you bother sigining a contract now when the govt is about to put out a 4.5% fixed 30 year mortgage????? of course not! You would be a fool to buy now. Just wait for a month or two until the 4.5% mortgage comes out and then buy. I would guess most intelligent people who want to buy will wait… it’s not like prices are going to go up anytime soon. If you wait you get a cheaper price AND a lower mortgage.
if Tishman were smart (which they aren’t) they would wait until this 4.5% mortgage occurs, and then they would open Tower II immediately with lots of fanfare. Huge signs that say “Take advantage of Historically Low rates to buy a piece of luxury!!!!” it’ll be the biggest bump they’re going to get for quite some time IMO.
but they’re not that smart. if they were Tower II would have been on the market for 1.5 years already. it is my opinion that Tishman made an enormous blunder by not selling Tower II as soon as sales in Tower I slowed precipitiously. even now prospective Infinity purchasers are all waiting for Tower II. few want Tower I anymore, it is yesterday’s news.
The longer they delay this, the further we get into the downturn. Is there anybody who thinks that Tower II will sell for more in 2009 than it would have in 2007? or that Tower II will sell for more after huge reductions are needed in Tower I? Or that Tower II will sell for more after it’s been a RENTAL community for a few years? you’ve got to be kidding me. Yeah, I’ll buy a condo for $2M that used to be a RENTAL! hahahaha. Does the Papasan and other assorted dorm furniture go with it?
macroeconomics are important (despite what many people on this blog have told me over the years), and macroeconomics does not favor real estate, nor will it for some time.
that said: there may be a “surprise” over at Tower II. Perhaps they markedly changed the layouts? maybe now it’s more studios and 1BRs? or perhaps more 3 and 4 BRs? different mix? anybody know? and why the secrecy?
deep pockets or not, Tishman showed an astonishingly poor ability to forecast its own market. if they did that all over the world their deep pockets might be a little sparse.
I am going to admit something–this is my favorite building. I won’t buy at 20% off, but if these guys get serious and go to 40% on a nice building two view unit. I’d be tempted. At that price one would think my risk would be confined to 5-10 years of depreciation at 1-3%. At least I hope.
When it gets to 40% off, things will be so bad that no one will even consider buying!
Face it: this building is going to sell 30% of the units and then convert to rental. During the time it stays as a rental, if you need to sell, you won’t be able to because no lender will finance your buyer in a building that is 70% rental. You’ll be limited to all cash buyers who will realize your limited market and demand a very large discount.
Re: “Right now there is an unintended consequence of the govt bailout- it is DELAYING people from purchasing. Think about it, would you bother sigining a contract now when the govt is about to put out a 4.5% fixed 30 year mortgage????? of course not! You would be a fool to buy now. Just wait for a month or two until the 4.5% mortgage comes out and then buy.”
Ex-SFer,
I continue to wonder why no one has asked what happens If I get a 4.5% mortgage but need to sell when mortgage rates have moved bac up to 6%, or higher.
Wouldn’t that mean my buyer would need significantly more income to pay the same price I paid? Seems like another bubble being inflate.
Cary:
you bring up a good point, HOWEVER I don’t believe that most people can see that far ahead.
For instance, people couldn’t see this obvious logic in 2005 when we had (then) generational low interest rates. during that time it was “buy now or be priced out forever”. as soon as interest rates went up… problems began.
the govt is hoping to re-engineer another housing boom along those lines.
so although it is true that the 4.5% mortgages will be a short term stop-gap measure at best, I also think that it may work short term because people don’t understand the ramifications of what follows. besides, the govt can just guarantee 4.5% interest rates forever, right? that’s what a lot of people believe anyway.
in general, the people making the various bailout proposals either don’t understand markets, or purposefully mislead due to other reasons (politics, connectedness, etc).
just like AIG. To imagine that they sold the AIG bailout with stupidity like “the taxpayers might make a big profit on AIG!!!”. but people believed that tripe too. just like they believed raising Fannie/Freddie’s conforming limits would help. or bailing out Bear Stearns wouldn’t cost the taxpayer anything. or countless other ad hoc bailout “logic”. in the end, there is no logic to any of this. sad really.
but I wasn’t trying to turn this into a criticism of the 4.5% mortgage… only to state that one problem with the 4.5% mortgage is that it unintentionally is putting buyers on the sidelines as the 4.5% mortgage looks to be for PURCHASES and not refinancing. the difference between 4.5% fixed and 6% is a lot of cash when it’s a million dollar mortgage. so a prospective buyer would be an absolute fool to buy prior to the 4.5% mortgage rollout.
“as the 4.5% mortgage looks to be for PURCHASES and not refinancing.”
Bingo. The goal, as it has ALWAYS been, is to slow down price declines so as to “trap” people into paying on assets that the USG knows are going to go down in value (they must – as it is now I hope becoming clear). Every year the borrower continues to make interest and principal payments is another year of “sunk loss” that will make walking away that much harder. They will also engineer period inflation or hyperinflation scares. Real estate might not be working out just now (and it really hasn’t for more than 5 or 6 years on a rental equivalent basis), but just you wait!
A corollary to this goal of course is to get new purchasers to commit their own $$ as downpayments. Once they put their own money into the game, loss aversion among the vast majority of non-professional investors (and the vast majority of professional investors, too, I’d add) will keep them paying on the assets as they decline.
Periodically, the USG will step in to selectively “bail out” those who are either (1) so upside down on an asset they actually put down some cash on or (2) have negative equity but could be suckered into continuing to make payments in excess of rental FMV if the payments were lowered a bit. This is done to support the main goal and corollary identified above.
I’ve used this conceptual scheme for well over 2 years now to anticipate what is coming. It seems to be working, and the trend is your friend!
As people serf themselves down the asset ladder, they look increasingly to government to “save” them and “salve” their pain. This suits the policy makers just fine. Anyone who thinks that ruinous 50% declines in SF housing values would result in civil unrest and widespread rejection of governmental legitimacy hasn’t read too many histories of the Depression.
If ask is $1,200/square foot and a reasonable price is $700/square foot, then 20% off of the ask is still 35-40% OVER PRICED.
“I’ve used this conceptual scheme for well over 2 years now to anticipate what is coming. It seems to be working, and the trend is your friend!”
Oh, what do you know LMRiM? You said you bought oil at the end of last week, and it’s only up 10% in a half a week, for an annualized 1000% gain.
I mean really, can’t you do any better than that?
I’m only speculating and don’t have any direct knowledge but surely the possibility of renting Tower II is in the mix…
Separately, does anyone know if the Tree Top units are being discounted even more than Tower I? (There are a couple of really nice 1BD plus DEN floor plans…)
LMRiM,
In your opinion, when is the right time to buy? What are the signs I should be looking for? Rent vs. Buy? Mortgage rates? I’m on the sidelines at the moment, but could jump in at any moment. Right now seems like exactly the wrong time, but the promise of 4.5% has tempted me. On the other hand I can recognize the wisdom of what you, Tipster, and others are saying, so what would you do if you were in my shoes?
“I mean really, can’t you do any better than that?”
OT ALERT
LOL, tipster, thanks for that. I actually bought the double bull derivative scam, DIG (I noted that I liked that instrument for small scalp trades less than $100K total position in another thread).
I bought DIG at $21.97 on that Friday morning (I’d have to go and dig up a T&S report to find the exact fill time). It hasn’t even settled yet (settlement today) and it’s trading $30.65 as I type this. Up 39.5% so far, and I’m trailing a 7% stop loss (based on last sale). Annualized: 827 BILLION % (based on 3 day gross return compounded based on 250 trading day convention – the preferred measure of hedge fund scamsters everywhere 🙂 )
Should have done more $$ (the lament always when we get lucky), but as it is the small bet would already cover more than 6 months’ rent at a nice place like this:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/apa/950957813.html
BTW, that is a very nice place for a sensible family in an absolutely great location with an unbelievable view (Bay Bridge, Downtown SF, Marina, GG Bridge, Mt. Tam), and more than 1000 sq ft of decks to enjoy it from. It couldn’t rent at $4500. The SF Bay Area property market is going to crack like an egg.
@ missionite – rent this place in Tiburon for no more than $3500. Buy in two years if you’re sure you want to stay in the Bay Area/SF for at least 10.
I’m also wondering if anyone has any first-hand knowledge that renting Tower II is under consideration. Given the low rents (relative to purchase price) and high carrying costs from debt service and HOAs (and lost opportunity costs), this would not seem to make any sense at all. Selling for 1/2 of original Tower I asking prices still seems to pencil out better than renting them out unless one expects the downturn to be short and that far higher selling prices can be had in the near future. I sure wouldn’t take that bet, and I don’t think Tishman would either. This is a nice building and a convenient location. But the market for condos — or for anything in this price segment — has tanked. Construction and financing costs are now sunk — all they can do is damage control at this point, and a fire sale to get rid of the units appears to be the best (least bad) option and thus the most likely.
missionite: I know that you asked LMRiM, but I would honestly say that now is not the time.
There is still a chance of depression something along the lines of 1929 or 1873. I can’t think of a single job that is 100% safe right now. In times like these cash in liquid instruments is security IMO.
right now we have disinflation/deflation worries. so long as that is the case there will be few (if any) assets that appreciate noticeably. During that time your cash becomes MORE valuable over time (if deflation exists) or your cash will lose less value than other assets (if it is disinflation)
There will IMO come a time when the govt over-does it, and we will see rapid inflation again. I’m not sure where (what asset class) we’ll see it, but we will. it will be similar to last summer when gas and commodities were booming. it will all be explained as rational, but when you start to see marked asset appreciation then you know that the inflation has started. it is my thought the govt will not be able to reverse the inflation in time and we’ll see super inflation (but probably not hyperinflation like in Zimbabwe)
at that time I’d buy something (maybe a house, maybe gold or oil, maybe foreign currency, but some asset), because it may be the start of the destruction of our currency.
I have no idea when this will happen, heck it might not. it depends too much on what our govt does.
that said:
if you can find a really cheap home you love then this is less of an issue. (for instance, my house cost 1x household annual salary, and I can pay it off in cash today if I chose…)
I’d still be careful about buying into cooperative living arrangements (coops, TICs, condos, etc) because then you rely not just on yourself, but also everybody else to remain solvent. not fun to buy and then be surrounded by foreclosures and have to bear the full cost of building upkeep since your neighbors can’t.
OT alert!
Thanks for the advice guys. LMRiM, I’ve actually looked at that place on craigslist, and I’m going to take your advice quite seriously.
Right now we’re paying $1800/month for a Mission 2BR+office with laundy & off street parking for two cars, but no yard, and only 1200 sq ft. Our 4 year old heads to kindergarten in September. We’re trying to decide whether we send him to private school in SF (at $24k a year), or rent in Marin (with an increase in rent, but also possibly get a yard and more space in the bargain) and do public school. Right now I think we are leaning towards the latter.
The third option is to buy, but as much as my wife yearns to do so, I just don’t see it making much sense… yet.
“I’m only speculating and don’t have any direct knowledge but surely the possibility of renting Tower II is in the mix…”
Maybe they should move the Tower II site to Miraloma Park.
Honestly- my opinon is its not the right time to buy. The govt is going to engineer inflation but it will be short lived once tbonds start to rise.
What’s teh approach if you want to live in infinity?
Do short term leases, rent–then wait for
1) Prices in RE to stabilize or rise for at least 8 months in a row.
2) Wait 18 months if you want to be extra sure as that will allow for any temporary price changes the govt might be able to engineer.
Beware of a false upturn in the financial markets because once bonds start to rise the governments ability to stimulate will come to an end and that we are on our own (sound of birds chirping in forest)
as for the markets-
my plays are industrials (obama) commodities, oil/ gold and short tbonds for the next few monhts. Once my tbond short starts working–ill be going short all those inflation trades.
thats the plan right now at least
“We’re trying to decide whether we send him to private school in SF (at $24k a year), or rent in Marin (with an increase in rent, but also possibly get a yard and more space in the bargain)”
That’s a no brainer, missionite. Reed is a wonderful place for K-2, with great kids, great facilities, and good teachers. Flip around the website, and look at the pictures of the kindergarten classes here (click on teachers’ names for individual classroom sites):
http://rusd.marin.k12.ca.us/reed/kinderteam.htm
If you haven’t seen that rental property in person, I recommend going there on a nice day like we have today. Don’t bother with the realtor – you can walk all around and see what you need to before having to deal with any nonsense. Only real downside to that place is that it sold for more than $1.1M in 2002, and so prop 13 tax is in excess of $17K. It’s tougher to negotiate the cheapest deals when the owners are having to pay so much in tax. But it’s failed to rent for a long while at $4500 and now has been lowered to $3900. The market is imploding here and people are getting scared, so time is on your side. If you do make the move, try to do it in Spring (before the school year ends) if possible. Rental demand should pick up a bit in the summer for the next school year (but who knows how much lower prices and/or rents will be by then?).
You can pick up smaller 3/1 type houses in the flats (Belveron) for more like $2500/mo ($2750 wishing prices), so that might be an option too.
Anyone paying $900K+ for these Belveron crapshacks (or more than $1.5M for that rental I highlighted) is mentally ill.
the lack of transparency is really off-putting. buying a home is already stressful enough without having to do extra homework to figure shenanigans by the developer. if it weren’t for socketsite and insight from the posters, one is completely in the dark about prices.
they should open up both buildings and stick a price tag on the door on each unit and let people visit whichever they want.
Condoshopper–I think in the end that’s why these buildins end up in auctions per my earlier comments.
the market becomes so convoluted buyers are scared to buy without a lot more information and an open bidding process is the only way to cure that. otherwise they sit on the sidelines for fear of getting taken to brown town
Anyone have a guess as to what % of owners at the Infinity Towers use their condos as primary residences?
The standard lack of transparency served sellers and realtors well when the market was hot. They could tell a would-be buyer anything (already have 10 offers, 80% pre-sold, 25 people have picked up disclosure statements) to make you think you have to buy now and at a higher price, and there was no way to verify any of it so buyers just went along. But now that the market is slow — extremely slow — the lack of transparency is exacerbating the slowdown. Nobody knows what or how much is available for what, and so as cooper notes even those who might actually be willing and able to buy just sit it out for fear of being had. Who wants to pay $X for a 2/2 to find out your neighbor only paid $2/3X?
Not to thread hijack but…
@missionite,
As someone born in SF, and raised in Marin you can’t go wrong there. I can’t justify the price of private in SF when the public schools are so good in Marin. At least they were for me.
the lack of transparency is really off-putting. buying a home is already stressful enough without having to do extra homework to figure shenanigans by the developer. if it weren’t for socketsite and insight from the posters, one is completely in the dark about prices.
Yes, the real estate market, for all the information out there, is still not an efficient market (if it were, we’d have total disclosure on prices, real estate commissions would not be 5-6%, title insurance would be cheaper, etc).
Which is why I think it sometimes defies rational analysis–people get emotional about their real estate in a way they don’t about stocks, for example. And that’s why they behave irrationally at times.
If the fed is going to intentionally turn on inflation to address national debt and falling house valuations, doesn’t it make sense to lock in a mortgage on an overpriced place at a low interest rate?
I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around this – is it better to have locked in a long-term note before inflation, even if it’s priced at a premium, or to wait until the asset is priced correctly but after inflation decreases the value of the money we have on hand?
Locking in now assumes that wages will inflate at rates close to everything else. That seems doubtful.
What do you guys think?
you people make things to hard on yourselves.
just lock in every 50 points or so –whenver the math makes sense to refinance. i heard today you could get 5.25.
“…doesn’t it make sense to lock in a mortgage on an overpriced place at a low interest rate?”
If you believe that home prices will rise at a rate greater than inflation, this may make sense. Many believe that home prices and wages cannot keep up with inflation though.
Re: “If the fed is going to intentionally turn on inflation to address national debt and falling house valuations, doesn’t it make sense to lock in a mortgage on an overpriced place at a low interest rate?
I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around this – is it better to have locked in a long-term note before inflation, even if it’s priced at a premium, or to wait until the asset is priced correctly but after inflation decreases the value of the money we have on hand?
Locking in now assumes that wages will inflate at rates close to everything else. That seems doubtful.
What do you guys think?”
Will,
I think that depends on how “overpriced” the house is, what interest rate you can get, how long you intend to live in your home, how you could mangage if your income is impacted, and what interest rates are when you want to leave.
IMO, hardly expert, 4.5% mortgages do not justify SF housing prices.
Good luck in your decision.
@ Cary
FWIW, what’s a more attractive property:
A 800K sales price bought with a 4.5% 30 year fixed
–or–
(now you are selling this, prices have dropped and inflation is up)
A 400K sales price bourht with a 18.5% 30 year fixed?
Under a high inflation scenario, it will be very difficult for you to sell, should the need arise, because borrowers will be facing huge mortgage rates. And if you think a 18.5% mortgage is fiction, just look back to the early 1980s. Sellers couldn’t give their properties away…
Great location. Terrible floor plans. Who wants a $1,000 / sqft. condo that doesn’t permit a dining room table? Long term, this project will be a disaster. At a 50% discount, these make a great pied a terre, but not a home. Horrible waste of a great location.
Whenever I get the itch to post a comment here (or, on any other site for that matter), I always try to make it a point to add who I am in the context of the issue being discussed. If anything, it helps people understand where I’m coming from and weigh in any any potential biases I might have, esp. on points where there may be some disagreement: i.e. the whole “consider the source,” thing.
Denis, I’m curious: where’s your perspective(s) coming from? It seems like you have a consistent theme in your posts whenever there’s an Infinty article: great location ruined by terrible floor plans, over priced, and a very intense dining room table fetish (paraphrasing here). Likewise, some of your other peers: denise and Denis Rodman share the same sentiments. You obviously have an interest, but from what angle?
My angle: an Infinity resident!
anyone else getting solicited (phone calls/letters) by the Infinity sales team?
i was told that they would only accept 200K less than asking for a place in the 1.4 range…for now at least. on the bright side, it seems as if they are getting lots of offers in the 400-500K less range.
Has anyone heard any updates on Tower Two? I know they’re giving tours — any word on what the interest has been like? How do the prices compare to Tower Two? What are the odds that Tishman will institute an across-the-board price cut like the Millineum just did?
do you think Tishman will give a price cut to all the early people who bought retroactively. they simply f’ed early buyers for “believing” in the project by selling months later at FIRE SALE prices. Yeah, sounds unrealistic, but they should.
exSFer – apparently tower 2 isn’t move-in ready and won’t be until Spring… so selling a year ago wasn’t really an option unless they wanted to take deposits and have everyone walk at the last minute ala ORH.
i’ve said this on other threads… new construction in the SOMA/SB area is like buying a new car… the moment you drive it off the lot it depreciates by 10% (nowadays by 20% or more). So why not buy last year’s model which is much cheaper. Tower 1 is already last year’s model… crazy.
My advice for tower 1 is to call every 3 months with your same low-ball offer (stay top of mind). Eventually they will either take it, or a year or so from now the original owner (or rather their bank) will sell it to you at your price.
Continuing the conversation: Confidentially Speaking About The Infinity.