Last month 76 Caselli returned to the market on 8/8/08 with a list price of $2,288,800 ($269,200 under what it was listed for three months prior). Our questions at the time: “Will those triple eights be auspicious? Will it be enough to make tipster jump?”
Apparently not (on either account). As a plugged-in reader notes, yesterday the list price for 76 Caselli was reduced to $1,999,900. That’s what “tipster” gets for waiting.
∙ Listing: 76 Caselli (3/3.5) – $1,999,900 [MLS]
∙ Eight Eight Eight On Eight Eight Oh Eight: An Auspicious Return? [SocketSite]
∙ Our First And Second Thoughts For The Recently Reduced 76 Caselli [SocketSite]
From my prior post:
“That’s a first class job and a reasonable price in a great neighborhood. They really did everything well. The only thing missing is the market….If I didn’t think I could get something like this next year for even less, I’d jump on it.”
All I have to say is:
That’s a first class job and a reasonable price in a great neighborhood. They really did everything well. The only thing missing is the market….If I didn’t think I could get something like this next year for even less, I’d jump on it.
This site is very boring without Fluj.
Disagree. His incoherant, hyper-sensitive, inaccurate comments brought the level of discourse down to a particularly low level.
Cmon folks. fluj left because someone outed his real identity. I for one am at least glad he *really is* a RE person as he claims.
I’m convinced some of the other frequent posters are not who/what they claim they are.
All in good fun, but it’s kind of catty to talk about someone who has left the building.
[Editor’s Note: fluj had been “outed” long ago, but now back to the property at hand. Or at the very least the stairs…]
I like fluj too and think that some people didn’t like to be countered. The glass doesn’t always have to be half full or half empty. If it were all so simple, we’d all make the right decisions all the time and we know that isn’t the case.
Here’s what I wrote about this property:
“My data for the past 1.5 years show average $psf for Caselli as about $765 psf, using all available data points. Most of these “comps” were extensively renovated, including one that appears to be much nicer than 76 Caselli. [snip]
….since 76 Caselli appears a little nicer on average than the recent neighborhood “comps” but the market has deteriorated a bit, I bet it goes for average – $765 psf, or $2.145M.
Posted by: Satchel at August 10, 2008 2:33 PM”
https://socketsite.com/archives/2008/08/eight_eight_eight_on_eight_eight_eight_76_caselli_retur.html
I was wrong! I guess it’ll be lower (no one is going to overbid $145K on a stale listing). Who would have guessed that I would be too OPTIMISTIC about a piece of SF property?! I guess we amateurs really don’t know what we are talking about!
“I guess we amateurs really don’t know what we are talking about!”
Yes, but the sellers are agents and they know exactly what is going to happen without no doc loans and when the 3/1s start blowing up. They are wisely bailing out now.
fluj left? I missed all the drama..
And imagine Satchel admitting to be too bullish… 😉
But what about all those 900 sf “comps”??
Ironically the last thread on this house (Foolio’s 900 psf reference) was one that really sank fluj’s credibility in my eyes (and I suspect the eyes of many who care about accurate reporting of facts). The lengths to which he went to try to cover up his mistakes rather than just admitting that he had been lazy and reported inaccurate numbers got completely ridiculous towards the end.
it was pretty clear fluj simply reported the data directly from the mls and that it was a small sampleset
Fluj took it on the chin because he was the only person, among a sea of bears, that was willing to present any evidence that S.F. real estate may not be quite as bad as described. While he did selectively quote MLS or other data, I don’t think he lied about what he put forward, even though he did have his spin. This site loses appeal without a contrarian viewpoint, whether you concur with it or not.
For once I agree with you, Recent ORH buyer!
Recent ORH – I don’t think anyone here is accusing fluj of intentionally lying (though yes, he was clearly picking the numbers that bolstered his case). It was just a surprise to some of us to learn how lazy/sloppy he was being with the numbers that he was throwing out. I definitely agree that his contrarian viewpoint made the discussions more interesting, but it was disappointing to learn that the “data” he was throwing out was often useless at best.
‘it was disappointing to learn that the “data” he was throwing out was often useless at best.’
I think ‘often’ is an unfair characterization. There seems to a be a specific instance where he may have been sloppy, and this may not be the only example, but [IMO] these are the exceptions as opposed to the general rule.
This place is quite nice. but again the essential problem that I THINK we’re going to see again and again is financing problems. in the end, despite what San Franciscans think, there are very few people who can truly pony up huge downpayments for these homes. the downpayment with traditional financing for this is $400,000!!!!
it is exacerbated by the economic environment. The tech companies have struggling stock prices (so the stock options aren’t worth as much), venture capital is taking a beating, hedge funds are getting slaughtered, the banking sector is in shambles. The typical “rich” San Franciscan will most likely be wary of taking on a lot of debt right now.
not to say this place won’t sell. i think it will at some point, but I can’t hazard a guess as to pricing!
===
As for fluj, I also miss him as he offered a different perspective.
right or not, too much agreement is dangerous as it causes a lull. why do you think all the major financial experts are “surprised” with this downturn? it’s because they all used the same models and made the same assumptions and listened to no contrarian advice.
luckily we still can get some data from FSBO and others as well. but fluj will be missed (by me).
on a side note:
I believe there are far more pictures on the MLS listing this time compared to last time. The RE agents seem to be in general doing a much better job marketing the properties.
I remember days gone by when it would be a poor quality cell phone photograph. now we get 36 pictures of the place, of high quality.
the place is gorgeous, almost every room is nice. I could definitely live out my days in this place (except for the stairs when my joints give out in my 90’s, but that problem can wait!)
Caselli is frikkin fabulous and this is probably the most grand house on it. That this isn’t selling below $800 sq/ft means the game is over.
At the same time, this is a return to older conditions. This is an unusual and grand property priced above those nearby. Buyers who will dump this much money into a house are rare, so it should be expected to fester on the market for a while until someone who really appreciates its austentatious nature comes along with bags of cash.
Recent ORH – I think we just have different standards. What he was doing on the thread in question would be considered unbelievably sloppy in my profession, but I understand that you have a different perspective.
Did this house get pulled off the market? After all the assurances that fl*j gave that nice houses on Caselli could command $900 psf “easy”, did this one just fail to sell at $700 psf?
[Editor’s Note: It’s in contract.]