We know better than to publish any more statistics that we haven’t compiled ourselves (much less “average” sale prices). But why should we let that stop us? From Herth Real Estate’s recent newsletter:
Double digit swings (in either direction) are more likely a factor of mix rather than the market, and simple averages really aren’t the best measure of actual market appreciation or performance. Regardless, a few more data points for your consideration (and debate).
∙ It’s Not Only The Leaves That Appear To Be Falling In San Francisco [SocketSite]
∙ Herth Real Estate: Newsletter [herth.com]
Average price may not be very useful esp. on the high end where the odd $65m mansion skews the figure. Median?
So, are we not admitting that prices did indeed go up in 2006? I have my own Newsletter from Pacific Union, with very similar numbers for 4Q06 vs. 4Q05.
The literature talks about +6% YoY in SF. Sounds about right. I’ve been saying +5-8% for prime properties this year, and I’m glad these stats and newsletter buttress my argument.
2007 is going to be even better due to pent up demand, a tight labor market, wage inflation, and the Fed pausing or cutting rates.
Owner
So a broker’s newsletter and an increase in “average sales price” is your proof that the market is up? Strong work “Owner”.
I’m going to have to echo SocketSite: “averages really aren’t the best measure of actual market appreciation or performance.” But if you must, notice that the District 7 “average” sales price was up less than 4% for both homes and condos. That’s about the rate of inflation. At the same time, the average “home” sale price in District 8 was down almost 15% which you’ll probably choose to discount as an erroneous statistic while simultaneously touting the others as “buttressing your argument”. And a quick average of all ten districts comes out to an increase of a little over 2% for condos and a decrease of almost 1% for homes.
I’m an owner as well, but hopefully a little less arrogant or delusional.
Since when was inflation 4%? Inflation is running closer to 2%. 2nd, the inflation argument is pathetic. As a renter, I am not keeping up with inflation at all… I’m falling further and further behind, esp when my rent continues to go up.
There’s no arrogance in owning. It’s just a fact. When a neighbor on my block sells for 7% higher than prices last year, I call that pretty darn good.
Good luck, but denial is not a river in Afrida.
Great, so 2% over inflation. That’s 2% less than the cost of borrowing for that “leveraged” investment and 1% less than what’s offered on a basic savings account. And you seem to have skipped right over that question with regard to district 8 and the ten district averages.
But you are right, there is no arrogance in owning. Just in signing your comment “Owner”.
“Since when was inflation 4%? Inflation is running closer to 2%”
Yeah, if you believe the government numbers. For a plasma TV and a new laptop inflation is perhaps 2%. How about energy, education, healthcare, housing? I think real inflation is >10%.