In 1997 the single-family home in “excellent location” at 4019 Mission sold for $260,000 having been listed $265,000. In 2002 it appears to have traded for $599,000. And in 2006 the “Great Bernal Heights…home” sold for $865,000 having been listed for $849,000.
Yesterday 4019 Mission was listed on the MLS as a short sale for “$650,000.” Two warranted bedrooms up, two unwarranted bedrooms below, and one quick reminder that perhaps it really wasn’t all that different here.
∙ Listing: 4019 Mission (2/2) 1,825 sqft – “$650,000” [MLS]
Let’s just short-circuit things here.
What do you expect:
It’s on a busy street
It’s a dangerous location
It’s a short sale so it doesn’t count
There’s no view
There’s a tenant
It’s near the freeway
It needs a lot of work
You’re not going to do well with only a four-year hold
You should look at the 2006 asking price, not the selling price, and it went for $16,000 over asking
They overpaid, hey it happens
Good one. Will you promise to correct yourself too? If so I think I speak for everyone when I say you can do every single post from now on.
How many down-market sales are routinely invalidated as statistics by the property being a short sale (AT’s #4)?
We bought our place in early 2005, also in Bernal. I distinctly remember the mortgage broker being surprised that we had actually sat down and put together a budget, and done some basic homework on different types of loans. He said, “Almost everyone who comes in has already put down an offer, and wants me to figure out how to get them a loan they could afford.” Now those are winding up as short sales…
True enough, most places are up this decade, but San Francisco is up more than most:
http://www.forbes.com/2010/12/06/housing-price-decade-personal-finance-gains-losses-cities.html
“Only” up 43% this decade, behind New York, Boston and LA.
So, now that everything from 2003-2010 is in the toilet, we’ve sunk to going back to the year 2000 to make our favorable comparisons? Too much!
BTW, NVJ, that works exactly in the opposite direction you are intending. The more people who can undercut the 2003-2010 crowd, the faster prices fall.
What you are saying is that there is plenty of room for the market to fall, merely by long term holders being able to easily price under 2003-2010 purchasers.
And if you check out redfin, you’ll find that is, in fact, the majority of the new listings these days. More than half are people who purchased before 2003. They have all given up the hope that things will “come back” and are now in the process of bailing out.
Sucks!
Pardon my ignorance, but can a property sell with “unwarranted” rooms? I thought you had to have property up to code when you sell it. Please enlighten me.
Most lenders will require a minimum of things to finance you, like a livable place, workable kitchen, this kind of stuff.
But I think you can purchase a property in any shape you want if financing is not an issue.
Unwarranted spaces mean you could get in trouble in the future. Like if you rent out a non-official unit/room, or if you want to condo-convert, or if a neighbor wants you to remove a non-permitted recent addition.
In short, it can be a liability.
IANAL, but in addition to what lol wrote, my understanding is that it’s not inherently illegal to sell a place with “unwarranted” additions, as long as the seller discloses that the additions were built without authorization and/or a permit. Most reputable real estate agents will strongly encourage sellers to fully disclose such matters at the appropriate time.
If the current seller is the one who actually did the unauthorized addition, then it’s going to be difficult for them to claim that they were not aware that the addition was illegal when and if they get sued by a buyer.
“and one quick reminder that perhaps it really wasn’t all that different here.”
riiight…so that product in that location is worth
3.5 times the national average house price?
Price drop to $549,000.
Now below the 2002 price.
Case shiller says 2002=2000. A price under its 2002 price is 1999 or before.
Now account for the 1800 sellers left hanging at the end of last year, and I think we head well before your 1999 prediction because if it sells for asking, it means we’re already there; and yet there’s more pain left.