CFAH

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 6% on a year-over-year basis in February, down 7 sales from 123 in 2010 to 116 in 2011. At the same time, the median sales price for single-family homes fell 7 percent, from $695,000 in February 2010 to $645,000 in February 2011.
As we wrote last month following a 13 percent decline in median, expect proponents of representing changes in median as changes in value to quickly find religion (at least for a month or two).
With respect to condos, listed sales volume increased 7 percent on a year-over-year basis in February, up 11 sales from 149 in 2010 to 160 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 13 percent from $649,000 to $565,000.
And while total listed sales volume in San Francisco increased by 4 units (1.5%) on a year-over-year basis in February, listed housing inventory ended the month up 187 units (15%) versus the year before.
Real Estate Matket Trends Report [rereport.com]
SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]
Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing “Prices” [SocketSite]
San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: February 28, 2011 [SocketSite]

Comments from Plugged-In Readers

  1. Posted by sfrenegade

    New trend in trailing 3 months of inventory for this year. In other years, the inventory level rises from December to March, but not yet this year, likely because of that particularly low number in December. The columns are month, inventory per MLS, sales per MLS, months of inventory, and trailing 3 months of inventory:
    Jul-07 1157 470 2.5 2.3
    Aug-07 1187 464 2.6 2.4
    Sep-07 1408 346 4.1 3.0
    Oct-07 1532 452 3.4 3.3
    Nov-07 1393 408 3.4 3.6
    Dec-07 1077 355 3.0 3.3
    Jan-08 1053 215 4.9 3.8
    Feb-08 1159 292 4.0 4.0
    Mar-08 1329 318 4.2 4.3
    Apr-08 1381 382 3.6 3.9
    May-08 1491 478 3.1 3.6
    Jun-08 1496 426 3.5 3.4
    Jul-08 1470 478 3.1 3.2
    Aug-08 1388 393 3.5 3.4
    Sep-08 1544 332 4.7 3.8
    Oct-08 1789 381 4.7 4.3
    Nov-08 1788 241 7.4 5.6
    Dec-08 1405 265 5.3 5.8
    Jan-09 1189 141 8.4 7.1
    Feb-09 1500 192 7.8 7.2
    Mar-09 1648 238 6.9 7.7
    Apr-09 1622 277 5.9 6.9
    May-09 1685 328 5.1 6.0
    Jun-09 1630 389 4.2 5.1
    Jul-09 1569 452 3.5 4.3
    Aug-09 1352 495 2.7 3.5
    Sep-09 1448 392 3.7 3.3
    Oct-09 1460 435 3.4 3.3
    Nov-09 1346 395 3.4 3.5
    Dec-09 1131 412 2.7 3.2
    Jan-10 909.5 226 4.0 3.4
    Feb-10 1116 247 4.5 3.8
    Mar-10 1361 414 3.3 3.9
    Apr-10 1491 317 4.7 4.2
    May-10 1599 480 3.3 3.8
    Jun-10 1697 446 3.8 3.9
    Jul-10 1799 385 4.7 3.9
    Aug-10 1594 360 4.4 4.3
    Sep-10 1797 341 5.3 4.8
    Oct-10 1936 372 5.2 5.0
    Nov-10 1834 326 5.6 5.4
    Dec-10 1408 404 3.5 4.8
    Jan-11 1255 275 4.6 4.6
    Feb-11 1399 276 5.1 4.4
    Inventory is from MLS via Socketsite. Sales are from MLS via rereport.com.

  2. Posted by Misha Weidman

    I am agnostic when it comes to medians. They’re a useful measure if applied cautiously. At the same time, the scatter chart I produced when trying to see if one part of the market was actually doing “better” than another supports the idea that prices per square foot have very little correlation with where the properties sit on the modest-luxurious scale: http://www.pegasusventures.net/wordpressblog/2010/11/18/size-doesnt-matter/
    While we’re dissing the metrics, we could say the same about the limited value of taking point-to-point measurements (e.g., YOY) as indicative of where the market really is.

  3. Posted by marko1332

    Editor, would you be able to do a trailing twelve months and trailing three months to see the long and short term direction of the market while smoothing out the seasonality of month to month data?

  4. Posted by sfrenegade

    [Months of inventory] peaked at 5.6 months in June, July, and August 2009 and troughed at 3.6 months in May and June 2010. It has been rising since that trough and could be peaking again.

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