Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 3.8% over the past two weeks versus an average of 5.8% for the same two weeks over the past four years.
Current inventory levels are down 5% on a year-over-year basis but up 16% versus the average of the past four years (up 23% if you exclude 2009) and up 46% as compared to 2006/2007. Inventory of single-family homes in San Francisco is up 2% on a year-over-year basis, up 2% versus 2008 and up 34% versus 2007 (we don’t have the split for 2006).
31% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (almost double what others are reporting) with the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (58) or seeking a short sale (138) holding steady at 13% over the past two weeks.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 4/12/10 [SocketSite.com]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]
Nice. Price pressures are a function of inventory, and this says things are continuing to head down, though not in a free fall. The first half of 2008 was pretty plat for prices. The first half of 2009 was way down for prices. So this tells you that we’re somewhere in between.
On the other hand, interest rates are lower for upper end properties, but somewhat harder to get than 2008, a bit easier than 2009. Financing for jumbo conforming is still essentially nothing down, though now you have to qualify (and standards were being tightened at this time in 2008), and incomes and employment are down.
I don’t think the average of the past 4 years is as meaningful as looking at the individual years: 2008 was different from 2009 and they were different from 2006 and 2007. But the trend is more like 2008/2009 than 2006/2007.
I’m surprised to see inventory above 2008, given all of the housing supports that are there now that weren’t there in 2008. That tells me the market is very weak, and as the federal supports are withdrawn, we may see the trend down intensify.
So then, last spring, when things didn’t get anywhere near as cheap as the likes of you and others predicted, that’s the touchstone? Because we’re beneath that inventory number. And the market is probably twice as good, volume selling wise.
to me there is a noticeable change slope of the Spring inventory curve in 2009-2010 compared to 2006-2007.
it may simply indicate that those people who want to sell are putting their homes on the market earlier in the year compared to times past.
this is not an uncommon strategy in down markets or early in the recovery phase.
I would want to pair this data with sales volumes, to see if this rising slope is because of decreased sales OR because of more inventory coming online or a combo of both.
There is also substantial ghost inventory, and banks are increasing rates of foreclosure processing. That the speed of correction remains slow says little of how far markets will go.
I don’t think we are anywhere near 2009, and seemingly better off than 2008 also.
I am really surprised, that for a view that was so frequently espoused on this thread, the importance of sales has been forgotten as part of the inventory/sales equation. You know, months of inventory and all that. How quickly ideas and concepts once held to be crucial are forgotten once they no longer give ‘the right answer’.
In fact, from http://www.rereport.com/sf/ron/ listed sales seem to be up around 67% from 2009, and up 30% from 2008. This means that months of inventory would be way, way down compared to 2009, and down compared to 2008 also. (although I agree not back to the peak 2006/07 years yet).
So then, last spring, when things didn’t get anywhere near as cheap as the likes of you and others predicted, that’s the touchstone?
They got cheapER at a certain rate. The rate of decline has certainly slowed, but it hasn’t stopped. Yes, many of us didn’t see the massive government intervention occurring, but that has only served to slow the rate of decline, not fix the underlying cause of the decline, which is that we built too many houses to match a false set of financing rules that no longer apply.
Because we’re beneath that inventory number. And the market is probably twice as good, volume selling wise.
Volumes of sales don’t necessarily indicate where the market is headed. That just speaks to whether sellers and buyers have the same set of expectations. There were way more shares of pets.com stock sold on its last day of existence than there were SF houses sold in the last year. The high volumes didn’t stop prices of pets.com from falling to zero.
No, volume alone doesn’t tell the tale. Prices are also up. Both average and median indicate that. Wow. You played the pets.com card — a k a the “full of s***, on the internets, card” pretty quickly.
Really, houses =/= pets.com
At no point in time could you live in or rent out for someone else to live in your pets.com stock. Sure if houses were nothing but electronic records on the books of DTC you could use pets.com as a warning story but they are not, so please just stop it with the pets.com comparisons.
Hee hee, I love it. Fluj calls “s***” then says without irony “both average and median indicate” prices are up. We all know the s*** value of that. And let’s see those stats again. Of course, on an apples-to-apples basis, we see prices continuing to decline. Rising inventory — i.e. supply — only indicates continuing downward price pressure (which is why the ed. posts this chart).
How long does Socketsite’s pet troll get to go the ad hominem route?
BTW, who’s “full if it” is amply demonstrated over the past three years on this site, although not always under the same screen name.
Hee hee, I love it. Fluj calls “s***” then says without irony “both average and median indicate” prices are up. We all know the s*** value of that. And let’s see those stats again. Of course, on an apples-to-apples basis, we see prices continuing to decline. Rising inventory — i.e. supply — only indicates continuing downward price pressure (which is why the ed. posts this chart).
Oh, you mean like in the thread of last week where average and median are on full display?
The thread — https://socketsite.com/archives/2010/04/actual_san_francisco_foreclosures_up_109_qoq_up_911_yoy.html#comments — where your nonsense was roundly defeated time and time again, by myself and others? (See skiruman’s end post.) ???
And “anon,” pick a name. Have a point that isn’t merely contrasting someone, without content. Say something that isn’ “ad hominem,” “straw man,” “troll” a link to wikipedia, or some other noisome dodge. Or beat it.
Right, fluj, your simply repeating a falsehood created a “round defeat.” Ahh, you’re funny. Skiruman’s last post was helpful, if incomplete, and certainly proved the big lie to the selective stats you tried to use! Keep it up, flujie — I can always count on you for a good laugh!
Here are a couple of good, recent apples that show the current price trend:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/2775-Union-St-94123/home/1594922
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/990-Green-St-94133/unit-3/home/2032940
Keep selling your snake oil, flujie-boy.
Tough to say that residential real estate prices have fallen in the last year quarter over quarter. Prices basically flat with volume up by 60%. Here is the actual data again. I also have all the data broken out by district and the main factor in condo pricing being off slightly seems to be pricing for District 9 (SOMA) is off by 6% while everything else is trending slightly up or flat or you can make your own analysis.
SFR Q12009 Q12010 %Change
Avg Sale Price $1,067,113 $1,174,897 10.10%
Median Sale Price $810,000 $825,000 1.85%
Avg. Price/Sq. Ft. $625 $629 0.72%
Total Sales 219 336 53.42%
Condos Q12009 Q12010 %Change
Avg Sale Price $769,347 $ 764,060 -0.69%
Median Sale Price $663,000 $663,000 0.00%
Avg. Price/Sq. Ft. $655 $647 -1.28%
Total Sales 227 383 68.72%
Also, as a math major, I will add to my comment above that statistics and data don’t tell the entire story. Sales volume up by 50%+ is interesting though.
So, AT, your argument is that due to one house on Union Street (that dropped ~11% since 2007) you’re saying the market continues to fall?
Sure, median and average ain’t the best measure, but they are a hell of a lot better than looking at one house here or there.
well someone thinks prices are falling, of course these are national numbers but you get the idea …
First American CoreLogic: House Prices Decline 2.0% in February
It will be interesting to see if the CSI goes the same way for Feb. Especially considering Shiller’s own comments regarding the raw vs. seasonally adjusted numbers of the CSI.
“Sales volume up by 50%+ is interesting though. ”
It’s also hard to guess that mix was consistent from 2009 to 2010, given that sales volume is up by so much.
I am really surprised, that for a view that was so frequently espoused on this thread, the importance of sales has been forgotten as part of the inventory/sales equation. You know, months of inventory and all that. How quickly ideas and concepts once held to be crucial are forgotten once they no longer give ‘the right answer’.
REPornAddict: you’re being disingenuous, or perhaps you didn’t read my post?
I said:
I would want to pair this data with sales volumes, to see if this rising slope is because of decreased sales OR because of more inventory coming online or a combo of both.
Posted by: ex SF-er at April 26, 2010 10:21 AM
obviously this is another way of discussing months of inventory. (sales vs inventory).
Perhaps it’s seasonal, but just walking around my neighborhood (Haight/Cold Valley) I’ve noticed a flood of Open Houses/ For Sale signs. Much more than usual. Outside of the newly developed TIC’s hitting the market, many of the places I’ve seen were places were previously listed, taken off and now relisted. I believe prices will continue to decline but not as steep as last year. Another 5-8% over the next few years and then flat for the next 3-6 years.
Mike, that’s consistent with my experience as well. I see more open houses than every before, but there’s still a dearth of great properties. The good ones are going quickly (within a week or two of going on the market) and the rest are just sitting.
Not sure what that means for the market overall, but your guess seems right.
ex sf-ER, was not aimed at you.
In fact it did take me 6-7 minutes to find this years and two prior years listed sales data, and your post appeared while I was still finalizing mine (yes, I am that slow,,,)
Surprised that tipster, to name one, missed the importance of sales volumes in his analysis though as the months of inventory stat (or looking at sales and volumes combined) was something that he was always really hot on when listed sales were down compared to the one or two years prior.
cool beans.
carry on then.
🙂
Re: what ex SF-er said about months of inventory, I do wonder what something like this chart would look like for SF:
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2010/04/19/selling-o-c-mansion-wait-3-years/62985/
Orange County is a lot bigger and has a lot more people than SF; I’m not sure how big the data samples would be for SF.
REPa, Active listed inventory isn’t telling us the whole inventory picture.
When sales shoot up and inventory rises instead of falling as it should, the listed inventory doesn’t show you the number of people actually wanting to sell. Instead, it tells me that people who want to sell are holding homes off the market (or their agents are convincing them to do so), either until the spring selling season or until other homes listed before theirs have had a chance to sell and exit the market.
When sales shot up in March, there were more than enough sellers who had been waiting on the sidelines to list their homes, and then some. So you can’t just quote months of inventory as anything meaningful because you don’t know what the actual inventory really is.
So you can’t really identify the months of inventory, you can only identify the months of listed inventory, which isn’t very useful.
A lot of sellers hold their properties off the market until the spring, so this is no big deal. But if sales unexpectedly shoot up, but listings shoot up even faster, that’s not a good sign no matter how many months of *listed* inventory there are.
We may be able to rely on it later in the year, but there is so much distortion that it is hard to know what the right comparisons are. For example, if, just before the tax credits die off, the months of inventory drops very low, does that mean prices will fall when there is almost no demand because it all got pulled in?
The last tax credits had little effect here. Will that be the same this time?
It’s hard to really know, so you can’t look at traditional metrics when you have a potential time based distortion. The same issue could occur in reverse: if sales drop off in May but inventory doesn’t rise, we may have simply accelerated some sellers into April, for example, so again, months of inventory won’t really apply when it spikes up.