Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 11.6% over the past two weeks and is running 19.8% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 8.3% for single-family homes and 28.5% for condos/TICs).
Overall inventory is up 65% versus 2006 while sales continue to trend down.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 1/21/09 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In December: Down 17.8% YOY [SocketSite]
I would guess that much of this is due to the “Super Bowl” phenomenon.
in times past, people would start to list right after the Super Bowl.
but in hard times, it seems that everybody tries to jump in a little earlier, so the Super Bowl Phenomenon may have shifted earlier.
I’m interested to see what sales in March-May will be like (whichil will be reported May-July). that’ll be a huge key to the market.
My guess has always been that each successive year of the downturn you’ll see more listings and less sales, which results in larger inventory. we’ll know that RE has turned when you start seeing lower inventory and increased sales. (albeit it may be at a lower price point).
we’re starting to see this in some of the areas first hit by the downturn.
Is this the SF MSA or just SF?
Thanks!
[Editor’s Note: San Francisco proper (not MSA).]
And this is just half the equation as ex SF-er notes. Anybody care to post January sales numbers? From what I can glean from various (incomplete) sources, it looks like we barely cracked 100 sales for the month, and according to Redfin nearly twice that many units were listed just in the past week. So SF now has at least 10-12 months of inventory, and perhaps double that for the $1 million-plus price range. And inventory continues to grow far faster than sales. The “turning point” is a long, long way off.
“but in hard times, it seems that everybody tries to jump in a little earlier, so the Super Bowl Phenomenon may have shifted earlier.”
This is exactly what Mrs. Foolio and I noticed this past weekend. Tons of new listings and open houses.
Super Bowl phenomenon? I’d call it an “Obama Bounce” craving. There has been a little spike in sales in SF, largely because of the low end. A teeny weeny spike. Problem is, everybody thinks they’re gonna cash in, now, while they still can. We’ll see.
My realtor advised me to wait to list my home the week after the super bowl. So mine is coming online this week too… although, in the SF Bay Area, not in SF the city.
Here are some preliminary MLS stats for Jan 09. Keep in mind that these counts will rise as additional Jan sales are reported.
SFH: 75 sales, $608K median price, $482 psf
Condo: 58 sales, $660K median price, $606 psf
Total: 128 sales, $629.5K median price, $544 psf
Of note (in addition to the record low sales count) are the 2003-like overall median price, the sub-$500 psf for SFH’s, and the $608K median for SFH’s (which may be the first time houses were cheaper than condos). Of course there were mix and district effects. District 10 shows 26 sales of SFH’s at a $525.5K median. Dist 1-9 show 49 sales of SFH’s at a $713K median (which is really low). The Dist 1-9 median for SFH from Jan 08 was $1,020K.
FSBO, are these closed (recorded) sales or pending?
unearthly – all of the stats are for closed sales per the MLS.
Thanks for the numbers. FSBO. Mix changes are certainly skewing things downward — just like they skewed the numbers higher from mid-2007 through 2008 when the bottom dropped out on the low subprime end. But the bottom is clearly now dropping out on all condos and on anything priced over $1M (or even a little less than that — think conforming loan limits). Makes the apples-to-apples discussions on SS all the more important to really get a sense of broader trends. Buyers have now all but stopped buying at the higher price-points. The big question is how far will sellers drop prices to meet the new lower demand, or will they (or CAN they) just suck it up and not sell at all.
The agents I’ve spoken with are unanimously predicting an increase in inventory, and they’ve been saying this for months. They’ve said that there is a significant amount of “pocket inventory” out there – people who want to and need to sell but are reluctant to list until they’re confident the unit will sell.
Anecdotally, I’m seeing more units on weekends and on online listings. In some areas of the Mission and Western Addition, you see the open house signs on every corner – sometimes multiple signs on a corner.
The pricing is really starting to come down now – and not those $2,000 reductions we saw in November. Foot traffic is starting to increase a little. But for units to start moving, sellers have to be more realistic and accept the new world we’re in. I think pricing on the middle and upper tier needs to come down at least 30% for units to start moving. Judging from the phone calls I’m starting to get from sellers, I think reality is starting to hit them.
Thanks for the info, FSBO. Could you also pass along the non-D10 condo sales #?
Thanks FSBO. What’s amazing is that the realtors will scream mix, mix and more mix, but adjust for the mix (at least in part by pulling out the D10 numbers) and the numbers are still way down.
Foolio – Of the 53 condo sales reported (so far) for Jan, only 2 were in D10. (Note that the 58 condo sales that I noted above was a typo – it should be 53.) The 51 sales in D1-9 had a median price of $663K while the two in D10 had a median (and mean) price of $237.5K. 5700 Mission #1 sold for $315K and 137 Marlin Ct #57 sold for $160K ($117 psf).
tipster – As we saw with Noe last week, I’m sure that all of the districts will be down. I’ll post some stats by district soon.
Have you ever even been to D-10? Do you know what it looks like? Condos? The “Condo Story” is starring D-9.
evil landlord, D9 had 10 condo sales in January – 19% of the city’s total. D5 had the most sales at 16. I’ve been to D10. I’ve even been on Marlin Court.
Sales count is but one verse of this song being sung. What have D-9 condos asked for lately?
Thanks, FSBO. And just another attaboy for you. Unlike others with MLs access, you consistently provide useful info without bias or motive.
It’s much appreciated.
Silent Spring… coming soon to the SF Bay Area.
Its interesting given the comments above and d10..a few random observations of mine..
1) d10 actually shows relatively good YOY median sales price – in part of course, because 09 was so bad for this district. But, in fact, other than d7 where there were only 2 sales, d10 performed the best YOY!
2) If you took the SFHs by district and ranked by price the district where the median sale was in January 2009 is…..d10! (I kid you not…)In Jan 2008 it was in d2 (Sunset/Parkside).
That is a HUGE mix effect.