Real Estate SubterfugeAugust 17, 2005
This is the kind of stuff that makes our heads hurt like a Slurpee induced brain freeze. Hell, we’ll be the first to point out that there are numerous reasons not to read too much into the July DataQuick numbers (it’s just one data point). But we take exception to the SFHomeBlog’s attempt to explain away the July sales decline by pointing a finger at discount brokers and too many ‘poorly marketed properties’.
The figures released by DataQuick represent the number of transactions that closed in July (and most likely originated in May or June). If anything, the impact of additional opportunistic sellers entering the market, whether ‘poorly marketed’ or not, should be to increase the total number of transactions (as they say, ‘even a blind squirrel…’). It would, however, impact the ratio of listings to sales. But that’s not the point.
And if, as the SFHomeBlog asserts, the ‘real’ inventory is 50% of what it was in July, then the DataQuick numbers should actually dip once again in August (it’s damn hard to sell inventory that doesn’t exist). And that being the case, we should all expect to see a strong up-tick in the median sales price as supply dwindles. We’ll keep you posted.
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