Considering the purchase of an investment (rental) property in San Francisco? Thinking of leveraging an interest-only loan to finance a short-term speculative buy? Do yourself a favor and read The PMI Group’s latest Economic and Real Estate Trends report. The PMI Group is publicly traded residential mortgage insurer and is in the business of accurately measuring market risk.
Even if you don’t agree with their assumptions or conclusions, it’s worth understanding the underlying analytics PMI employs to evaluate future market risk and home-price appreciation (or depreciation). And based on their analytics, they believe that the San Francisco home market has 39.5% likelihood of decline over the next two years, and a ten-year price appreciation of 2.3%.
· Economic and Real Estate Trends: Spring 2005 – pdf [PMI Group]

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