As we wrote in June:
With the 1,058 square foot single-family Noe home at 489 Day selling at 3 percent under asking for $875,000 this past February, it’s probably safe to assume the 1,068 square foot (according to tax records) 477 Day is priced to attract “multiple offers!” at $659,000.
Regardless, we think it’s worth noting if you’re looking for perfectly livable Noe Valley homes under nine (and assuming 477 truly is a cosmetic fixer as
advertisedlisted of course).
The sale of 477 Day closed escrow this past Friday with a reported contract price of $767,000. That’s 16 percent “over asking!” but $108,000 less than the sale of 489 Day.
Granted, 489 Day had been remodeled with a new kitchen and bath as noted in its listing language, although neither are noted in its permit history online. But eyeballing the finishes at 489 Day, we’d be surprised if it had been more than a mid-five figure job.
∙ One Day In Noe Under Nine (And Another Listed Under Seven) [SocketSite]
∙ Sorry NAR, But No [SocketSite]
Socketsite bearishness isn’t really schadenfreude, it’s hope – that prices will go much lower, enabling the purchase of a great San Francisco property for very little. But having so many people praying for prices to drop, and grasping for any evidence for lower prices, paradoxically represents a very bullish signal.
[Editor’s Note: It’s actually neither, and there’s no need to grasp, it’s simply an observation of the data and trends at hand. The cry of “schadenfreude” tends to be an incorrect interpretation (and perhaps rationalization) by some.]
Just as I predicted about a month ago here, this property would sell for well over asking. Great little house on a great street..lots of potential..a good buy.
“..enabling the purchase of a great San Francisco property for very little…”
I think that many people simply want a good SF property for a reasonable price. They were available before and will probably return after the decade-long adventure into fantasy land.
“But having so many people praying for prices to drop, and grasping for any evidence for lower prices, paradoxically represents a very bullish signal.”
Or perhaps just an affirmation that SF is a desirable location ?
At each step down from the bubble highs, there will be another cluster of buyers waiting in the wings to pounce on “deals”. The amount and ability of each cluster of buyers determines the rate of descent. When a sustainable affordability equilibrium is approached the market will be near the bottom.
“and grasping for any evidence for lower prices, paradoxically represents a very bullish signal.”
IMO, most SFers I know think now is a great time to buy and are looking for positive evidence to support that claim. The contrarian in me tells me this is very bearish. My instincts have served me well so far.
At each step down from the bubble highs, there will be another cluster of buyers waiting in the wings to pounce on “deals”. The amount and ability of each cluster of buyers determines the rate of descent. When a sustainable affordability equilibrium is approached the market will be near the bottom
It has not been a gradual descent since 10/08. The market is up from the first two quarters of 2009 so far this year.
Not sure the snarky sacarstic editorial title to this thread applies for this one…
Just because 489 Day sold for $875,000? 477 listed for $659,000 sold for $767,000. For a fixer this is a pretty strong outcome for the seller if you ask me.
If you are waiting for prices to drop so people can buy, don’t hold your breath. No one is forcing banks to divest themselves of their underwater properties. They need to take their losses out in the burbs and get on with things. Then prices can find their bottom.
there appears to be some schadenfreude .the focus on noe and soma listings ,both areas i thought gentrified during the bubble. investors hit these areas hard and now they are paying the price.seriously buying a noe valley home for the same price as st francis woods? have you seen the average household income in st frances woods to noe valley? check it out.
“The market is up from the first two quarters of 2009 so far this year.”
Geoff the realtor, aka fluj, I’d love to see any support for this statement. What are you basing this on?
I’m not going down that road again AT. Everyone who reads this site will find it a broken record. Because I’m not going do spend a half hour so that you can dispute average, median, targeted price points median, avg dollars per sq foot, median dollars per sq foot, or any other statistic that shows YoY price and/or volume increase. Only to cite the REreport within a few weeks when its nubmers suit you, despite the fact that it uses some of the same metrics. And I’m Geoff the friendly neighborhood realtorman, not fluj the bitter internet argument machine.
I figured you were just making it up. Fair enough — just an anonymous blog that some seem to be unable to stay away from!
Making it up? So you mean to say you don’t dispute statistics and also link to REreport? Must have been another AT, short for “Assistant Tipster” (way to set your sights high!). Clearly not you, but an imposter. I’ll call him Bobby the Incessant Arguetronic Android.
Volume YtD 2010 2653. Volume YoY 2009 2161. Avg $psft 2010 ~595, avg $psqft 2009 ~585, median 2010 709K, median 2009 680K.
Dispute away. Then link to REreport in a couple weeks even though it uses the same data.
OK? Keep it going. Why change now?
[Editor’s Note: Volume increases shouldn’t surprise and are in part due to a drop in prices. But be careful when citing changes in median and averages as proof of rising values as the mix of sales between and within most neighborhoods is currently play.]
“…At each step down from the bubble highs, there will be another cluster of buyers waiting in the wings to pounce on “deals”. The amount and ability of each cluster of buyers determines the rate of descent. When a sustainable affordability equilibrium is approached the market will be near the bottom.”
I agree. And I don’t think that we’re too far from bottom. And I think that some homes have found this bottom already with -30% peak adjustments. Others have found a knife catcher and aren’t quite there yet. I think if you can find a good peak comp in 07/08, adjust for -30% and purchase a similar home at those levels; you are very likely to break even and could eek out a nominal profit over a 5-6 year hold. By nominal, I’m talking about getting out what you put into the home excluding opportunity cost. This also applies to SFHs. Condos are a whole other story. The pain in the condo market is going to hurt for many many years I suspect.
Gotcha fluj — averages and medians all mixed up in the same post. And they don’t even reveal anything of note. Geoff is as predictable as fluj and anonn and Ken were.
Nobody is mixing up averages and medians, just because they’re sat next to one another. Obviously they are different metrics and I said so. I said you’d fault it, and you did, but this time you’re trying to say I said they’re all the same thing. Now go link to REreport next week like a good android.
And Ed, when I show specific neighborhoods and ranges they fault that too. You telling others to be “careful” is funny to me considering your Richmond post today was heavy handed to say the least.
I don’t need to speak realtor, nor do I need to rely on all kinds of charts and graphs and data..
Just walking around Noe, and I do that a lot, I see great properties, and I see a great neighborhood. This was one of them and it sold, just like I thought it would.
I decided to change my name again. Mild mannered Geoff has become none other than Realtorman!
Is this really a house? It looks like a garage with a bay window over it. I’m not seeing a “great property” here.
doelger style row house, the sunset district will sate your desire for “great properties” of this type.
Re: “great property,” think in terms of the lot. It’s south facing, on a very quiet a cul de sac, 25 X 114 lot, a good neighborhood, and an easy walk to Church st. I am perplexed by one thing, thought. Double bangers in the lead and a comparison to a house that has been remodelled is not “simply an observation.”
Socketsite bearishness isn’t really schadenfreude, it’s hope – that prices will go much lower, enabling the purchase of a great San Francisco property for very little.
If prices revert to historic medians, then there still won’t be any San Francisco properties available for “very little”.
But having so many people praying for prices to drop, and grasping for any evidence for lower prices, paradoxically represents a very bullish signal.
Markets moving up and down has little to do with the intrinsic values that markets approximate.
The intent of sarcastic double exclamation points by the editor in a post is schadenfreude, pure and simple.
[Editor’s Note: To quote Inigo Montoya, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” Had you stuck with simply sarcastic, then yes.]
Now we’re parsing out exclamation points? Seriously?
As I’ve mentioned before, I want good data on these things. Every post adds data as far as I’m concerned. I really don’t understand the complaints by people who seem annoyed by every price they deem unfavorable (and this can be bulls or bears). Facts are facts, and if you don’t like the editor’s tone, write your own blog where you can take whatever tone you like.
Also, is fluj the realtor trying to evade searching for his posts? I’ve seen geoff the realtor (who seems to have disappeared after being called out on it) and realtormon who has morphed into realtormom, grealtormon, and realtormong so far.
Yes and sarcasm from the top down doesn’t create an environment that caters to schadenfreude? Evade searching of posts? More like evade talking to people who think they know something, but don’t, and don’t have an opinion other than being contrary. See “pessimistic” report above.
This place came back last month listed at $1,695,000 and its now in contract.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/477-Day-St-94131/home/898524
The remodeling of 477 Day was done by this guy (from article linked on another thread).
Brendan Collins, owner of Collins Construction, buys “fixer” houses, remodels and expands them, and then sells them. Noe Valley, where the older Victorians and Edwardians are modest in size because they were built for working-class families, is particularly fertile ground because it is such a desirable neighborhood for families, he said.
Of course he doesn’t have DaFamily’s secret weapon. I get the impression that sparky-b is doing better than during the bubble as he doesn’t have to compete with all the ‘fast cash’ idiots these days.
EBGuy,
I wasn’t really even competing during the bubble. People were jacking up the price of fixers too much. I didn’t buy anything in Noe Valley in ’06, ’07 or ’08. Didn’t do much in other areas either. It is better now for sure, but I still think the cost of most fixers is too high. The future finished house price has come down much more than the fixer. But, you can find some stuff worth the effort now without banking on appreciation. So all in all, Yes it is better now than during the bubble.
Don’t know what secret weapons the Day street builder has. But it seems to me they are more powerful than mine, since that house was 1100 feet, they stayed in the envelope: finished the lower level, kept a big garage, added interior stairs and were able to make the house 2300ft. That isn’t a secret weapon it’s magic.