Once again, purchased for $1,030,000 in August of 2005 establishing a comp by which other neighborhood (District 3) single-family homes were priced and valued.
2924 19th Avenue returned to the market as a “short sale” at the beginning of August with a list price of $988,000. Reduced to $899,000. Then to $849,000. And now asking $799,000 (a sale at which would represent a 22.4% drop in value).
And while it is a rather busy location, it isn’t any busier than it was in 2005.
∙ Listing: 2924 19th Avenue (3/2) – $899,000 [MLS]
∙ The Comps They Are A Changing: The Short Sale Of 2924 19th Avenue [SocketSite]
This is a nice neighborhood, but a very busy street. These houses here are well set back from the “highway” so that helps a bit.
There was a LOT of fraud out here. Many recent immigrants and a very willing real estate industry designed to facilitate fraud. Take a look at this house on the same street (one block south of this 2924 property):
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco-County/3039-19TH-Ave-94132/home/1472788
That one “sold” for $1.6 million in March 2007 (with $1.4M+ in loans), and was just lost to foreclosure. Now, it’s for sale at $1.01M (and only a very stupid fool would pay more than $1M for it). So, only down around 37% – “nothing to see here, move on, move on”.
About this 2924 19th property, it has more square footage than indicated, so the $psf wishing price is less than $400. I wrote in the original thread on this that “fair value” is about $600K, and that’s generous. It still has another 25% to fall IMO from the current list price, and I hope no knifecatcher gets in the way of its well-deserved swan dive!
The traffic on 19th can be a bitch, plus half the year it’s foggy and you’ll have to put up with the noise of Muni going right by your house.
“The traffic on 19th can be a bitch, plus half the year it’s foggy and you’ll have to put up with the noise of Muni going right by your house.”
Yes, one has to wonder what the owners were thinking when they bought this property in the marina for 1M and then moved it down to a crappy location on 19th street.
Oh wait, it’s in the same place it’s always been. That’s the point. That’s why it’s an “apple”. If people are going to try to dismiss this data point and what it indicates about the market they’re going to have to come up with a better excuse than that it’s in a bad location.
But you have to accept that the buyer of this, to some degree, was stupider that almost everyone else. Because, they could have bought in West Portal for that price at that time, or at least in Inner Parkside.
That said, I think there is more value to the house Satchel values at $250K than this place. That neighborhood over time will improve and is at least quieter. This will always be on a highway and the most dangerous intersection. True value; $300K.
Sure, sure. The arguement that f**j made previously, that the owner overpaid in 2005 and the short sale represents a return to values that are more in-line with other properties in the area is plausible and supported by the data.
Of course, my interpretation would be that the buyers who overpaid are the ones who can’t sell when their loan resets and so blow up first.
“Many recent immigrants”
A common myth, debunked more than once on this site. The level of credit lending to purchase million dollar homes is not, and was not, obtainable by “recent immigrants.” Ask your friend’s British co-worker. You know? The guy who manages a division at Barclay’s? He couldn’t get a loan two years ago. Credit doesn’t transfer. It is domestic. Not happening now, or then. The worst is when you know-nots say “migrant workers.”
True, I agree with that. This thing can’t possibly sell even at the new price. Why buy this when you can buy:
409 Ulloa
5 bed, 3 bath, 2038sq.ft., $820K, Forest Hill Extenstion, 3 blocks from West Portal
“The traffic on 19th can be a bitch, plus half the year it’s foggy and you’ll have to put up with the noise of Muni going right by your house.”
“If people are going to try to dismiss this data point and what it indicates about the market they’re going to have to come up with a better excuse than that it’s in a bad location.”
Diemos where did the original quote dismiss the data point?
It was a comment about the house and particularly location.
Is every negative comment about a house which has lost value going to be met with “you are trying to dismiss this data point”?
very interesting and selective data mining on the favorite fence sitter site…
riddle me this tho…just b/c some got caught up in the frenzy of the past few years does that mean i’ll be seeing these kinds of price declines in the places that i’d actually want to live?
some idiots paid half a million bucks to live on the foggy hwy?
and now the prices are down by a third? so what?! where are my price declines in d5,d6,d7,d8?
oh, you’re telling me the dark and damp condo is now available again in those areas? c’mon socket site, lets see something good.
paco, for the record, what have you seen happening in d5,d6,d7,d8 in last 12 months and what do you see happening there in next 12 months? SS is just us trying to inform and learn.
Pure Apple to Apple.
Pure example of how overall unaffordability pushed all undesirable areas up.
Pure example of how buyers, sh!t-scared of being “priced out” (nice job salesmen) just priced themselves out of the up-coming affordable years.
“Is every negative comment about a house which has lost value going to be met with “you are trying to dismiss this data point”?”
Well … not EVERY one. But it’s part of a pattern that we saw the last time there was a thread on this property. People jump in to justify the price “… the lawn’s dead …”, “… it’s a busy street…”, “… it’s by the most dangerous intersection in the city…” ignoring that it was just like that in 2005. The one thing they don’t mention is the one thing that HAS changed. The crazy loans have gone away.
Paco’s version of “the REAL SF is different” argument that has been disproven about 100 times here.
Whoever help to pricing the house are Sxcker. They should price it $899,000 back in Jan, now they should price it $799,000 if they want to sell it seriously.
diemos, that doesn’t disprove the fact that this person made a bigger mistake than other people.
No Paco bashing, please. We lost f**j not long ago, I haven’t seen the genuine Sparky in a few days after someone threw legalese into his face. Beating people to a pulp is not helping anyone.
what would be fun is if someone digs up some old comments and post under the moniker “ghost of f**j”..
🙂
Paco’s version of “the REAL SF is different” argument that has been disproven about 100 times here.
Not true.
Bulls are an endangered species as the foundations of the RE sand castle crumble. The center towers are still holding but what are they without the fortifications?
Bulls will see their golden age again in a few years. And I’ll be happy to be one of them.
sparky-the-bull,
I won’t quibble with your estimate of $300K for fair value for this property if that’s what you believe!
BUT, the idea that just because it is on 19th Avenue it should be worth so “little” is a red herring IMO.
Admittedly 19th is a busy street – but the “dangerousness” of the “intersection” you are referring to is just NORTH of 19th and Sloat and that is largely because of no “gree arrow” turn signal on SLoat going northwest – I’ve driven through that intersection going west and east at least TWO THOUSAND TIMES from 2002 through 2008, so I really know this area. This house is south of that intersection.
If $300K is the fair value for this 19th avennue house, what do you think the fair value of the house (3068 20th Avenue) DIRECTLY BEHIND this one on 20th avenue is? This house is a much smaller 3/1, BTW, and it just sold (obviously these guys foolishly overpaid, and they will come to regret it) for $900K:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15196718_zpid
(Property shark gives the recent sale price, and note the foreclosure, sale to a “local” and then immediate flip for $100K profit to what appears to be a recent arrival).
There has to be some substitution effect in practice here. $900K is too high for fair value for the 20th avenue property and $300K is too low IMO for this 19th avenue property, but perhaps a 10-20% discount for like properties might be appropriate for the downside of being on 19th down here.
BTW, I mentioned recent immigrants as being a large component of purchases out here because it is true. It is not a statement of whether they can obtain credit easier or are more inclined to fraud (although I guess it could be read that way – sorry!). I mention it because recent immigrants are much less likely to have a good sense of historical prices, and hence are more likely to believe what a fraudster (e.g., a real estate agent, especially if that agent speaks the same language) tells them. I’ve SEEN THIS WITH MY OWN EYES. Additionally, such a recent arrival may have a less than sophisticated understanding about how the US home financing system works, and might think things like “cash back under the table” is a normal way of doing business. I mean, let’s be honest, if a US person went to Shenzhen China and decided to buy a house within 6 months after arrival, would you expect that person to be the savviest purchaser??
chuckie, i like to think of sf re in terms of an analogy.
think of a big sports stadium with good seats, sunny seats, far away seats and obscured view seats, next to the obnoxious visiting band seats, etc…
over the years the seats have become very expensive. long term seatholders are not giving up their tickets but more people want to get in. people start paying more and more for what is available; before you know it some are paying more for the bleachers than used to be paid for primo seats.
at this point the wise man says ‘i’ll just stay home and watch the games on the TV’ (rent vs. buy). and indeed the coverage on tv is very good. others get caught up in wanting to be there no matter the cost-‘i’ll get my tickets in a bad section and trade up later when these tickets get even more expensive’.
then it becomes impossible to finance the purchase of these tickets and prices begin to fall. and seats behind a column, in the wind tunnel next to the stinky bathroom don’t seem to trade at all. ‘but these seats sold for $$$/sq.ft last year’…
which brings us to our current scenario. many on this board will confidently tell you b/c the crappy seats are cratering you will soon be picking up 40yard line club seats from all those idiots who are now being forced to puke them at cut rate prices. just keep watching the game on tv and be patient, they say. ‘ wow, another pair of seats in the upper deck of the endzone just got foreclosed on- any minute now those good seat prices will be tumbling’ etc..
my take on it, chuckie, is that the good seats (d5,d6,d7,d8) are still oversubscribed. and those who want those good seats are still not about to go buy upper deck crappy seats no matter how good the price. in other words, if i can’t find a good seat and the only affordable options inside the stadium are on 19th ave or miraloma park then i’m going to watch this show on tv.
i could go on but i think you get my meaning.
“diemos, that doesn’t disprove the fact that this person made a bigger mistake than other people.”
Did he? As was discussed on the previous thread, he was 100% financed. The banks offered him a “Heads you win, tails I lose” opportunity and he went out and outbid everyone else to take that opportunity. Why would he care if he paid 1M or 1.5M or 2M. It wasn’t his money. And if the bet didn’t work out he could just walk away.
Recent immigrants also do not know you could get a decent house in Noe 10 years ago for less than 500K.
If $300K is the fair value for this 19th avennue house, what do you think the fair value of the house (3068 20th Avenue) DIRECTLY BEHIND this one on 20th avenue is? This house is a much smaller 3/1, BTW, and it just sold (obviously these guys foolishly overpaid, and they will come to regret it) for $900K:
So basically you choose to seize on the 19th Ave property on a busy intersection as exemplar. Meanwhile, you downplay the significance of the 20th Avenue sale as foolhardy.
This clearly displays the opposite point you are trying to get across.
You are still talking recent immigrant purchases as trend too. That is utter nonsense.
paco,
Interesting analogy. It would be perfectly valid if it were functioning in the void.
There’s a connection between what the lower/middle end of the market is spending and what the upper end is earning/worth. A lot of the upper end money is Tech/finance. Most of it new money.
Take NY today. RE prices through the roof, full employment 6 months ago. Where do you think RE prices will go if 10, 20, 30% of financial jobs are lost and if the upper crust loses 10, 20, 30% of its assets in a meltdown?
Everything is connected. Europe, Asia, US, Russia, Rich, Middle Class, Poor.
Take NY today. RE prices through the roof, full employment 6 months ago. Where do you think RE prices will go if 10, 20, 30% of financial jobs are lost and if the upper crust loses 10, 20, 30% of its assets in a meltdown?
How many top earners actually live in Manhattan full time? These guys have already been buying up metro r.e. at reduced prices.
fronzzz,
“Where do you think RE prices will go if 10, 20, 30% of financial jobs are lost and if the upper crust loses 10, 20, 30% of its a ssets in a meltdown?”
its all relative. if the fat cats lose do you think that the less well off will win? despite the world shaking deflationary storm that is around us i’m still not seeing any good cheap seats.
instead i’m reading on ss that all smart readers have been conservative w/$ and are just waiting to pounce. and still waiting…
paco, that’s pretty accurate as far as the last 12 months. What’s your feel for the next 12? And what would you advise me? Keep watching on the telly or get in before the good seats got even more expensive?
🙂
Interesting analogy paco but even in a stadium the “premium seats” account for 10-20% of the total inventory. I’m more worried about the 80-90% that make up the majority of “seats” in San Francisco and I bet those “luxury boxes” get cut with the economy.
chuckie,
my advice remains the same; don’t buy something crappy just to get in the game. don’t overstretch financially on something as illiquid as re. just b/c a pos on 19th ave is a ‘good deal’ should not make you want to live on 19th (or, a sewer rat that tastes like pumpkin pie is still a filthy animal).
as i’ve written on here before (and gotten deleted for some reason) i would say that there is no hurry to rush to buy right now, the risk of the market running away to the upside is v.v. slim. BUT, as i’ve seen over 15years of constant monitoring, when something good comes up you need to be ready to jump;
fortune favors the prepared.
figure out your wish list (good light, garage, garden, neighborhood, etc…) and try to match it to what becomes available. people run into problems when they compromise too much on their wish list just to get in the game. in other words, focus on what you want, not what is available.
chuckie aint buyin nathan
But paco the good seats cost so damn much… I will probably stay at the telly.
I always thought that if you went and watched a game in a good seat, you would have less money at the end of the game than what you had at the beginning of the game. Since about 1996, I have noticed that neighbors and friends who went to the game, had more money after the game than at the beginning of the game. After they watched the game, they went to their bank, picked up another check and went on a vacation. Something to do with the alchemy performed by magicians like Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill. Just when I started to realize that going to the games and watching in good seats is really an income side entry, not on expense side, the magicians are starting to disappear… Now I have to wonder who can afford the good seats? And what will the prices be?
🙂
michael,
my point is that i’m only interested in buying a seat (vs. renting it) if its a good seat. (d5,6,7,8 with light,pkg,not on fwy, etc…).
i do not want to live in a luxury high rise condo but if i did i would be waiting for a better deal. i don’t want to live in 60-70% of sf even for free.
i agree w/ satch that its much cheaper to rent than to buy; but at some wealth level you have to ask yourself what is important to your life. for me the answer is the stability of owning but i realize this is a personal choice. i choose to own, and i abhor the idea of some landlord telling me to move (or telling me anything for that matter).
putting it another way i ask the bears on this board-if your net worth is $1m+ do you think that real estate should be in your portfolio?
umm my comment wasn’t about whether this was a good purchase or not just about the location, I have driven by that house hundreds of times and I just wouldn’t live there. A few blocks up in west portal, sure it’s much nicer IMO.
6 months ago when I looked in SF (looking for 3/2) I didn’t see anything that was worth buying or that I could afford so I decided to rent for a year, as much as people say prices have dropped I am still priced out of the nice areas where I would consider moving to.
chuckie,
my opinion is that buying a good seat will be a better investment
than renting it, that buying a bad seat is a foolish idea, and that
renting a mediocre seat while not having any good ideas about where to invest the savings is the recipe for a mediocre life.
chuckie,
When the Giants are playing well, owning lower level seats at AT&T will pay for themselves – by selling unused tickets above face value.
When the Giants play like they have the last 4 seasons, you are lucky to get face value.
Overall, I think Paco’s analogy is spot on.
@paco
“chuckie,
my opinion is that buying a good seat will be a better investment
than renting it, that buying a bad seat is a foolish idea, and that
renting a mediocre seat while not having any good ideas about where to invest the savings is the recipe for a mediocre life.”
paco,
My opinion is that buying any seat at current valuations is a foolish idea. Unless, of course, you have money to burn. For the record, I’ll say that, if you bought in d5,d6,d7,d8 over the last 12 months or buy there over the next 12 months, you will be under water for at least the following 5 years, maybe even 10. Now, as to if anyone should listen to my opinions, and as to your point about having any good ideas about where to invest the savings, read on.
Did someone, on another thread, say that Lehman confessional is open? In my portfolio, I had $20,000 in Lehman senior bonds. I didn’t think Secretary Paulson was going to go the way he did. I was sure he will bail his buddies out. Wrong bet! I maybe able to sell the bonds for $5,700 now. My understanding is that, in bankruptcy, these bonds get paid first. I am hoping someone will comment on what to do. I do have some gains I will need to offset at year end.
wow chuckie,
i’m sorry to hear that you got burned by wall street.
for me, losing money in bonds is a double slap and i’d be pissed.
as far as your prediction
“For the record, I’ll say that, if you bought in d5,d6,d7,d8 over the last 12 months or buy there over the next 12 months, you will be under water for at least the following 5 years, maybe even 10”
i agree somewhat if you are talking about turn key retail vs. fixer with potential. and i really disagree if you are talking about places like the one i highlighted on another thread (602 broderick-9units,double lot, $1.6k)
Come on, the location ain’t so bad.
It is right across the street from Stern Grove. Golf putting greens right across street, tennis courts + Sava Pool 2 blocks away. 1 block walking distance from Stonestown mall and YMCA. Lowell High school within 2 blocks with more basketball court, tennis courts, volleyball courts.
Get the picture?
For a family with school kids, you have more recreational facilities within a 3 block radius than any house in SF.
Forehand: “Get the picture?”
What picture
. It is nightmare to back out your car from driveway to 19th ave.
. Sloat and 19th ave. is one of the most dangerous intersection in S.F.
. Serious accident happen almost every month.
. A 21 years old college girl killed while waiting to cross the sloat years ago
. This location give you no peaceful life
This thread is laughable, for both sides.
1. Take a look at its street view on google. The parking is in the back alley, not on 19th, so there is no “it is nightmare to back out your car…”
2. It is on the wrong side of the street to take advantage of the “recreational facilities”. That’s a busy corner and it is not safe to walk across the street. Going to the mall may be OK (cross 19th in front of the mall), but I wouldn’t feel comfortable with the 19th/Sloat crossing.
3. It is four LONG blocks from Stonestown and YMCA, 2 long blocks + 9 short blocks from Lowell, and all involves crossing 19th, I wouldn’t call them easy daily walking.
4. However, the location is great for commuting. It is close to muni (yet far enough to be away from the noise), close to freeway, and getting to downtown by local street is also easy (Portola).
John: “The parking is in the back alley..”
Thanks for the reminder, just overlooked it.
Try this, visit the house, get closer look on the flame of the windows, not hard to find inches thick of “Mercury Dust” sitting there.
Those small fine black little dust are from those vehicles on 19th ave.
Believe me, you don’t want those dust in your life.