According to a press release, the “14 luxury townhomes” at One Rincon Hill were “officially released” for sale this past Friday. The 14 townhomes range in size from 900 to 2,350 square feet, are “priced from $1.2 million to $1.8 million,” and will offer full access to the One Rincon Hill amenities (think pool, gym, barbeque area, etc.).
And perhaps we’re reading into it (quite literally), but we can’t help but recall the following sentence from One Rincon Hill’s Fall 2006 newsletter six months ago: “There are still more than 30 one-, two- and three bedrooms with great views available…as well as 13 luxury townhomes along Harrison Street, starting at $1.4 million…” Townhome #304 (a two-bedroom, two-bath plus den) is currently asking $1,200,000.
∙ One Rincon Hill’s Fall Newsletter And Update [SocketSite]
in this image the townhomes seem like such an afterthought. I much prefer the “vancouver model” where slender towers appear to rise out of a base of townhouses. Granted, the scale and location of One Rincon doesn’t really lend itself to that kind of treatment. But the great thing about Vancouver is that the townhouses enliven the pedestrian experience on the street, and at street level you hardly even notice the soaring towers above you. Still…this is better than an ugly parking garage wall, so at least it’s progress.
Most people bought at 1Rincon because of the price point and views. The negatives remain – location, traffic, etc…
To sell these townhomes at roughly $1000/sqft is way too high given all the negatives and lack of any views. And the units on Harrison will be facing the afternoon/evening traffic gridlock every day…
Also, seems the aura has faded a bit and with the rising inventory around the city I think they’ll struggle to sell these units.
The big question for me is the floor numbering. If they start at a high enough number, there may still be some great views from the 36th floor of these townhomes.
[Editor’s Note: Let’s not go there (please), but the first floor of #304 is at ground/street level.]
A $1000/sq ft townhouse on a freeway onramp? Er, no thanks.
Maybe these would appeal to the more earthquake skittish types, even though the bedrock underneath is a lot more stable than anything in Mission Bay or the Marina landfill-o-rama areas.
I can attest that the traffic on Harrison Street with folks trying to escape the City at the same time for a breather is pretty horrid on a Friday rush hour. I have my fingers crossed that the Rincon Hill Plan will dissuade folks from cutting down Folsom to Main to Harrison to try to get a jump on others onto the bridge. I’ll be the first to sign a petition to eliminate right turns off of Spear or Main Street onto Harrison. 🙂
Jamie
http://www.RinconHillSF.org
Many of the townhomes on Harrison has terraces or balconies.
In the evenings, you can sit out there and take in the wonderful gridlock, the lovely scent of poisonous exhaust fumes, and the soothing melody of honking horns and rumbling harleys.
hmmm thanks, but no thanks….
Are there floor plans posted anywhere?
[Editor’s Note: Yes, floor plans for the townhomes are available online (look under “Residences”).]
Are there any environmental scientist types that could chime in and tell us how high above gridlocked traffic does unsafe exhaust get? I suppose some bit of it gets hundreds of feet up there so the real question is at what height would it be “diluted” enough so that it would be safe?
Floor numbering aside, does 10 stories up have half the pollutants of 5 stories up? I would guess that the relationship is not linear and that at a certain height the exhaust would not be noticable and definitely not be unsafe.
Speaking of noxious (or should I say obnoxious) fumes, the posts that keep showing up time after time after time (and probably from the same exact people every) have just gotten so so tired. I mean, those comments might have actually had some substantive content to them the first 600 times that they showed on a 1Rincon topic, but at this point, as I said, it’s downright obnoxious and of no use to anyone. The building is well over 90% sold so face it, no one seemed to really care that the building was “built on an on-ramp.” So give it up.
However, my annoyance with the unoriginal posters aside, I do agree with those that say $1000/sqft for a townhouse is pushing it, at least at this point in the life of the Rincon Hill neighborhood. Maybe 5 years from now Harrison Street will be a fantastic street to live directly off of, but definitely not now.
I bought a great unit in the 1st tower with a great view for $800/ sqft, but I would never have bought anything at ground level for anywhere close to the price that they are asking.
It is interesting if the prices dropped on these, especially considering The Infinity raised their prices today.
“It is interesting if the prices dropped on these, especially considering The Infinity raised their prices today.”
Speaking of, does anyone know what percentage sold Infinity is at this point. Maybe they have raised their prices because they’re much closer to being sold out now.
Car exhaust will rise, especially on a warm calm day.
I can imagine it won’t be pleasant to live in one of those units on Harrison and I sure wouldn’t spend much time on the balcony. Also, the noise could be a serious issue so opening an window is probably not a option.
Kind of reminds me of the ground floor townhome units at 88 King St. I walk by there every day and rarely see anyone sitting on their terrace and never see any windows open.
“Speaking of, does anyone know what percentage sold Infinity is at this point. Maybe they have raised their prices because they’re much closer to being sold out now.”
Tishman and the Mark company wouldn’t raise prices if they weren’t confident on the market. And they certainly wouldn’t raise if they weren’t getting closer to selling out.
This actually bodes well for both Infinity and 1Rincon as they are still the only highrises around (Millenium, hurry up!).
And this also sets the precedence or basis for pricing on the second tower which looks to be higher for sure now…
“Speaking of, does anyone know what percentage sold Infinity is at this point. Maybe they have raised their prices because they’re much closer to being sold out now.”
I stopped by both 1Rincon and The Infinity on Sunday to show a family member the showrooms (I bought a unit in both buildings) and The Infinity was crazy. I’ve been in there many times and have never seen it liek this, there were tons of people, lots of couples, all ohhing and ahhing at everything the sales people said. My sales person spotted me and told me they were going to raise prices 2% this week, maybe the word got out and that is what it was all about.
1Rincon was a little quieter than it usually is, but maybe that is because there are not too many units left.
Do developers really raise the prices of units that have failed to sell? I wonder.
They may raise the asking price, but I suspect that you can cut yourself a nice deal (well under the original asking, with some upgrades thrown in) at the Infinty right now – just like any other project that is trying to close out.
“1Rincon was a little quieter than it usually is, but maybe that is because there are not too many units left.”
I think that’s right because I asked the same question the other day and they only have like a little over 20 units left. Really, the only thing keeping them busy these days is getting ready for the 2nd tower sales (for which I think they’re now taking deposits – but don’t quote me on that) and trying to sell the townhomes.
“Speaking of, does anyone know what percentage sold Infinity is at this point. Maybe they have raised their prices because they’re much closer to being sold out now.”
I wouldn’t exactly say sold out. I would say “taken in a 5% deposit” Let’s wait and see the mortgage train wreck unfold – then we can talk about “sold out”
I don’t know about the intersection of First and Harrison, but I can say that backed up traffic around my humble condo at Main and Harrison is rarely sitting there backed up waiting to get on the bridge. Usually Fridays after work … and whenever the bridge traffic is backed up for atypical reasons.
I haven’t lived in Rincon Hill long enough to know what its like when Baseball season starts …. that could be obnoxious. Brace yourselves for the week including July 4th and then the week after with the Major League Baseball Homerun Derby and All-Star Game. I admit, I’ll probably wander around just looking for celebrities attending the All-Star activities.
“Do developers really raise the prices of units that have failed to sell? I wonder.
They may raise the asking price, but I suspect that you can cut yourself a nice deal (well under the original asking, with some upgrades thrown in) at the Infinty right now – just like any other project that is trying to close out.”
With a year to go before people move in to the infinity, I really doubt they will be making any deals. With 1Rincon almost full, they willa ctually likely be seeing an increase in demand as really the only tower in the area with a number of units to choose from.
So, developers are having no problem getting the prices that they are looking for. With that in mind, why are we seeing so many area projects being delayed in terms of rollout (North Tower – One Rincon Hill, Californian on Rincon Hill, 325 Fremont, 340 Fremont, 1 Hawthorne, 45 Lansing, 201 Folsom, etc)?
I would think that with such “hot demand”, developers would be pushing these projects ahead full steam.
SF_Res at 2.25pm, I don’t think they’re taking deposits for the 2nd tower at 1rincon. Last week, a salesperson there said they’ll start late this year or early next. And pricing will be 10-20% higher than tower 1.
At least that’s great news for tower 1 buyers at both Infinity and Rincon…
“I don’t know about the intersection of First and Harrison, but I can say that backed up traffic around my humble condo at Main and Harrison is rarely sitting there backed up waiting to get on the bridge. Usually Fridays after work … and whenever the bridge traffic is backed up for atypical reasons.
I haven’t lived in Rincon Hill long enough to know what its like when Baseball season starts …. that could be obnoxious. Brace yourselves for the week including July 4th and then the week after with the Major League Baseball Homerun Derby and All-Star Game. I admit, I’ll probably wander around just looking for celebrities attending the All-Star activities.”
This whole traffic getting on the bridge thing is so much ado about nothing. I currently live on Beale between Folsom and Bryant and now that they’ve opened up Beale, the traffic can get to be pretty heavy on Beale now but only during rush hour (5-7)…
However, one minor point that no one seems to be picking up on, THAT’S THE ONLY TIME THAT IT’S EVER ANY ISSUE, and of course I can’t speaking for anyone else, but most nights I don’t even get home until 6:30 or 7:00 so what do I care? Plus, someone mentioned this earlier but once all of the retrofit stuff for the bridge approach is finished, the traffic flow getting on and off the bridge should be much better.
It’s funny because you’d think from the way people have been complaining on this topic that there would literally be continuous rush hour traffic up 1st and Harrison toward the bridge 24 hours a day, but it’s just not so.
On the baseball season point, I’ve lived in Rincon Hill for 3 baseball seasons thus far and it’s actually not the neighborhood has it really bad when the Giants are in town. It’s the folks in Mission Bay that take the brunt of it. I’ve tried getting over to that Safeway by the ball park once during a Giants home game and boy did I learn my lesson on that.
“So, developers are having no problem getting the prices that they are looking for. With that in mind, why are we seeing so many area projects being delayed in terms of rollout (North Tower – One Rincon Hill, Californian on Rincon Hill, 325 Fremont, 340 Fremont, 1 Hawthorne, 45 Lansing, 201 Folsom, etc)?”
I don’t think demand is “Hot” as in 04-05. But at least units at Infinity and 1Rincon seem to be selling at a steady pace. I think that’s healthy for the market.
And those other developers are smart. They’re not going to flood the market and cannibalize each other. They’re probably taking a wait and see approach right now.
Also, don’t forget, we have the Millenium Tower coming online later this year. That’ll be another 500+ units on the market, plus Infinity 2, SomaGrand etc…
I completely agree with SF_Res … one evening per week I see a traffic backup on Harrison at Main Street … otherwise, clear sailing most of the time. Sorry if I dilluted that point in my last post.
It does sound like developers are being very smart about their building while others are signing contracts. Heck, the new Transbay Transit Center is a 13 year project …. though most of it is supposed to be done in 8 years. I’m excited for the day when cafes and shops line Folsom Boulevard between 2nd and The Embarcadero … we may just have an officialy Rincon Hill neighborhood at that point and can escape being lumped with “SoMa” or “South Beach” 🙂
“My sales person spotted me and told me they were going to raise prices 2% this week, maybe the word got out and that is what it was all about.”
The last sucker rally for the “hot” spring 2007 season. I am looking forward to the $700 / sq ft prices for the second tower with the better views. Enjoy the ride.
“The last sucker rally for the “hot” spring 2007 season. I am looking forward to the $700 / sq ft prices for the second tower with the better views. Enjoy the ride.”
Hehe… Yes, we’ll enjoy the ride. Sorry you’ll miss out 😉
Seriously now, naysayers have been predicting a crash in SF since 2004 and it just hasn’t happened. Yes, there’s pockets of weakness here and there, but prices crashing 30-40%?? It’s never happened so where’s your justification?
Condos can easily drop 30-40% in SF during a correction. Any buyer at these new buildings should be prepared financially for this sort of event whether it happens or not. It is definitely a risk.
“Seriously now, naysayers have been predicting a crash in SF since 2004 and it just hasn’t happened. Yes, there’s pockets of weakness here and there, but prices crashing 30-40%?? It’s never happened so where’s your justification?”
Nobody can predict the time of the crash. However, common sense suggests that $800 / sqft -> $1000 / sq ft -> $1200 / sq ft -> $1400 / sqft -> $1600 / sqft -> … cannot go on forever. And it won’t 🙂 Enjoy the ride!
“there were tons of people, lots of couples, all ohhing and ahhing at everything the sales people said.”
Let’s see…all the good units are gone, and prices have been raised for the rest, so NOW people are rushing in with their deposits? Whatever that logic is, it’s priceless…
“Condos can easily drop 30-40% in SF during a correction. Any buyer at these new buildings should be prepared financially for this sort of event whether it happens or not. It is definitely a risk.”
Name a place or time in san francisco where a condo dropped 30-40%?? For numbers sake, say $1,000,000 to $650,000? Sure a 10-15% dip could happen easily, but unless there’s some unforeseen catastrophe (and no one wants that to happen) a 30-40% won’t happen. I just don’t see a precedence where values drop that much in Sf…
“Condos can easily drop 30-40% in SF during a correction. Any buyer at these new buildings should be prepared financially for this sort of event whether it happens or not. It is definitely a risk.”
Name a place or time in san francisco where a condo dropped 30-40%?? For numbers sake, say $1,000,000 to $650,000? Sure a 10-15% dip could happen easily, but unless there’s some unforeseen catastrophe (and no one wants that to happen) a 30-40% won’t happen. I just don’t see a precedence where values drop that much in Sf…
If mortgage rates revert back to the mean of the past 20-30 years, which would take them to 8-10% instead of 6% today, prices could definitely drop 30-40%
“Nobody can predict the time of the crash. However, common sense suggests that $800 / sqft -> $1000 / sq ft -> $1200 / sq ft -> $1400 / sqft -> $1600 / sqft -> … cannot go on forever. And it won’t 🙂 Enjoy the ride!”
Well I’ll admit this much. Folks that bought at places like Brannan and 88 King for $1400+/sqft in 2005 are certainly underwater at this point, but I don’t see those condos falling to $800/sqft (well, maybe 88 King).
Regarding Infinity and 1Rincon, folks that got in early at ~$850-1000/sqft should be ok. But I certainly don’t want to be the one that paid $1200/sqft for one of those units…
There is zero precedence for a 30-40% drop in San Francisco…but there’s also zero precedence for the run up we’ve seen over the past six years, lax lending standards, cheap money and total divergence from fundamentals. I doubt SF will “crash” but like it or not we’re in uncharted territory without any meaningful “precedence” to guide us in one direction or the other.
A decade of price stagnation will certainly do the job in real terms – not beyond the realms of possibility, imo.
There is zero precedence for a 30-40% drop in San Francisco
If you divide the price of the house into its rental value and its speculative value (the cost above the rental value) we’ve had plenty of times where the speculative value has dropped by 50 and more. The rental value will of course stay relatively constant.
Of course, the speculative value of a home has rarely been more than about 20% of the price of a home. So when the speculative value drops by 50%, the total price of the home drops by around 10%.
Now things are different: in some places, the price of a home is as much as 50% speculative. If that drops by 50%, the price of the home could drop by 25%. Plenty of precedent for that.
“but unless there’s some unforeseen catastrophe (and no one wants that to happen) a 30-40% won’t happen”
Thing is that the “unforeseen” in San Francisco is actually foreseeable. Just not exactly clear when.
no wonder this city has recently had a difficult time getting anything done…the amount of negativity is overbearing. it once was the city that knew how because of its vision, pride, and optimism.
can we rekindle?
I seriously doubt these extreme negative comments are coming from current SF home owners, investors, and/or buyers. Instead, they’re probably:
1. Fence sitters waiting for the market to fall so they can buy.
2. Disgruntled renters unable to afford property in SF.
3. People that were forced to sell or foreclosed on their property recently.
4. People that missed out on early pricing at 1Rincon/Infinity.
Did I miss any?
Extreme positive comments could be coming from
1. Cheerleaders with properties for sale hoping the market perks up so properties move.
2. New landlords adjusting to something they haven’t dealt with before RISK.
3. Investors with a looming rate adjustment on that interest only ARM and a rent controlled property.
4. 1Rincon/Infinity contract holders wondering what the market will be telling them when they will have to decide whether to sign their name 30+ times on all those $1MM loan docs.
This is what is beautiful about a free market economy. For most transactions both parties truly believe that they are doing the right thing at the time.
Saying that one should be prepared for a “possible” 30-40% price drop isn’t an “extremely negative” comment, it’s just rational financial advice. Whether that price drop happens or not we won’t know for a few years, but if you’re buying a condo, you can’t just have wide eyed optimism about the future of real estate prices, you need to be prepared for a down scenario as well as an up scenario.
This is just rational financial planning. The scary thing about the current market is that “rational financial planning” is considered “extreme negativity” by the boosters.
“1. Fence sitters waiting for the market to fall so they can buy.
2. Disgruntled renters unable to afford property in SF.
3. People that were forced to sell or foreclosed on their property recently.
4. People that missed out on early pricing at 1Rincon/Infinity.
Did I miss any?”
Yes you did: people with brains!
Back to the original topic. I think these will ultimately be spacious units in a decent location. They are expensive, but isn’t everything? For someone who wants space and a patio, not view oriented, these still are a great location.
As was mentiond earlier, the traffic is not as bad as the naysayers want to think – mainly rush hour M-F. I for one would rather be sitting on my patio inhaling some fumes than sitting in the traffic inhaling the same fumes!! I also think the exhaust fumes are being overblown by the naysayers – this area is near the top of a hill and just off the bay. Its frequently very windy so i doubt those fumes are just hanging around. I think they’re getting blown over to Berkeley and landing in the trees by the field!
For me, it is not the traffic, but what is required to handle the traffic. I don’t like barren look the streets and sidewalk have within a one block radius of an onramp. No stores, no pedestrians, just not a great feel. I bought 1Rincon to rent and Infinity to live in.
“1. Fence sitters waiting for the market to fall so they can buy.
2. Disgruntled renters unable to afford property in SF.
3. People that were forced to sell or foreclosed on their property recently.
4. People that missed out on early pricing at 1Rincon/Infinity.
Did I miss any?
Yes you did: people with brains!”
Hmmm, ok so the thousands of people that are continuing to buy condos and houses in San Francisco have no brains?
The sky’s not falling people, it’s ok to feel good about owning a home. Optimism is healthy! Buy what you can afford and treat your home as a home and not a speculative investment and you’ll do fine.
And if the sky is falling(in SF), please provide some proof…
I don’t have any problem with the prices of these new developments. Real Estate is expensive in this city. What I don’t understand is the ridiculously high associaton fees. Who want to pay 600+ a month for God knows what. How much is dropping off your dry cleaning at the desk worth? Association fees are tax deductible and if they start that high, they’re only going to go up.
Association fees ensure that there is no way anyone renting these units out will be cashflow positive for decades to come.
But don’t you wonder where the money is going? Do you want to throw away hundreds of dollars a month for nothing?
Since this topic heavily revolves around the whole bridge on/off ramp, is there any detailed drawings available of what the final work on the bridge will look like once its done? I’m a little baffled by the current state its in. I can’t quite figure out what’s what…
“Since this topic heavily revolves around the whole bridge on/off ramp, is there any detailed drawings available of what the final work on the bridge will look like once its done? I’m a little baffled by the current state its in. I can’t quite figure out what’s what…”
It is really hard to find anything on the what the West Approach will look like when finished. I do know that the section of off-ramp that is right next to One Rincon, is temporary. The actual freeway will probably be at least 20 feet further away from the building. If you are getting on at First street and you look underneath, the temporary span has steel girders supporting it. The permanent sections are all concrete.
“But don’t you wonder where the money is going? Do you want to throw away hundreds of dollars a month for nothing?”
HOA fees cover building maintenance and services. You can see always see the books if you want to know the breakdown of exactly where your money is going. All condos have HOAs. $600 for One Rincon actually seems reasonable given the amenities. Part of the fee is put into a fund to pay for large projects such as painting.
It is no different than owning a house. With a house, you still need gardeners, paint, roof, etc. Of course you are not paying for a doorman but the rest of those things can add up fast.
[Editor’s Note: Good answer. A detailed discussion (or two) on how HOAs can vary by development can be found right here.]
“Name a place or time in san francisco where a condo dropped 30-40%?? For numbers sake, say $1,000,000 to $650,000? Sure a 10-15% dip could happen easily, but unless there’s some unforeseen catastrophe (and no one wants that to happen) a 30-40% won’t happen. I just don’t see a precedence where values drop that much in Sf…”
All I know is that it was as recent as 1983 or ’84 when Herb Cain in his column noted that a house in Pac Heights had sold for more than $1 million for the first time. We are are only twenty years into a dynamic period of real estate value escalation, including several deep periods of retrenchment. During this time house values have increased at twice the rate of incomes. Perhaps this can continue. I do not know ladies and gentlemen, but I think SF real estate is capable of doing the darndest of things, and I would’nt limit my imagination on the upside or the downside.
“It is really hard to find anything on the what the West Approach will look like when finished. I do know that the section of off-ramp that is right next to One Rincon, is temporary. The actual freeway will probably be at least 20 feet further away from the building. If you are getting on at First street and you look underneath, the temporary span has steel girders supporting it. The permanent sections are all concrete.”
I’ve tried finding renderings of the same, but to no avail. The most amount of information can be found here.
http://www.baybridgeinfo.org/Display.aspx?ID=9
There is a PR office noted on the website so you might be able to obtain more info. from them.
I live on Beale very close to the Bridge and you can pretty much tell from what has already been constructed that once the project has been completed, the west approach will reside much closer to the buildings on the south side of the approach and it looks like there will be a pretty generous amount of space in between the approach and the location of tower 1. Tower 2 will be built closer to Harrison Street than Tower 1 so it will benefit from even more space in between it and the approach.
What’s interesting about the video on the baybridgeinfo.org website is that construction won’t wrap until 2009 (having kicked off work in 2003).
Sounds like it will be noisy, dusty and dirty for the near future. Hopefully, the buildings in the area get their windows washed more often than normal starting this April…
“What’s interesting about the video on the baybridgeinfo.org website is that construction won’t wrap until 2009 (having kicked off work in 2003).”
Do you mean construction on the West Approach? If so, that’s not that bad. I won’t even be moving into my place at 1Rincon until the Spring of ’08 so it won’t last that long.
It will be interesting to see what this does for the traffic flow near the bridge once it’s completed…
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/03/28/BAGLEOTA273.DTL
The video said 2009 as a completion date for the west approach. Of course that could be January 2009, or December, 2009.
But, I would hate to be living in the clock tower building right now. I drove by there on Bryant last night with the window down in my car and the demolition had begun. Since the lower level is almost a tunnel with a level above it, the jackhammers echoed everywhere. It was really loud, and I’ve heard loud before…